GOP-dominated suburbs

[Torie]

The Twin Cities suburbs were traditionally settled by ruralites from the upper Midwest.  White flight never really occurred on a city wide basis in either twin city so it was usually people coming from the rural areas that had been crammed into tiny apartments or duplexed homes with individual rooms to rent.  This was due to the depression and war leading to under investment in new housing and demand was pent up as cities filled to the brim.  Those people, renting veterans, went first.

These suburbs were largely Republican.  Since the 90s, these burbs have moved left.  The exurbs are the heart of conservative activism...a lot of North Dakotans moved to MN in the last 30 years (before the oil boom) and they were the young suburbanites that fueled the rise of the MNGOPs right wing.

Now they are no longer dominating new development...exurbia is languishing and these GOP friendly Gen Xers are being replaced by Millennial Dems who are peppering the inner suburbs and 2nd ring burbs and turnung them DFL.

I haven't noticed this trend, at least not on the County level. If anything, Anoka has trended Pub, and Dakota hasn't moved much. It may be true for the higher end burbs in Hennepin County.

[Torie]

Look at Edina. Textbook example there.

Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.

[Torie]

Look at Edina. Textbook example there.

Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.

Edina prior to the 60s, had all sorts of discriminatory policies and country club rules aimed at keeping blacks and Jews out, this is exactly why St. Louis Park ended up with his well known Jewish population FYI. None of that matters anymore and the place has gone from the conservative country club dominated lily white enclave of its past to a pretty standard but slightly more affluent than most inner ring suburb now, but I haven't heard of any flood of any Jewish population in or anything, if anything I bet more blacks have. I mean sure Jews from SLP or southwest Minneapolis that find desirable housing there or whatever and want to move in have no real problem doing so or fear of discrimination now but it's not like there's anything drawing them there. Also worth noting that non-Jews in SLP are just as likely to be Democrats, I mean I go to chuch in SLP now. But that whole area just kind of screams "rich Democrats", the type of people who prefer to live in luxury condos or in the case of certain neighborhoods in southwest Minneapolis, real mansions, instead of the trashy newly built McMansions you'll find 15 miles west. I mean just look at this: http://www.50thandfrance.com And this is a relatively new development, Edina's current DFL state senator elected in 2012 is the first Democrat to represent Edina in the State Senate EVER.

Minnetonka has never been that Republican, but has definitely shifted Democratic, so much in fact that its DFL State Senator even survived 2010 and even after 2014 still has two DFL State Representatives. But it went from Gore winning it by about two points to Obama in 2012 winning it by 10 points. I think Minnetonka (as well as Hopkins) has also had a long standing Jewish population too though nowhere near as big as in SLP.

Edina went from 2.6% black in 2000 to 3% black in 2010. Obama carried it by 11 points in 2008 - not that Dem really.

[Torie]

Well in 2000 Edina actually voted for Bush.

In 2012 Obama's margin dropped to 7 points, trending Pub by about 30 basis points. Whatever Dem trend there was, has stalled. It's Dem PVI is about 1.5%.

But yes, in 2000 it had a Pub PVI of 3.5%. 2004 was the big Pub tanking in Edina (probably due to the Iraq war). It swung to a Dem PVI of 2.5% (a 6 point Dem trend). Now its back down a tad to a 1.5% Dem PVI.

[Torie]

The Milwaukee suburbs on the other hand are uniquely conservative for reasons that I don't quite understand. For some reason their conservative culture hasn't eroded to the same degree as other wealthy Midwestern suburbs, or if it has, those issues seem unimportant to those living there. Some have speculated things like talk radio or German ancestry play a unique role, but neither in and of itself seems to quite explain it.

I'm very glad to hear that the political anomaly of the Milwaukee suburbs is just as mysterious to someone on the right as it is to someone on the left. I have never been able to understand what drives the immediate counties to 70%+ Republican margins (particularly with Scott Walker). I never realized the impact and power of those suburbs until the recall in 2012 when Milwaukee was unable to cancel out its suburbs. I still cannot understand why those counties vote the way they do. Even a big Democratic victory like 2008 only cut the margins down, but nothing even remotely close to a win.

The below might help. First, the inner burbs are not Pub bastions. Second, they're white - very white. Third, the area has a rather 50's old fashioned type of economy, so the old management versus labor divide has more salience here still than in most places, keeping the bourgeoise in the Pub column, rather than decamping in droves as in places that have a more brains rather than brawn type economy. Just my little hypotheses anyway.