Prospective electoral vote allocation for the next decade

[solarstorm]

I've calculated the likely outcome of the future EV distribution.

Eight states are likely to lose one elector: AL, IL, MI, MN, OH, PA, RI, WV
Six states are likely to gain one elector: CA, CO, FL, NC, VA
Texas will probably gain even three electors.

Bye-bye, redundant Representative from Rhode Island! Bye-bye WV-03!
Poor Montanans! They will probably have to wait another decade to be fairly represented.

Democratic states: +2-5=-3
Republican states: +3-2=+1
Swing states:         +3-1=+2

[Sol]

I'm pretty sure NC is set to gain one?

[solarstorm]

I'm pretty sure NC is set to gain one?

Oh, sorry! You're right.
I somehow mixed up this decade's EVs of MI and NC.

[muon2]

This was my projected apportionment when the last Census estimates came out in Dec. It looks like your allocation is mostly in agreement with mine.

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2014 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The only change since my projections last year is that CA is back to +1 and NY is back to -1 as they were after the 2012 estimate instead of even last year. They continue to be the most likely to change, and there is some shifting in the other bubble seats. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CO-8, TX-39, VA-12, CA-54, and AL-7 (#435).
The next five in line are NY-27, OR-6, AZ-10, MT-2, MN-8.

[solarstorm]

Wait ... I did it all in vain??? 😨

[muon2]

Wait ... I did it all in vain??? 😨

Not necessarily. It's a good mathematical exercise, and you have one slight difference. I have AL getting seat number 435 and NY getting number 436. You have those states flipped compared to me, but both states will be on the bubble either way.

[solarstorm]

Wait ... I did it all in vain??? 😨

Not necessarily. It's a good mathematical exercise, and you have one slight difference. I have AL getting seat number 435 and NY getting number 436. You have those states flipped compared to me, but both states will be on the bubble either way.

Indeed. The divide between Alabama and New York really seems to be the pivotal line.

New York's remainder: 0.4936949502
Alabama's remainder:  0.4657998807

But I did it via mental math. Perhaps I miscalculated.

[muon2]

Wait ... I did it all in vain??? 😨

Not necessarily. It's a good mathematical exercise, and you have one slight difference. I have AL getting seat number 435 and NY getting number 436. You have those states flipped compared to me, but both states will be on the bubble either way.

Indeed. The divide between Alabama and New York really seems to be the pivotal line.

New York's remainder: 0.4936949502
Alabama's remainder:  0.4657998807

But I did it via mental math. Perhaps I miscalculated.

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

[politicallefty]

I suspect CA-54 is quite tenuous at the moment, but its prospects have been improving over the years, no? (I suspect that the financial crisis played a role in California not gaining a seat in 2010.)

For the sake of comparison, how was 2010 looking at this point in 2005?

Also, for the sake of curiosity, based on those projections, where are each state's additional seats beyond 435 in the lineup? (Where is CA-55, ID-03, NM-04, etc?)

[solarstorm]

I suspect CA-54 is quite tenuous at the moment, but its prospects have been improving over the years, no? (I suspect that the financial crisis played a role in California not gaining a seat in 2010.)

For the sake of comparison, how was 2010 looking at this point in 2005?

I think a comparison would be pointless, as Katrina threw off too much.

[solarstorm]

I suspect CA-54 is quite tenuous at the moment, but its prospects have been improving over the years, no? (I suspect that the financial crisis played a role in California not gaining a seat in 2010.)

For the sake of comparison, how was 2010 looking at this point in 2005?

Also, for the sake of curiosity, based on those projections, where are each state's additional seats beyond 435 in the lineup? (Where is CA-55, ID-03, NM-04, etc?)

According to my list, which muon2 says is based on the wrong calculation, these are the follow-ups:

 Alabama
 Oregon
 Arizona
 Minnesota
 West Virginia
 Montana
 Rhode Island
 Oklahoma
 Louisiana
 Delaware
 Idaho
 Ohio
 Maryland
 Utah
 Massachusetts
 South Dakota
 Iowa
 Florida
 North Dakota
 Missouri
 Alaska

[solarstorm]

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

I've never heard of it before. I did the calculations "by instinct".
And as we all know that Wyoming and Vermont are waaay too underrepresented in the Electoral College, a method that helps smaller states "on the bubble" is much-needed...

[muon2]

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

I've never heard of it before. I did the calculations "by instinct".
And as we all know that Wyoming and Vermont are waaay too underrepresented in the Electoral College, a method that helps smaller states "on the bubble" is much-needed...

The method of remainders results in some well known paradoxes, such as where the number of seats is increased but an individual state's share goes down. Huntington-Hill avoids that paradox and minimizes the percentage differences between the populations of the districts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really hope that map hold, as the balance doesn't seem as bad for Democratic States as the last 5 reapportionments were. It would be fantastic to see NY finally stop the bleeding. CO, VA, NC, WV and AL would also be great news.

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

I've never heard of it before. I did the calculations "by instinct".
And as we all know that Wyoming and Vermont are waaay too underrepresented in the Electoral College, a method that helps smaller states "on the bubble" is much-needed...

The method of remainders results in some well known paradoxes, such as where the number of seats is increased but an individual state's share goes down. Huntington-Hill avoids that paradox and minimizes the percentage differences between the populations of the districts.

The best method is Webster's IMO (known as D'Hondt Method in Europe). Divisors of 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 etc.

[bgwah]

Poor Montanans! They will probably have to wait another decade to be fairly represented.

They still have as many Senators as California. I'm not too concerned...

[Frodo]

Why isn't Georgia getting another electoral vote when North Carolina and Virginia are likely to? 

[jimrtex]

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

I've never heard of it before. I did the calculations "by instinct".

Don't feel too bad, that is how Congress did it as well.  The Alabama (and  related paradoxes was discovered by trial and error).

Another possible difference is how you estimated the 2020 population.

[jimrtex]

Why isn't Georgia getting another electoral vote when North Carolina and Virginia are likely to? 

Georgia has one more representative than North Carolina, with only a small difference in population.  They got a favorable rounding in 2010.  The two states are growing at about the same rate.   There is a potential for North Carolina to go ahead of Georgia.  Georgia has all of its eggs in one basket.  At some point that might make it a less desirable place to live.

Virginia hasn't added a representative for a few decades.

[solarstorm]

The seats aren't apportioned by remainders. The geometric mean (Huntington-Hill) is used instead, and that tends to help smaller states on the bubble.

I've never heard of it before. I did the calculations "by instinct".
And as we all know that Wyoming and Vermont are waaay too underrepresented in the Electoral College, a method that helps smaller states "on the bubble" is much-needed...

The method of remainders results in some well known paradoxes, such as where the number of seats is increased but an individual state's share goes down. Huntington-Hill avoids that paradox and minimizes the percentage differences between the populations of the districts.

The funny thing is: Now that paradox re-emerges on Alabama, and it's all about 8 electoral votes again.
Coincidence or Illuminati?

[solarstorm]

Can anyone explain to me the changes in Minnesota, Rhode Island and Alabama*? They don't make any sense to me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can anyone explain to me the changes in Minnesota, Rhode Island and Alabama*? They don't make any sense to me.

Why wouldn't they make sense? All these States have seen below-average growth rates for at least 50 years.

[solarstorm]

Can anyone explain to me the changes in Minnesota, Rhode Island and Alabama*? They don't make any sense to me.

Why wouldn't they make sense? All these States have seen below-average growth rates for at least 50 years.

Yes, but why have they been growing so slowly?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can anyone explain to me the changes in Minnesota, Rhode Island and Alabama*? They don't make any sense to me.

Why wouldn't they make sense? All these States have seen below-average growth rates for at least 50 years.

Yes, but why have they been growing so slowly?

Because they are located in regions people are moving away from. The Northeast, Midwest and inner South all have undergone  a significant emigration, to the advantages of the Sun Belt States.