Realistically, how does the GOP or Dem Party hope to secure young voters?
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  Realistically, how does the GOP or Dem Party hope to secure young voters?
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Author Topic: Realistically, how does the GOP or Dem Party hope to secure young voters?  (Read 3372 times)
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« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2015, 12:55:44 AM »


I think young people should worry about a balanced budget since we are 18-19 trillion dollars in debt. 

It doesn't matter what you think, the fact is they don't - and won't - care about that kind of stuff. In fact, I have a theory that nobody actually cares about the debt or a balanced budget, but younger voters don't really pretend to. The debt is going to go up no matter who takes office.

There is no issue that the GOP holds as of now that is advantageous to them with regards to younger voters. This is the age of Tinder and sexting and being against birth control isn't going to fly.

The good news for your side is that younger voters are becoming increasingly disengaged with the political process because of all these gadgets and gizomos and netflixes and vines and myspaces running around. So youth participation going even further downhill is good news for the GOP.

Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

They say they do but they don't actually care about the deficit because nobody actually cares about the deficit.
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jfern
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« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2015, 12:57:14 AM »

Once young voters find out that Rand Paul is pro warmongering with Iran, anti net neutrality, anti pot legalization, and anti gay marriage, I don't think he'll do as well with young voters.
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Blair
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« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2015, 01:29:02 AM »


I think young people should worry about a balanced budget since we are 18-19 trillion dollars in debt. 

It doesn't matter what you think, the fact is they don't - and won't - care about that kind of stuff. In fact, I have a theory that nobody actually cares about the debt or a balanced budget, but younger voters don't really pretend to. The debt is going to go up no matter who takes office.

There is no issue that the GOP holds as of now that is advantageous to them with regards to younger voters. This is the age of Tinder and sexting and being against birth control isn't going to fly.

The good news for your side is that younger voters are becoming increasingly disengaged with the political process because of all these gadgets and gizomos and netflixes and vines and myspaces running around. So youth participation going even further downhill is good news for the GOP.

Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

They say they do but they don't actually care about the deficit because nobody actually cares about the deficit.

I actually agree with this. The deficit is never used as a big rallying cry because people aren't motivated by it. The GOP would never attack because they want more tax cuts, and more military spending, and the dems would never tackle it because they want enhanced social care etc. I honestly agree that the deficit just isn't an 'excitement' issue that is going to drive people my age to the polls.

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jfern
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« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2015, 02:03:01 AM »

Young voters are more libertarian-leaning in 2015 than liberal-leaning. I don't think they will vote Dem unless the GOP elects someone like Bush or Rubio. I could see the young vote being split between Walker and Hilary. At the same time, I honestly do not see optimism.

Why do people keep saying "libertarian-leaning?" I see no signs of this myself.
I've just looked at studies. They find millenials more fiscally conservative and socially tolerant. We are also more skeptical about war and the surveillance state. These are all libertarian-leaning issues.
Once young voters find out that Rand Paul is pro warmongering with Iran, anti net neutrality, anti pot legalization, and anti gay marriage, I don't think he'll do as well with young voters.

Well he isn't pro-war with Iran. That's false. For pot, there isn't a single candidate in 2016 that has said they will legalize pot. His decriminalization rhetoric is the closest. For gay marriage, he did take a more middle ground on this issue.

He was one of the 47 traitors who undermined the peace agreements.
That the others aren't any better on pot isn't a compelling reason for them to vote Paul
He opposes gay marriage, there is no middle ground any more on that issue.
And I guess his opposition to net neutrality is simply indefensible?
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« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2015, 05:22:21 AM »

Young voters are more libertarian-leaning in 2015 than liberal-leaning. I don't think they will vote Dem unless the GOP elects someone like Bush or Rubio. I could see the young vote being split between Walker and Hilary. At the same time, I honestly do not see optimism.

Incorrect. Young people are just as liberal on economic issues as they are on social issues.

According to the Pew Research, "nearly seven in 10 millennials (68 percent) support same-sex marriage, a marked increase even from a decade ago, when 44 percent backed it. Fifty-five percent of millennials say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States and have a chance to apply for citizenship. Fifty-six percent of millennials say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. On each of those issues, millennials’ views come far closer to the Democratic Party’s position than where the Republican Party — and in particular, its base — finds itself.

And, on the right role for government to play in people’s lives, a majority of millennials (53 percent) favor a bigger government that provides more services, while 38 percent find a smaller government with fewer services more appealing. That’s almost exactly the opposite of the other generations Pew tested; all three of them — silent, baby boomer and X — preferred a smaller government.

About six-in-ten Millennials (61%) oppose benefit cuts as a way to address the long-term funding problems of Social Security, a view held by about seven-in-ten older adults.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/
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King
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« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2015, 06:59:53 AM »

Romney won young whites. The problem is that young whites are a minority of young voters.

The GOP needs to fundamentally stop sh**ting on nonwhites
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2015, 11:05:03 AM »

Romney won young whites. The problem is that young whites are a minority of young voters.

The GOP needs to fundamentally stop sh**ting on nonwhites

How do they sh**t on non-whites?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2015, 11:32:23 AM »

It seems that Democrats have already secured the 25-29 year old subgroup of the youth vote. If you look at many of the exit polls even from the disastrous 2014 elections, the Democratic candidate almost always won the 25-29 year olds while losing the 18-24 year olds. As someone in the 25-29 year old range (speaking from personal experience), it'll be very hard for this age to go Republican. We grew up during the Clinton years when the economy was strong and then came of age during the Bush era, which made many of us anti-Republican. Obama's [alleged] "coolness" appeal in 2008 helped solidify the current 25-29 year olds in the Democratic camp. 2012 certainly didn't help with Romney going from a Massachusetts moderate to a "severely conservative" candidate on every issue. I think my age group will support Hillary in 2016 by strong margins, inspired by the historical aspect of her campaign but also out of nostalgia for the good ole days. True, social issues hurt the GOP with younger voters, but there's also a sentiment that the current Republican Party is anti-science and the climate change denial doesn't do them any favors when many younger voters do believe that climate change is real. Abortion is always going to be a 50-50 issue. They should fold on marriage equality and stop all the draconian "religious freedom" bills that are passing the GOP-controlled state legislatures, because that's only going to make them come across as more anti-gay and homophobic than they already are with young voters, who overwhelmingly support LGBT rights.

Here are some of the 2014 exit polls that I could find for the youth vote (for the U.S. Senate):
ALASKA
18-24: Sullivan 51, Begich 43
25-29: Begich 50, Sullivan 39 (Begich's best age group)

ARKANSAS
18-24: Cotton 48, Pryor 47 (Cotton's worst/Pryor's best age group)
25-29: Cotton 53, Pryor 44

GEORGIA
18-24: Nunn 61, Perdue 37 (Nunn's best age group)
25-29: Nunn 55, Perdue 43

IOWA
18-24: Braley 51, Ernst 46
25-29: Braley 52, Ernst 45 (Braley's best age group)

KANSAS
18-24: Orman 54, Roberts 43
25-29: Orman 60, Roberts 36 (Orman's best age group)

KENTUCKY
18-24: McConnell 53, Grimes 42
25-29: Grimes 52, McConnell 43 (Grimes's best age group)

LOUISIANA (Pre-Runoff)
18-24: Landrieu 47, Cassidy 38, Maness 12
25-29: Landrieu 53, Cassidy 35, Maness 7 (Landrieu's best age group)

MICHIGAN
18-24: Peters 54, Land 40
25-29: Peters 59, Land 34 (Peters's best age group)

MINNESOTA
18-24: Not Polled
25-29: Franken 61, McFadden 36 (Franken's best age group)

NORTH CAROLINA
18-24: Hagan 47, Tillis 44
25-29: Hagan 59, Tillis 34 (Hagan's best age group)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
18-24: Shaheen 54, Brown 46
25-29: Shaheen 62, Brown 36 (Shaheen's best age group)

TEXAS
18-24: Not Polled
25-29: Cornyn 52, Alameel 35

VIRGINIA
18-24: Warner 54, Gillespie 41
25-29: Not Polled

This bodes ill for Republicans in the 2020s and 2030s, when Republicans will have shown how extreme they are -- and when people now in their late 20s will then start running for high public office. Millennial adults will find their own generation more likely to address their economic and cultural concerns than will old X and Boom pols (unless the X and Boom pols have kept pace with the times) with enriching the 'right people' and continuing the Culture Wars. Educational quality will matter far more than cozy deals between lenders and over-priced, substandard colleges to get students deeply in debt for questionable education -- or with pushing "Abstinence Only" sex education (which does not work), school prayer (one would expect that to be settled now), young-earth creationism, and denial of climate change.

The Millennial Generation is much more amenable to institutions, whether Big Business, government, or labor unions, so long as they are competent, sensible, equitable, and honest. But if those institutions are incompetent, irrational, unjust, or corrupt one can expect the Millennial Generation to have any stake in the status quo.

18-24? They are still in the honeymoon phase with the economic order. They can outgrow that fast with some serious disappointments.       
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King
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« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2015, 12:31:30 PM »

Romney won young whites. The problem is that young whites are a minority of young voters.

The GOP needs to fundamentally stop sh**ting on nonwhites

How do they sh**t on non-whites?

Obama may be re-elected President while massively, more than any other Democrat, losing the white vote. That's gotta make him feel subpar.
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hopper
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« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2015, 12:45:31 PM »

Young voters are more libertarian-leaning in 2015 than liberal-leaning. I don't think they will vote Dem unless the GOP elects someone like Bush or Rubio. I could see the young vote being split between Walker and Hilary. At the same time, I honestly do not see optimism.

Incorrect. Young people are just as liberal on economic issues as they are on social issues.

According to the Pew Research, "nearly seven in 10 millennials (68 percent) support same-sex marriage, a marked increase even from a decade ago, when 44 percent backed it. Fifty-five percent of millennials say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the United States and have a chance to apply for citizenship. Fifty-six percent of millennials say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. On each of those issues, millennials’ views come far closer to the Democratic Party’s position than where the Republican Party — and in particular, its base — finds itself.

And, on the right role for government to play in people’s lives, a majority of millennials (53 percent) favor a bigger government that provides more services, while 38 percent find a smaller government with fewer services more appealing. That’s almost exactly the opposite of the other generations Pew tested; all three of them — silent, baby boomer and X — preferred a smaller government.

About six-in-ten Millennials (61%) oppose benefit cuts as a way to address the long-term funding problems of Social Security, a view held by about seven-in-ten older adults.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/

56% of Millenials support abortion in all or most cases-I myself really don't believe we should have abortion on demand.

Size of government-How can we have a bigger government when the government can't meet what it has on the books now? I really don't think about the size of government myself but I ask myself do we really need this particular program? Can this part of the government be consolidated with that part of the government? That type of thing.

Social Security-The program has to be reformed doing something wether you up the retirement age or raise SS Taxes coming out of people's paychecks. Make people who can afford benefit cuts just take the benefit cuts.
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hopper
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« Reply #35 on: March 17, 2015, 12:53:24 PM »


I think young people should worry about a balanced budget since we are 18-19 trillion dollars in debt. 

It doesn't matter what you think, the fact is they don't - and won't - care about that kind of stuff. In fact, I have a theory that nobody actually cares about the debt or a balanced budget, but younger voters don't really pretend to. The debt is going to go up no matter who takes office.

There is no issue that the GOP holds as of now that is advantageous to them with regards to younger voters. This is the age of Tinder and sexting and being against birth control isn't going to fly.

The good news for your side is that younger voters are becoming increasingly disengaged with the political process because of all these gadgets and gizomos and netflixes and vines and myspaces running around. So youth participation going even further downhill is good news for the GOP.

Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

They say they do but they don't actually care about the deficit because nobody actually cares about the deficit.

I actually agree with this. The deficit is never used as a big rallying cry because people aren't motivated by it. The GOP would never attack because they want more tax cuts, and more military spending, and the dems would never tackle it because they want enhanced social care etc. I honestly agree that the deficit just isn't an 'excitement' issue that is going to drive people my age to the polls.


This is the sad part. I never understood why the GOP wants more defense spending when there is basically no use for it. Why do the Dems never tackle social programs that are going to broke someday? Because of the crazies on the left? I honesty don't think I will see a dime of SS myself because people in both parties put their political careers first unless SS reform is done.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #36 on: March 17, 2015, 01:10:12 PM »


Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

"Reagan proved that deficits don't matter." --Dick Cheney, Republican
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« Reply #37 on: March 17, 2015, 01:12:31 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2015, 01:18:15 PM by TimTurner »


Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

Correction: Literally every republican in existence cliam to care about the deficit when a Democrat is president.
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King
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« Reply #38 on: March 17, 2015, 01:20:13 PM »


Literally every republican in existence cares about the deficit, along with a number of conservative democrats and some independents. (Fact).

Correction: Literally every republican in existence cliam to care about the deficit when a Democrat is president.

Yes. Walter Mondale and the Democrats campaigned heavily about it in the 1980s. Deficit and debt woes is nothing more than a fearmonger campaign whenever a party is hopelessly out of power and reaching for an issue in otherwise prosperous times.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3r_JyoUVWKg

"Tha debt is going to come and steal your children!!11"
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Blair
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« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2015, 01:32:00 PM »

Young voters are more libertarian-leaning in 2015 than liberal-leaning. I don't think they will vote Dem unless the GOP elects someone like Bush or Rubio. I could see the young vote being split between Walker and Hilary. At the same time, I honestly do not see optimism.

Why do people keep saying "libertarian-leaning?" I see no signs of this myself.
I've just looked at studies. They find millenials more fiscally conservative and socially tolerant. We are also more skeptical about war and the surveillance state. These are all libertarian-leaning issues.
Once young voters find out that Rand Paul is pro warmongering with Iran, anti net neutrality, anti pot legalization, and anti gay marriage, I don't think he'll do as well with young voters.

Well he isn't pro-war with Iran. That's false. For pot, there isn't a single candidate in 2016 that has said they will legalize pot. His decriminalization rhetoric is the closest. For gay marriage, he did take a more middle ground on this issue.

I'm a Rand Paul fan, but his gay marriage view is awful. It's the same as Ted Cruz, and is basically an appeal to the Social conservatives.

He's not pro LGBT
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2015, 02:16:02 PM »

Young voters will always lean Dem.  They certainly won't be as enthused or active for Hillary as they were for Obama but they will be more enthused for Hillary than say, Kerry or Gore. Young women will probably find the narrative of the first female president to be very enticing.

The youngest voters DID NOT lean Democratic in 1980, 1984, or 1988. Accepting the Howe-Strauss division between Boomers (last born in 1960) and Generation X (first born in 1961), X voters have been more conservative than any other generation of American voters since the Lost born in the latter part of the 19th century (1883-1900).  Except for personal sexuality, they were much more conservative than America at large on economics, the environment, and labor-management relations. Few people saw the extent of the Reagan landslides of 1980 and 1984 as they did and that Dukakis could collapse as he did. Not until the Republican Party started talking about abortion bans did Generation X start looking at Democrats as a viable option.



One caveat here.  Generation X didn't flock to the Democrats because the GOP pushed the pedal-to-the-metal on social issues; rather, Generation X influence has gradually molded the Democratic Party into one much more compatible with their generational ideology. 
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