What if John Kerry...

[Moooooo]

2 weeks before the Iowa caucus John Kerry is struck by a MAJOR/CATASTROPHIC scandal, which cripples his campaign...

How does the 2004 Democratic primary playout?

How does the 2004 General election playout?

[Rob]

Edwards is nominated, and Bush wins narrowly in the general.

[Jake]

Well, Kerry's support base (10% or so) disappears and probably coalesces behind Gephardt, possibly spurring him to 2nd place behind Dean.  NH is won by Dean with Clark in 2nd place. At that point, unless Edwards and Clark can sap away Dean's momentum, Dean would run away with it.

The General election would've played out very differently than it did. Dean would inevitably stick his foot in his mouth repeatedly and Iraq would've been the dominant issue. The key would be whether Dean could put focus on his record as Governor instead of his far-left positions he took in the primary. I honestly don't see Dean taking any Bush states, though he probably only would've lost Wisconsin.

[Sam Spade]

Only Dean (and maybe Clark) had the money to fill the position.

Edwards and Gephardt were stuck behind the federally mandated funding rules and it would have sunk both.

Both Dean and Clark would have done worse imo.  Dean, because of his positions and loose mouth.  Clark, because he was an incompetant campaigner who knew nothing about economic or social policy.

[Moooooo]

Edwards is nominated, and Bush wins narrowly in the general.

Im always interested in who you would vote for. So, who would it be... Edwards or Bush?

[J.R. Brown]

I could see Edwards pulling ahead of Dean in Iowa, but Dean would inevitably take New Hampshire. Edwards would take South Carolina, North Carolina, and Clark would probably still take Oklahoma. It would all come down to Super Tuesday. I think in the end, Dean would do something stupid and Edwards would end up being the nominee with either Gephardt or Clark on the ticket with him, probably Gephardt. I counldn't see Edwards choosing Dean as his VP in any scenario, even if Dean had come in a close second to Edwards. I think in the end it would have been an Edwards/Gephardt ticket. The general probably would have been something like this.



Edwards/Gephardt 290 50%
Bush/Cheney 248 49%

[Moooooo]

Only Dean (and maybe Clark) had the money to fill the position.

Edwards and Gephardt were stuck behind the federally mandated funding rules and it would have sunk both.

Its kind of sad when you think about it.  If you don't have BOAT LOAD of money... You got about a snowball's chance in hell.

[Moooooo]

Is Gephardt really that popular statewide?  If so, what held him back from running for senate all those years?

[Jake]

Probably his seniority in the House.