CNN/ORC national poll: Clinton leads all GOP candidates by double digits

[Mr. Morden]

CNN/ORC national poll:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/03/17/poll.2016.pdf

Clinton 55%
Bush 40%

Clinton 55%
Christie 40%

Clinton 55%
Rubio 42%

Clinton 55%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 54%
Paul 43%

Clinton 56%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Walker 40%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:

Clinton 53/44% for +9%
Carson 22/14% for +8%
Huckabee 35/30% for +5%
Paul 31/30% for +1%
Walker 21/21% for +/-0
Rubio 25/26% for -1%
Biden 43/46% for -3%
Bush 31/47% for -16%
Christie 25/44% for -19%

[Tender Branson]

The new "dark horses" seem to be Kasich and Carson, while Bush and Walker battle it out and kill themselves in the next months.

If Kasich waits until September, he might still have a good chance during the primaries as a late "undamaged" entry.

PS: This poll is of all adults, not even registered voters.

[Likely Voter]

compared to their last poll in December, Hillary has actually increased her margins slightly. So while emailgate has hurt her a bit in favorables, it isn't translating into votes (at least yet).

[King]

RIP Hillary

[pbrower2a]

CNN/ORC national poll:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/03/17/poll.2016.pdf

Clinton 55%
Bush 40%

Clinton 55%
Christie 40%

Clinton 55%
Rubio 42%

Clinton 55%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 54%
Paul 43%

Clinton 56%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Walker 40%

We need to remind ourselves that Hillary Clinton in the mid 50s is close to the highest percentage of the vote that any Presidential nominee got since 1972 -- Ronald Reagan in 1984, at 58.77%. There is little room for growth of Clinton support.

....

PS: This poll is of all adults, not even registered voters.

For an open seat the top two are George H W Bush at 53.77% in 1988 and Obama at 52.86%  in 2008. "Adult" polling can include people who will not vote even if they could include aliens, persons who will lose their voting rights due to criminal convictions, and people who will die before they have a chance to cast a vote. It excludes persons now 16 and 17 who might vote in 2016.

"Adults" has some bearing on "voters" in an election eighteen months away. A partisan Republican can only see trouble if nobody is even close to Hillary Clinton. That nobody gets beyond 43% suggests that nobody will be close. Turnout may not decide the 2016 Presidential election, but it can decide other races.

Here is what is scary for a Republican: although Hillary Clinton is not building on the Reagan-like margins that Obama got in some states in 2008, any increase in raw vote percentage has to be coming from states that Obama lost. Such may be more relevant to Senatorial and Congressional races.   

[136or142]

Also from the poll
Democratic Primary
Hillary Rodham Clinton 62%
Joe Biden 15%
Elizabeth Warren 10% (she's not running CNN!)
Bernie Sanders 3%
James Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%

Republican Primary Poll
Jeb Bush 16%
Scott Walker 13%
Rand Paul 12%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Ben Carson 9%
Chris Christie 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 4%
John Kasich 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Santorum 1%

[Landslide Lyndon]

RIP Hillary

Ageist!!!

[HAnnA MArin County]

Further proof that the neoconservative warmongering corporatist superhawk cannot win and that we need a principled progressive like Warren or Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

Also from the poll
Democratic Primary
Hillary Rodham Clinton 62%
Joe Biden 15%
Elizabeth Warren 10% (she's not running CNN!)
Bernie Sanders 3%
James Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 1%

Republican Primary Poll
Jeb Bush 16%
Scott Walker 13%
Rand Paul 12%
Mike Huckabee 10%
Ben Carson 9%
Chris Christie 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 4%
John Kasich 2%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Rick Santorum 1%

We already have a thread discussing the primary poll part of this on the primary polling board:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=209114.0

[IceSpear]

but...but...but...muh emailgate

I thought Hillary would be trailing after the "scandal" sunk in!

[IceSpear]

So I just noticed that Hillary leads Jeb 85-14 among nonwhites. But the media told me he would be competitive in California! #muhhispanicwife

[Matty]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

The same poll you are using shows that Hillary has a 43% favorable rating and a 54% unfavorable rating among all whites. That's 11 points underwater. That works for someone like Obama who can pull a very large minority turnout, but it's not good news in HRC's case.

As others have mentioned, this poll's respondent pool is basically people who answered their phones. It's not Registered Voters, much less Likely Voters.

Did you notice this little gem in the poll results:

SIX percent of respondents never heard of Joe Biden, you know, the guy who is in his 7th year as Vice President of the United States? That's sixty (60) Americans in this poll who have never heard of their Vice President. Now, if someone wants to say many of those were just yanking the pollster's chain, go with that - but in doing so, it discredits all of their other answers to the questions as well.

"Among the entire sample, 28% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 48% described themselves as Independents or members of another party."


In 2014, according to Gallup, 31% identified themselves as Democrats, 25% identified themselves as Republicans and 42% identified themselves as Independents. So all in all, this CNN poll very closely monitors those numbers. But there's a disparity in the poll that admittedly does not affect the Hillary Vs 'Whoever" results that is the subject of your OP, but nevertheless is noteworthy because it poisons the well of the Democratic and Republican nominee portion of the poll.

Note (for the Democratic choice for nominee portion):

"BASED ON 278 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE
THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 188 WHO
DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 466 DEMOCRATS"

So the results on the Democratic side reflect 60% Dems and 40% "Dem-leaning" Independents.

Now look at the Republican nominee section:

"BASED ON 229 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 221 WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 450 REPUBLICANS"

The results on the Republican nomination side thus represent 51% Republicans and 49% Independents ---- +2 party identifiers vs. +20 party identifiers for the Dems. A huge disparity. It's significance? 91% of the Independents expressed a "lean" toward one party or the other. (188+221=409--.42x1009=424--409d.424=.91). That in itself is highly suspect, but be that as it may. What is the takeaway from these numbers?

This.

52% of Independents in the poll leaned Republican while only 44% leaned Democrat. If this poll has credibility, and the Gallup Independent percentage of 42% is split accordingly, the 6 point Dem advantage in self-identification in Gallup becomes just 2.5 points, a far more viable hill to climb for the GOP in 2016.

But then again, after all such analysis is completed, analyzed and digested - the end result is that it's just another poll taken ten and a half months before the Iowa caucuses.

[IceSpear]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.

[porky88]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.

Hasn't minority turnout increased in every election since '92? It just shot way up with Obama at the top of the ticket. Nonetheless, I think the point IcySpear is making is that a 43 percent favorable rating for a democrat is a very good number. I think Gore received 40 percent of the white vote, and he won the overall popular vote. Kerry came within one state of the presidency with 39 percent.

In other words, even if minority turnout falls, anything above 40 percent among whites and Hillary is probably elected the next president of the United States. Unless the Republican party dramatically changes their strategy.

[Mr. Morden]

SIX percent of respondents never heard of Joe Biden, you know, the guy who is in his 7th year as Vice President of the United States? That's sixty (60) Americans in this poll who have never heard of their Vice President.

That's not the least bit surprising.  A Newsweek poll in 2011 showed that 29% of people polled couldn't name the vice president:

http://www.newsweek.com/how-ignorant-are-americans-66053

Other polls over the years have shown similar numbers.  It's not uncommon for a solid minority of people to not know who the VP is.  There are plenty of people out there who don't follow the news at all.

[pbrower2a]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.

Of course there were white people who voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney because Barack Obama is black.  How many? We will never know. But that is likely larger than the number of blacks who voted for Obama because he is black.

I look at some of the splits, and I see a weakening of regional strengths of the Republican Party in the last two Presidential elections. 

 

[Landslide Lyndon]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.

Following your logic, many women will turn out to vote Hillary because she will be the first woman President and they will more than offset any declining turnout among blacks.
Also, Clinton was much more popular among Hispanics during the 2008 primary and if she chooses a Hispanic running mate this will help her too.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The same poll you are citing shows that Hillary's favorability rating is at its lowest point since June of 2008, and her unfavorability rating is at its highest point since June of 2008. (That's using CNN-sponsored polling's OWN past numbers - it's not comparing X to Y.)

So what? It's nearly the same as her favorables in May 2014. Regardless, even Hillary's numbers in June 08 are far superior to any of the Republican candidates.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In Obama's comfortable 2012 victory, he lost the white vote 59-39. So a 43-54 favorable rating among whites is pretty damn good. And you're overestimating how far minority turnout will fall. Blacks still turned out for Gore and Kerry after all. If Hillary wins 40% of the white vote, she wins the election.

Blacks did not turn out for Kerry, at least, nothing like they did for Obama. Bush got 11% of the black vote, McCain/Romney got 4 and 6% respectively. I expect the black vote to be more republican in 2016, simply because there will not be a black on the democratic ticket, and there are blacks, like it or not, who voted for Obama solely because of his race. I will be very surprised if the republican candidate in 2016 does not hit 8% of the black vote, and I can definitely see 10 or even 12%.

Following your logic, many women will turn out to vote Hillary because she will be the first woman President and they will more than offset any declining turnout among blacks.
Also, Clinton was much more popular among Hispanics during the 2008 primary and if she chooses a Hispanic running mate this will help her too.

There will indeed be women who vote for Hillary solely because she is a Woman. Whether it will be enough to offset blacks who just voted for Obama because he was black going back to voting republican is something we won't know until election night.

In any case, republicans making gains with Hispanics and Women are a different matter than them making gains with blacks. With blacks, republicans should get an automatic 2-3% boost over Romney's performance simply due to the lack of a black on the ticket, with Hispanics/Women there will be no such "automatic boost".

I can see Hillary matching/exceeding Obama's performance among Hispanics and Women, but I cannot see her managing such a thing with blacks, provided the republican nominee doesn't implode for some reason and isn't Santorum/Palin/Bachmann/Bolton/Cruz.

[bedstuy]

White women and Hispanics were around 45% of the electorate in 2012 vs. blacks at 13.4%.

If Hillary gains among white women and Hispanics, she can easily offset losing black votes.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

White women and Hispanics were around 45% of the electorate in 2012 vs. blacks at 13.4%.

If Hillary gains among white women and Hispanics, she can easily offset losing black votes.

It's a cute GOP talking point to say that they might pick up some black votes.  What?  1-2% of a populace that is 11-12% of the vote overall?  It's not going to matter if she drops from 95% to 93%. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

None of these polls matter.  I would pay more attention to what people think of our dear, dear President Obama who is being screwed out of a third term by that nasty Constitution. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would say that it isnt a statistical dead heat right now, but Clinton leading outside margin of error is good news and is closer to 270 than the GOP. 263-203, while CO and Ohio hang in balance.