The Democratic Party is facing a Catholic apocalypse

[Torie]

This article, with its hyperbolic title that its content really does not live up to,  contains nothing that we did not already know. Myself, more than the micro issues out there that come and go, I think it is more to do with the fact that Catholics (white ones) are now basically indistinguishable from other whites who remain affiliated with a religion (as the article notes, about one third of those born to Catholic parents, are no longer affiliated with the church (many with no church), and of course they are considerably more Democrat friendly, just like their non-religous WASP counterparts).

[Sbane]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

[Torie]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

[7,052,770]

I doubt the next Democratic nominee (or the next 10 Democratic nominees, for that matter) will have as much open friction with prominent Catholic bishops as Obama did, and even despite all that, Obama won the Catholic vote, and it was one of just a handful of denominations of Christianity that he won.

[Thunderbird is the word]

It doesn't really help that they've decided to make abortion such a central issue. I'm pro-choice but I also think that hobby lobby was a stupid fight to pick and they should have pushed for over the counter birth control instead.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It seems like the Catholic vote is more Democratic now than it was, say, 15 or 20 years ago. Maybe it's because Catholics are a little more urban than Southern-style evangelicals.

[King of Kensington]

It seems like the Catholic vote is more Democratic now than it was, say, 15 or 20 years ago. Maybe it's because Catholics are a little more urban than Southern-style evangelicals.

It's also a lot more Hispanic than it was 15 or 20 years ago.

"White ethnics" are increasingly "melted" as well.  Still white Catholics are more likely to live in more liberal regions of the country, and that has an effect.

It's been a long time since the Irish vote, the Italian vote and the Polish vote was measured.

[ag]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

[memphis]

Mods plz ban

[TJ in Oregon]

The trend toward middle class suburban growth among Catholics and the slow death of the oldschool ethnic Democratic Catholic machines has been going on for decades now. The older white Catholic Democrats--who were actually both Catholic and Democrats--are dying off day by day and their children are mostly one or the other. The reason why this showed so much between 2008 and 2012 was that the antifada strain of the Democratic Party was especially vocal in the War on Women/contraception/gay marriage debates. There is some cost to taking those positions, and losing a few points among white Catholics is one of them.

Similarly, the Democrats might be able to get my vote if they wanted it; but why would they bother? If I were them, I wouldn't try to get my vote. They can win without me. Analogously, they can win without winning the white Catholic vote so long as they win progressives and minorities. It may be the start of a realignment, but it's certainly not an apocalypse for the Democrats.

[Torie]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

Sigh. Ah the drums shall forever beat for the rich white man's condescension and exploitation of those perhaps less fortunate meme, won't they? It fits in so seamlessly with one's world view with which they find favor. Resistance is futile.

[VPH]

As an ethnic white Catholic Democrat, I can confidently (and pretty sadly) say that we are a dying breed. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

Sigh. Ah the drums shall forever beat for the rich white man's condescension and exploitation of those perhaps less fortunate meme, won't they? It fits in so seamlessly with one's world view with which they find favor. Resistance is futile.

I'm just ribbing you Torie.

I took a close look at Mexican-American precincts in Denver and my conclusion was that there wasn't a significant swing towards Cory Gardner. On average, he received ~1-2% more than Ken Buck. However, Udall bled a lot of votes to a third party candidate with a Hispanic last name. The Hispanic counties in southern Colorado are not representative of Latinos: they're Nuevo Mexicanos who are embedded in the rural culture of the mountain west. As a result, they're susceptible to backlash voting with regards to guns and the environment, issues which were salient in Colorado politics.

Elsewhere, the issue with Mexican-Americans was largely due to turnout. Cubans in Florida swung away from Rick Scott, especially in Miami.

I can't speak to the political trends in the Puerto Rican or Dominican community but there's a near negligible likelihood they'll ever vote for Republicans due to their ties and identification with their African heritage/identity and, to a lesser extent, the Black community in the US.

Torie, Mexican-Americans are actually moving to the left. Millennial Mexican-Americans are increasingly unchurched and still retain their parent's penchant for the welfare state and governmental intervention in the economy. In terms of class, there's no substantial evidence that suggests that wealthier Mexican-Americans are more likely to vote for Republicans than poorer Mexican-Americans. Middle class Mexican-Americans have a disproportionate presence in the public sector. If anything, they're more to the left than their working class and poor counterparts.

As for Cubans? Republicans face demographic armageddon with Cubans. Although Cuban-Americans are unusually conservative for an ethnic group that hails from the Hispanic world, they're not particularly conservative by the standards of America but they remain a core Republican constituency. Republican dominance in the Cuban community will continue to erode over the next few decades. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire community re-aligns itself with Democrats.

Republicans have a race issue with many Latinos. I doubt that predominately "indio" migrants from Mexico or darker Puerto Ricans or Dominicans will ever vote for the GOP so long as it maintains its current orientation.

edit: I apologize for the incoherent nature of this post but it's hard to discuss Latinos as a unified ethnicity. The issue of Latino voting trends necessitates digging into specific ethnic data. Otherwise, trends are easily obscured.

[ag]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

Sigh. Ah the drums shall forever beat for the rich white man's condescension and exploitation of those perhaps less fortunate meme, won't they? It fits in so seamlessly with one's world view with which they find favor. Resistance is futile.

I would have expected a lawyer to actually have read the link he is posting. Would you mind telling us, where is any evidence of that "uptick" in there?

[Mr. Illini]

As an ethnic white Catholic Democrat, I can confidently (and pretty sadly) say that we are a dying breed. 

I disagree with you. If we are going off of our personal experiences, which it sounds like we are, the contrary is true for me. I attend a Catholic parish in an upper middle class area and a very Catholic area that is a perfect descriptor of the "Catholic who now has money and votes Republican" political stereotype. I would say that the parish is split pretty evenly in fact, with a large faction of deeply-religious, "bleeding heart" types that vote Democrat because of their faith rather than in spite of it.

[DC Al Fine]

As an ethnic white Catholic Democrat, I can confidently (and pretty sadly) say that we are a dying breed. 

I disagree with you. If we are going off of our personal experiences, which it sounds like we are, the contrary is true for me. I attend a Catholic parish in an upper middle class area and a very Catholic area that is a perfect descriptor of the "Catholic who now has money and votes Republican" political stereotype. I would say that the parish is split pretty evenly in fact, with a large faction of deeply-religious, "bleeding heart" types that vote Democrat because of their faith rather than in spite of it.

While I don't deny what you are describing in your parish is real, this trend has been very well documented for a long time and is also occurring in Protestantism.

In short, the problem is that conservative Christians produce conservative Christians, while liberal Christians produce liberals who sleep in on Sunday.

[Torie]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

Sigh. Ah the drums shall forever beat for the rich white man's condescension and exploitation of those perhaps less fortunate meme, won't they? It fits in so seamlessly with one's world view with which they find favor. Resistance is futile.

I would have expected a lawyer to actually have read the link he is posting. Would you mind telling us, where is any evidence of that "uptick" in there?

The word "uptick" does not connote some evidence of a long term trend. I sort of used the word jocularly, suggesting that perhaps there is hope. What the exit poll showed basically was no movement, with the Pub percentage up 6% from 2012 in 2014, but that uptick occurred in 2010 as well (albeit 2010 was a bit stronger Pub year than 2014). So yes, it appears that the uptick was mostly a turnout issue, that has been discussed so much between presidential election and midterm election cycles. The Pubs did get in excess of 40% in Georgia and Texas however, suggesting to me, that Hispanics do tend to adapt somewhat to the overall political culture, as TDFB suggested occurred in rural Colorado in his most interesting post. Hope that helps.

In the exit poll, albeit with a high margin of error, the Pubs did however evenly split the Asian vote however, a big uptick and a big surprise. Go Asians!  

[hopper]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Um yeah "self deportation rhetoric" certainly didn't do him any favors. But still yeah he didn't connect all Romney did was run against Obama and Romney had no vision for the countries future.

[hopper]

It seems like the Catholic vote is more Democratic now than it was, say, 15 or 20 years ago. Maybe it's because Catholics are a little more urban than Southern-style evangelicals.

No the Catholic Vote has mirrored the Presidential Vote at least since the Clinton Years maybe before that( I didn't look that far back past 1992.) Bush W. won the Catholic Vote just barely in 2004 just like Obama did in 2012.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I wonder if Pope Francis is going to have any influence on Catholics trending more leftward again, I've noticed some liberal ethnic catholic types that have said they want to start going to mass again due to liking the new pope.

[hopper]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Pubs are on the uptick with Hispanics. Mittens just didn't connect. Stay tuned.

Would be interesting to see a shred of evidence to that

Torie's evidence: an anecdote given to him by his gardener.

Sigh. Ah the drums shall forever beat for the rich white man's condescension and exploitation of those perhaps less fortunate meme, won't they? It fits in so seamlessly with one's world view with which they find favor. Resistance is futile.

I'm just ribbing you Torie.

I took a close look at Mexican-American precincts in Denver and my conclusion was that there wasn't a significant swing towards Cory Gardner. On average, he received ~1-2% more than Ken Buck. However, Udall bled a lot of votes to a third party candidate with a Hispanic last name. The Hispanic counties in southern Colorado are not representative of Latinos: they're Nuevo Mexicanos who are embedded in the rural culture of the mountain west. As a result, they're susceptible to backlash voting with regards to guns and the environment, issues which were salient in Colorado politics.

Elsewhere, the issue with Mexican-Americans was largely due to turnout. Cubans in Florida swung away from Rick Scott, especially in Miami.

I can't speak to the political trends in the Puerto Rican or Dominican community but there's a near negligible likelihood they'll ever vote for Republicans due to their ties and identification with their African heritage/identity and, to a lesser extent, the Black community in the US.

Torie, Mexican-Americans are actually moving to the left. Millennial Mexican-Americans are increasingly unchurched and still retain their parent's penchant for the welfare state and governmental intervention in the economy. In terms of class, there's no substantial evidence that suggests that wealthier Mexican-Americans are more likely to vote for Republicans than poorer Mexican-Americans. Middle class Mexican-Americans have a disproportionate presence in the public sector. If anything, they're more to the left than their working class and poor counterparts.

As for Cubans? Republicans face demographic armageddon with Cubans. Although Cuban-Americans are unusually conservative for an ethnic group that hails from the Hispanic world, they're not particularly conservative by the standards of America but they remain a core Republican constituency. Republican dominance in the Cuban community will continue to erode over the next few decades. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire community re-aligns itself with Democrats.

Republicans have a race issue with many Latinos. I doubt that predominately "indio" migrants from Mexico or darker Puerto Ricans or Dominicans will ever vote for the GOP so long as it maintains its current orientation.

edit: I apologize for the incoherent nature of this post but it's hard to discuss Latinos as a unified ethnicity. The issue of Latino voting trends necessitates digging into specific ethnic data. Otherwise, trends are easily obscured.

There are White Puerto Ricans. True about Dominicans though.

I think Mexican Americans are center-left. I don't think they are Hard-Core Liberals though.

I think the Cuban Vote(mostly in Florida) Cuban's of Generation Y they don't have ties to the Castro Regime in Cuba.

Gardner did improve improve statewide from Buck 2010's performance with Latino's by 6% points from 17% to 23%. That was critical in Gardner's victory.

[hopper]

Democrats have a catholic apocalypse while the Republicans face a Hispanic apocalypse. Makes sense.

The Republican Hispanic Vote % its stayed stable since 2000 for the most part. It hasn't moved down significantly nationwide that drastically since 2000.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It depends on who we are considering Catholic here.  Do they have to be practicing or do they just have to identify as such?  I can say with much certainty that your average white Catholic is no white evangelical.  They're different breeds. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It depends on who we are considering Catholic here.  Do they have to be practicing or do they just have to identify as such?  I can say with much certainty that your average white Catholic is no white evangelical.  They're different breeds. 

If you read the article (which is basically referring only to non-Hispanic white Catholics) it points how just how Republican they are now and in 2012 were in fact more Republican than white Protestants. The main reason for this though, which the article kind of glosses over quickly but people here have pointed out, is that the liberals are leaving Catholicism. Which shows that these "identification only" "Catholics" are actually not all that common anymore. After as the article mentions one third of those raised Catholic no longer identify as such.