Which state is Hillary more likely to lose?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Some would say VA because it's an "Obama coalition" state, but I think she'll probably carry it. OH is likely to drift rightward in the future, and if minority turnout worsens I can see her losing it by 2-3%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Virginia's leftward trend predates Obama, and the antics of Republicans in congress hurt the GOP here more than in any other state. I'd go with Ohio.

[Clermont County GOPer]

Ohio I don't see Hillary carrying Hamilton county

[pbrower2a]

Ohio.

Virginia. More blacks in proportion to the population than any other Northern state (it is Northern now despite its Southern past), and huge numbers of government employees who are not going to let their good times come to an end for tax cuts.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary doesn't need either VA or OH, as long as she wins PA,IA, WI, NM, CO, NV, and NH for the 272 firewall.

Which she is fully capable of.

[King]

Ohio. What is happening in Virginia is more than Obama coalition. There is flight in the DC burbs from Maryland into Virginia and it's mostly Democrats.

It elected Terry McAuliffe in a midterm. Terry McAuliffe.

[TDAS04]

Close call, but I'd say Ohio.

[Sumner 1868]

If she wins, she'll probably carry both.

[NerdyBohemian]

Against Walker I don't see Hillary losing either, but I'm gonna go with Ohio. Virginia was trending dem before Obama, elected Mcauliffe and Warner by the partisan nature of NoVa, even during bad elections for Dems  and federal employees aren't going to reward Republicans for the silly goosery they like pulling every few months.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Ohio, based on the arguments presented above.

[Podgy the Bear]

She's more likely to lose Ohio (especially if Kasich is on the ticket), but it would have to be a national loss of 1 point of more.

[Mister Mets]

Ohio.

It's slightly more conservative than the norm.

And Hillary Clinton seems like a good candidate for Virginia swing voters.

Odds are both states will go to the same individual.

[Likely Voter]

Ohio. But if she wins either she is almost certainly going to win the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why would Hilary lose Ohio before Va? Ohio is part of 272 firewall, with the help of winning CO or OH will get her over 270.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am looking senate races as well, and Strickland. will do very well in Ohio.

[Xing]

Ohio, of course. The Democratic trend in Virginia (as well as Colorado) predates Obama's candidacy. I highly doubt Ohio will be more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2016, and if it is, it'll probably be by less than 1%.

[IceSpear]

Ohio.

Virginia. More blacks in proportion to the population than any other Northern state (it is Northern now despite its Southern past), and huge numbers of government employees who are not going to let their good times come to an end for tax cuts.

LOL no Virginia is still Southern. The whites there are more conservative than the Union. Only Dem due to minorities.

Aren't Virginia whites actually more Republican than West Virginia whites?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Ohio.

Virginia. More blacks in proportion to the population than any other Northern state (it is Northern now despite its Southern past), and huge numbers of government employees who are not going to let their good times come to an end for tax cuts.

LOL no Virginia is still Southern. The whites there are more conservative than the Union. Only Dem due to minorities.

Aren't Virginia whites actually more Republican than West Virginia whites?

Even if that was true last election, I doubt it will be true in the next one, and certainly not in the one after that. But back to the topic at hand, NOVA is no longer Southern in any meaningful way, but the rest of the state very much still is.

[Mr. Illini]

Ohio, because 1) the DC suburb impact is not isolated to Obama, see: 2013 and 2) Hillary can pick up some southern Democrat votes downstate that Obama could not.