US-Israeli Relations After the Election
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  US-Israeli Relations After the Election
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Author Topic: US-Israeli Relations After the Election  (Read 13520 times)
moderatevoter
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« on: March 19, 2015, 04:48:51 PM »

So many of you have probably already read these, but I have two interesting articles which I thought I'd post.

Firstly, this article basically says that with Netanyahu swearing off the two state solution (which I think he recently walked back on, but whatever), expect the Republicans to follow suit.

This article, from Haaretz, mentions that the White House sees relations as having fundamentally changed. If you get pay-walled, copy the link and paste in the Google search bar. You should be able to open it then.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2015, 05:30:49 PM »

I expect things to get very ugly from here between Obama and Netanyahu.

However, everyone knows that Obama is on the way out and the next President will almost definitely be friendlier. So I imagine we're going to see a bipartisan effort to shut down Obama if he takes things too far. There's certain bells that can't be unrung and would force Israel to seek out new protection elsewhere, possibly from Russia. The Democrats will not allow that to happen.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2015, 05:41:55 PM »

I expect things to get very ugly from here between Obama and Netanyahu.

However, everyone knows that Obama is on the way out and the next President will almost definitely be friendlier. So I imagine we're going to see a bipartisan effort to shut down Obama if he takes things too far. There's certain bells that can't be unrung and would force Israel to seek out new protection elsewhere, possibly from Russia. The Democrats will not allow that to happen.

From a Russia that supported Iran for the past decade? While I understand the logic I do think realistically personal animosity wouldn't let the Israeli right-wing side with them, at least, not for another term or so.
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2015, 05:42:02 PM »

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2015, 05:44:25 PM »

I expect things to get very ugly from here between Obama and Netanyahu.

However, everyone knows that Obama is on the way out and the next President will almost definitely be friendlier. So I imagine we're going to see a bipartisan effort to shut down Obama if he takes things too far. There's certain bells that can't be unrung and would force Israel to seek out new protection elsewhere, possibly from Russia. The Democrats will not allow that to happen.

Let Israel get all the support from Russia it wants. I can see how that would hurt Israel. But why would that hurt American interests at all?
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ag
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2015, 06:33:35 PM »

I would put the problem broader. What is the US interest in the Middle East? Well, I can see the importance of the uniterrupted oil supply. I can also see certain responsibility for Iraq: the current disaster there is a consequence of the US actions, so some reparation is required, but how it is done could be argued about. There is some interest in nuclear non-proliferation - but, frankly, that is a lost cause. Finally - perhaps most importantly - I can see US treaty obligations to Turkey. Beyond that there is a general spirit of aiding democracy throughout the world - but in that respect Middle East is no more pertinent than Africa or the Far East.

It could be argued that in none of this Israel figures much. Association with Israel has cost US dearly in its other goals and its international reputation. It is obvious that there is not much ideological or political affinity left, and Israeli ability of helping the US reaching its goals in the region or elsewhere is limited. All that is left is the domestic US politics. That, of course, would prevent any obvious break. But there is simply no reason to go beyond polite smiles and necessary diplomatic pleasantries. US should not take a lead on punishing Israel, or anything of that nature either. It should just stay out of the entire sorry business.
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2015, 06:45:57 PM »

Obama's policy on Israel is one of the few things I like about Obama.
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jfern
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2015, 06:58:52 PM »

Obama is still ridiculously pro-Israel, but I suppose he's the best we're going to get any time soon. Hillary will definitely be worse.
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politicus
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2015, 07:02:43 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2015, 07:23:34 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...

Most EU countries are increasingly pro-Palestinian. If the US backs down Israel is on its own.

...

Generally China, Japan and Western Europe have far greater interests in Middle Eastern oil than the US and the EU has an obvious interest in stability in its neighbouring areas.

All of them would be forced to create a more active Middle Eastern policy if the US withdrew. The Chinese response would be particularly interesting.
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ag
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2015, 07:25:49 PM »

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...

Most EU countries are increasingly pro-Palestinian. If the US backs down Israel is on its own.

...

Generally China, Japan and Western Europe have far greater interests in Middle Eastern oil than the US and the EU has an obvious interest in stability in its neighbouring areas.

All of them would be forced to create a more active Middle Eastern policy if the US withdrew. The Chinese response would be particularly interesting.

But Israel has nothing to do with Mideast oil - even for China.

The main international interest in Israel is, frankly, religious. If it were not for Jerusalem, nobody would care. Honestly, I think nobody should care.
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politicus
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2015, 09:05:09 PM »

Frankly, I do not see at this point any compelling American interest in the region. If I were Obama I would simply ignore Israel. Of course, ignoring it would also imply abstaining on UNSC resolutions, etc. Let the Europeans take the lead, if they wish. US should just make it clear it is not interested.

BTW, this is not only about Israel, but also about, say, Egypt. US ability of making an impact there is negligible at this point. And, like Israel, it has no oil. So,...

Most EU countries are increasingly pro-Palestinian. If the US backs down Israel is on its own.

...

Generally China, Japan and Western Europe have far greater interests in Middle Eastern oil than the US and the EU has an obvious interest in stability in its neighbouring areas.

All of them would be forced to create a more active Middle Eastern policy if the US withdrew. The Chinese response would be particularly interesting.

But Israel has nothing to do with Mideast oil - even for China.

The main international interest in Israel is, frankly, religious. If it were not for Jerusalem, nobody would care. Honestly, I think nobody should care.

Of ocurse, they are separate issues, which I why  I made the dotted line.

You made three posts about US Middle Eastern policy, this was in response to the third.
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danny
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2015, 09:18:20 PM »


But Israel has nothing to do with Mideast oil - even for China.

The main international interest in Israel is, frankly, religious. If it were not for Jerusalem, nobody would care. Honestly, I think nobody should care.

I agree with you on an Israel related subject, what a shocking turn of events.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2015, 09:46:09 PM »

Netanyahu has just sent the message that Israel does not want peace and does not want to negotiate.

He's just given the Palestinians an opening to throw up their hands once and for all and act unilaterally. The US response to Palestine's push for greater international recognition is that their statehood should come through negotiations with Israel. But Israel will not negotiate.

I'd expect more EU countries will go the way of Sweden and establish full diplomatic relations with the State of Palestine. You may see a push for economic sanctions on Israel, similar to the ones imposed on South Africa in the 1980s. Israel will continue down the path of right wing identity politics and insist that they are only defending themselves against "terrorists" - not unlike South Africa's fever paranoia about how the blacks were going to turn the place into a Soviet satellite.

Things will get worse for Israel's Arab population. As the Orthodox community and the settler community grow in political power, Netanyahu and whoever succeeds him will likely keep doubling down on current policies.

Israel's future as a fortified, isolated pariah state was already foreshadowed with Netanyahu's rhetoric. His nonsensical ramblings about "foreign influence" seeking to undermine him during the election sounded more like something a Third World despot would say before a ceremonial sham election than anything you'd hear from the leader of a country that likes to think it's a Western democracy.

Obama should instruct Samantha Power to abstain from any UN Security Council votes relating to Israel for the rest of his term. If the Israeli people want to reelect a man who comes to America, embarrasses our president and rhetorically spits in our face, they no longer deserve any protection from the heaping of scorn and retribution that the international community has been wanting to unleash on them.

Elections have consequences. Israel voted for it and now they deserve to get it good and hard.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2015, 10:40:32 PM »

I expect things to get very ugly from here between Obama and Netanyahu.

However, everyone knows that Obama is on the way out and the next President will almost definitely be friendlier. So I imagine we're going to see a bipartisan effort to shut down Obama if he takes things too far. There's certain bells that can't be unrung and would force Israel to seek out new protection elsewhere, possibly from Russia. The Democrats will not allow that to happen.

Let Israel get all the support from Russia it wants. I can see how that would hurt Israel. But why would that hurt American interests at all?

America doesn't want other countries to get ahold of all the innovations Israel's tech sector designs for them.

And they certainly don't want them going to Russia.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2015, 10:43:35 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2015, 10:47:02 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2012/0927/What-Netanyahu-s-meddling-in-US-election-means-for-Obama-Romney-and-diplomacy
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2015, 10:51:50 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

So you don't think the United States should evaluate its relationship with a given country based on  how that country's government behaves toward the United States?

Elections have consequences. Your apologism for Netanyahu is yet more proof that you need to get rid of your New Jersey avatar because you clearly care more about Israel than you do about the United States.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2015, 10:53:05 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

It gets harder and harder for Israel to claim the moral high ground when their leader openly states he does not want peace, and then is re-elected anyway.
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2015, 10:55:14 PM »


But Israel has nothing to do with Mideast oil - even for China.

The main international interest in Israel is, frankly, religious. If it were not for Jerusalem, nobody would care. Honestly, I think nobody should care.

I agree with you on an Israel related subject, what a shocking turn of events.

You agree in letter, but not in spirit Smiley We, probably, have completely the opposite implications in mind Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2015, 10:57:52 PM »

I expect things to get very ugly from here between Obama and Netanyahu.

However, everyone knows that Obama is on the way out and the next President will almost definitely be friendlier. So I imagine we're going to see a bipartisan effort to shut down Obama if he takes things too far. There's certain bells that can't be unrung and would force Israel to seek out new protection elsewhere, possibly from Russia. The Democrats will not allow that to happen.

Let Israel get all the support from Russia it wants. I can see how that would hurt Israel. But why would that hurt American interests at all?

America doesn't want other countries to get ahold of all the innovations Israel's tech sector designs for them.

And they certainly don't want them going to Russia.

Do not exaggerate those tech innovations - and do not exaggerate what Russia can do with them. And, obviously, if Israel does anything detrimental to US national security, it should be treated appropriately: even if there is no carrot, the stick would still be there.
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ag
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2015, 10:59:35 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

It gets harder and harder for Israel to claim the moral high ground when their leader openly states he does not want peace, and then is re-elected anyway.

Well, he never said he did not want peace. He would take an unconditional capitulation.

But, yeah, unfortunately, what he said in the campaign was heard. I doubt it would make much of a difference, but, perhaps, it would.
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jfern
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2015, 11:00:52 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2015, 11:03:29 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

The top countries for foreign aid. Jordan and Egypt are given the money simply for being relatively friendly to Israel. To stop funding the Israeli war machine is not punishing Israel.  What other country do we give $3.1 billion a year to, plus another $2.2 billion to 2 of its neighbors to stay friendly to them? Yeah, none. It's time to end the special treatment to Israel. They can be like Canada, the UK, France, Germany,  Japan, Australia, South Korea, Italy, and Spain. Countries we don't give a dime to.

Israel $3.1B
Afghanistan $1.59B
Egypt $1.51B
Pakistan $880M
Nigeria $720M
Jordan $670M
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ag
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2015, 11:02:06 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

So you don't think the United States should evaluate its relationship with a given country based on  how that country's government behaves toward the United States?

Elections have consequences. Your apologism for Netanyahu is yet more proof that you need to get rid of your New Jersey avatar because you clearly care more about Israel than you do about the United States.

Let me sum it up in a more traditional way. Israel has become bad for the Jews.
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ag
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2015, 11:03:04 PM »

Also, finding it really funny to see liberals and progressives sitting around discussing what the appropriate punishment is for a sovereign state refusing to oust its leader on the order of the US President.

A foreign government openly trying to push out a country's leader causes a backlash of nationalism. Water is wet.

The top countries for foreign aid. Jordan and Egypt are given the money simply for being relatively friendly to Israel. To stop funding the Israeli war machine is not punishing Israel.

Israel $3.1B
Afghanistan $1.59B
Egypt $1.51B
Pakistan $880M
Nigeria $720M
Jordan $670M


I would keep the aid to Jordan: they will need it. Egypt should have been cut off completely after the coup, anyway.
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ag
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2015, 11:03:49 PM »

Netanyahu has just sent the message that Israel does not want peace and does not want to negotiate.

He's just given the Palestinians an opening to throw up their hands once and for all and act unilaterally. The US response to Palestine's push for greater international recognition is that their statehood should come through negotiations with Israel. But Israel will not negotiate.

I'd expect more EU countries will go the way of Sweden and establish full diplomatic relations with the State of Palestine. You may see a push for economic sanctions on Israel, similar to the ones imposed on South Africa in the 1980s. Israel will continue down the path of right wing identity politics and insist that they are only defending themselves against "terrorists" - not unlike South Africa's fever paranoia about how the blacks were going to turn the place into a Soviet satellite.

Things will get worse for Israel's Arab population. As the Orthodox community and the settler community grow in political power, Netanyahu and whoever succeeds him will likely keep doubling down on current policies.

Israel's future as a fortified, isolated pariah state was already foreshadowed with Netanyahu's rhetoric. His nonsensical ramblings about "foreign influence" seeking to undermine him during the election sounded more like something a Third World despot would say before a ceremonial sham election than anything you'd hear from the leader of a country that likes to think it's a Western democracy.

Obama should instruct Samantha Power to abstain from any UN Security Council votes relating to Israel for the rest of his term. If the Israeli people want to reelect a man who comes to America, embarrasses our president and rhetorically spits in our face, they no longer deserve any protection from the heaping of scorn and retribution that the international community has been wanting to unleash on them.

Elections have consequences. Israel voted for it and now they deserve to get it good and hard.

I generally agree with you. Although, I am afraid, the last sentence is too optimistic.
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