Could Sanders be a Spoiler Anywhere?

[Free Bird]

He is the most popular politician in Vermont bar none, so he may tighten it.

[Vega]

No. And the election probably won't come down to 3 electoral votes.

[Stranger in a strange land]

NH, ME, NV, FL, OH, WI, MN, and IA are all possibilities. He could force the Democratic nominee to spend money in OR and WA but wouldn't quite be able to put them in striking distance for Jeb or Walker. Of course, the Dems will fight tooth and nail to keep him off the ballot in all these places.

[King]

New Hampshire, Maine, and Oregon are the only states with enough liberals and a close enough margin that they could flip from Dem to GOP with Sanders as a third party.

Even with his home state advantage, there's too many Democrats in Vermont to where even if he split the Dem vote with Hillary, she might still win the state.

[IceSpear]

Sanders wouldn't be this titan that gets double digit support like many people here think (Hillary is too popular among Dems for that), but in a very close election, even 2-3% could make a difference, which is why he'll likely be running as a Democrat. Although the Atlas intelligentsia that enjoys losing elections would have no problem with installing President Walker, I can assure you the vast majority of the left would despise him for it. I doubt he wants to be Nader 2.0.

[Miles]

He already said he's not running as a third party if he runs.

It would never happen, but it would be hilarious is Vermont went Republican just because of Sanders.

Well, deep down, its a solid Republican state.

[Mr. Morden]

He already said he's not running as a third party if he runs.

No he hasn't.  However, he has said that if he were to run as an Independent, that he wouldn't serve as a "spoiler", which I guess means that he would avoid swing states, or something like that.

[Suburbia]

OR and WA

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NH, ME, OR, PA. He'll get mid-single digits in the rest of the northeast and in WA, but I highly doubt it will be enough to make anything else go republican. He'll get high single to low double digits in CA, and perhaps as much as 20% of the vote in Vermont, but it simply won't be enough to make those states go republican.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

If he ran as a third-party candidate, could Vermont be Utah '92  with the parties reversed meaning the Republican actually comes in third?

[Sumner 1868]

I suspect "Nader the spoiler" is still too strong for a sizable left-wing third-party challenge.

[Likely Voter]

I don't see him doing any better than Johnson in 2012, or around 1%. Then again It's quite possible for a battleground state to be decided by less than 1%, so he could be a factor in one or two.

That being said, I suspect Bernie will run as a Dem so he can get in the Dem debates (and so he doesn't piss off the party/Harry Reid and lose his Senate ranking)

[solarstorm]

If he ran as a third-party candidate, could Vermont be Utah '92  with the parties reversed meaning the Republican actually comes in third?

You mean like Maine? Yes, definitely.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I suspect "Nader the spoiler" is still too strong for a sizable left-wing third-party challenge.

Unfortunately yes.