Quebec redistricting, 2015

[Poirot]

To reactivate this thread. Public hearings were held in 2015. The members of the National assembly only had the hearings to give their input in September 2016. So, the revised report could be ready in February or March 2017. I read that in the newspaper, the story was about Montreal mayor had sent a letter in October to the commission in support of a name change, to replace Crémazie with Maurice Richard.

The suggestions for name change by members of National Assembly were:

Crémazie to Maurice Richard
L'assomption to Jacques Parizeau
Charlevoix - Côte de Beaupré to  Charlevoix - Côte de Beaupré - Ile d'Orléans
Richmond to Richmond - Rock Forest
Vimont to Vimont - Auteuil
Matane -Matapédia to Matane - Matapédia - Mitis
Rivière-dy-Loup - Témiscouata to Rivière-dy-Loup - Témiscouata - Les Basques

There is usually a limit to two names in a riding name so adding a third might be too much.

As for the riding limits, the Mauricie fought to keep its 5 ridings. The Liberal party fought for the status quo, question adding two ridings in Laurentides-Lanaudière, too soon, some ridings will have low population, the number of exceptions to the below 25% of the mean accepted by the commission, why could there not be an exception added to Mauricie, the map is based on number of electors but the non-electors should be taking into account, legal opinion on the legality of the new map, respecting natural communities sometimes ethnic, be prident, prefer stability to have changes again next time, the last map was made not that long ago, the quotientfor population per riding should be calculated excluding the exception ridings (those with below 25% of the mean).   
 

[Poirot]

The second report is out and the big difference is the commission backed off on merging Outremont and Mont-Royal. That is what happens sometimes, people oppose so the commission leave them alone and instead look elsewhere and those affected don't have the chance to speak at public hearings.

So in Montreal it's Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques that will disappear. Westmount is taken from what was Westmount-Saint-Louis to go to NDG to become Westmount-Notre-Dame de-Grâce. The rest of Westmount-St-Louis becomes Ville-Marie and includes most of what was Saintr-Marie-Saint-Jacques.

The part north of Sherbrooke Street in the former Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques goes to join Mercier and what is east of De Lorimier (Jacques Cartier bridge) is put in Hochelaga -Maisonneuve.

I will try a direct link to the riding map:
http://lacarte.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/map.php?bsq=389

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QS would be the most affected here no? SMSJ they only barely won, but now Hochelaga-Maisonneuve which they were only 1000 votes or so away from winning becomes more winnable, gaining a huge chunk of polls that QS won.
Ville Marie is now dominated by the Liberals thanks to the western portion now, likely a Liberal win unless QS can find a strong candidate that can win over Progressive Liberals (I don't think that's Masse)

It could nullify the growth of Québec Solidaire. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve was potentially a fourth elected member (their next target I presume) but now if they win it it will be three members, the same if there are no other gain (or loss). And it will probably be a strong battle.

Maybe someone good with numbers can see what Liberal margin would be in Ville-Marie. The west part is so strong Liberal and non-francophones stick with the Liberals, I don't know if another party would have a chance.

CAQ and PQ support QS on the new map. The process in unacceptable. There should be time for input like ridings affected by changes in the proposal had the chance to. I think tthere is a 5 hour debate in the National Assembly and then the final map will be published.   

[Poirot]

The final report is imminent. There were critics about the Montreal and Mauricie regional map proposed in the second (February 2017) report.

In Mauricie MRC Mékinac is split and would like to stay together. Also the Trois-Rivières riding now contains a part on the east side of the river and to drive to it you need to go through another riding (and probably not as urban).

In Montreal, will Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques survive? Did the commission had a plan C? In just two weeks there was a petition and mobilization, probably much more public reaction than the Outremont / Mont-Royal proposal. The director of elections said he could hold public hearings on the second report (Sainte-Marie/Saint-Jacques being eliminated) if the law is changed because public hearings need to happen in the 10 months following the first report. The government response was we should let the normal process continue its course (= had to publish a final report in 10 days).

Maybe plan C is eliminating Hochelaga-Maisonneuve instead. Target the poor to the east. I would like to dismantle Laurier-Dorion but it would require many changes around.

Some proposals were abandoned in the second report. Using the description in the first post, they are:

Estrie and Centre-du-Québec: Valcourt city and three other municipalities (Valcourt township, Racine and Maricourt) are moved from Richmont to Orford.

This proposal was cancelled so no change in this region.

Montréal: The Crémazie/Bourassa-Sauvé border is adjusted to follow the Montréal-Nord borough border.

This was cancelled. No change to the two ridings to follow the borough border.

Montérégie: Only two changes. Hudson and the non-contiguous part of Vaudreuil-Dorion are transferred from Vaudreuil to Soulanges. Also, the city of Brossard is now separared, 7000 electors are moved from La Pinière to Laporte, to make La Pinière smaller.

The part of Vaudreuil-Dorion that was proposed to go to Soulanges will stay in Vaudreuil. So the only changes in the region are Hudson going in Soulanges and part of brossard to Laporte as first proposed. 

Outaouais: Chelsea municipality is moved from Gatineau riding (which isn’t about the city, but is a rural riding centered on Gatineau River valley) to Hull riding. Also, Chapleau (which is the riding centered on Gatineau) has its limit moved east to lower the population of Papineau, so 2300 electors are moved. That change is within Gatineau city.

This proposal was cancelled so no change in this region.

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Final decision is out. In Montreal the commission goes back to its initial proposal, the merge of Mont-Royal and Outremont.

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Crémazie changes name (but not boundaries) to Maurice-Richard. First time for a sporstman's name to be used for a riding.

For the central area of Montreal, the final decision goes back to the boundaries in the first proposal. And the new map for the Laurentides and Lanaudière with two new ridings never changed.

Montréal: One deleted riding, Outremont. The Plateau part of Outremont goes to Mercier, Outremont and the Université de Montréal area goes into a new “Mont-Royal--Outremont” and most of Côte-des-Neiges goes in D’Arcy-McGee, which also takes a part of Côte-des-Neiges which was in Mont-Royal. D’Arcy-McGee also loses its part of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce to Notre-Dame-de-Grâce riding. Westmount--Saint-Louis takes a part of Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne.

Laurentides-Lanaudière: Two added ridings, both in St-Jérôme area. A new riding called “Les Plaines” is made from Saint-Janvier part of Mirabel city (Mirabel riding), Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines (Blainville riding) and La Plaine part of Terrebonne city (Masson). This allows to put back all of Blainville city in Blainville riding (a small part is currently in Groulx). Finally for that area, Masson is too small after that, so it takes the Lachenaie part of Terrebonne city from L’Assomption riding.

A new riding called Prévost (like the 1973-2012 one) with six municipalities. 4 from Bertrand (Prévost, St-Sauveur, Piedmont and Ste-Anne-des-Lacs) and 2 from Rousseau (St-Hippolyte and Ste-Sophie). That causes domino effect, obviously. Bertrand fixes that by taking two municipalities from Rousseau (Rawdon and Chertsey) and Rousseau takes three municipalities from Joliette (St-Jacques, St-Liguori and Ste-Marie-Salomé). Joliette being overpopulated right now, it’s the end of the dominoes.

There are the adjustments because of numbers. Small part of Chauveau goes to Charlesbourg, part of La Pinière to Laporte, part of Chomedey to Fabre and Hudson goes from Vaudreuil to Soulanges.

Mauricie loses a riding and now has 4. Saint-Maurice is mostly merged with Laviolette (Laviolette - Saint-Maurice). A big part of MRC de Mékinac (Saint-Tite, Saint-Séverin, Lac-aux-Sables, Notre-Dame-de-Montauban, Sainte-Thècle, Saint-Adelphe and Hérouxville) that was in Laviolette is now in Champlain. Champlain has the biggest population in the region, 20% above the provincial mean.

Maskinongé has the lowest population (11% below mean) because it lost the territory of Trois-Rivières east of highway 55 and only gained Saint-Boniface and Saint-Mathieu-du-Parc from the former Saint-Maurice. Trois-Rivières gains the part east of highway 55 that was in Maskinongé.

[Poirot]

A coalition including local mayors and borough mayors with former Liberal MP Marlene Jennings is contesting in court the new map, fighting the merger of Outremont and Mont-Royal ridings. Julius Grey is their lawyer.

http://montrealgazette.com/opinion/columnists/allison-hanes-citizens-take-up-new-gauntlet-changes-to-electoral-map

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One of their complaint is Montreal island loses one riding while there are regional ridings with fewer voters. There are six ridings maintained that are below 25% of the theoretical riding population average.

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I find it false to say Montreal is at a disadvantage. I added the numbers of voters of all ridings on the island in the list given by the electoral commission proposal. The number in November 2014 is 1.306 million. The electoral quotient was 48 387 so it gives 27 ridings. Moving from 28 to 27 ridings is just representation and not being victim of keeping some smaller population ridings in more isolated regions.

[Poirot]

I don't see a map with all final changes. The closest thing is the map from the second report but the last minute changes that came after were for Montreal and Mauricie region (the four ridings).

Except for Montreal and Mauricie, the rest of second report map is correct.
http://lacarte.electionsquebec.qc.ca/fr/second_rapport.php

For Montreal the final decision on Outremont/Mont-Royal and other central ridings was to come back to the preliminary report (first proposal). The Montreal island map of the preliminary report was here but it's not the final map because of a proposed change to Crémazie (now Maurice-Richard) and Bourassa-Sauvé that was abandoned.

http://lacarte.electionsquebec.qc.ca/docs/cartes_regionales/Montreal.pdf

So this is good except the blue colour of Crémazie (new name is Maurice-Richard) should extend in a small band along the river. The thick red line of the old boundary stays as the boundary with Bouraasa Sauvé.

Warning to readers, the links are not the final map. I'm trying to navigate between the different proposal maps.