Last time every major city went Republican
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  Last time every major city went Republican
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Author Topic: Last time every major city went Republican  (Read 3194 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
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« on: March 22, 2015, 01:54:16 AM »
« edited: March 22, 2015, 03:02:40 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

Inspired by the Chicago thread.

Major city=city with at least 1,000,000 people in it's metropolitan area.

This is not referring to the counties (although some are both), not the metro areas, just the cities themselves (although I did highlight the counties each city is in).  Tongue



Any input?  Some of the ones that don't have question marks next to the data are educated guesses, btw.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2015, 01:57:11 AM »

Impressive if Smith won Detroit while losing Michigan by a 40+ point margin.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2015, 01:57:56 AM »

Impressive if Smith won Detroit while losing Michigan by a 40+ point margin.

Whoops, meant to put that as 1928!  LOL
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2015, 04:04:24 AM »

Forgot, Grand Rapids was probably 1988.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2015, 11:09:54 AM »

Thank you. Smiley However, did Jacksonville really go for Romney in 2012? Hard for me to believe since he carried Duval County by only 4 points...
The Jacksonville "city" boundaries include the whole county, I believe.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2015, 11:59:41 AM »

Hartford, CT last went Republican in 1924.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2015, 12:49:58 PM »

Forgot, Grand Rapids was probably 1988.

If Dukakis won Cincinnati in 1988, he probably won Grand Rapids too.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2015, 02:10:31 PM »


Yes, wouldn't it be 1972?  Nixon simply crushed McGovern in the state by a 3-1 margin.  Not only did he lose all of the 1968 Wallace vote--he lost a substantial amount of Humphrey support as well.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2015, 02:40:57 PM »


Yes, wouldn't it be 1972?  Nixon simply crushed McGovern in the state by a 3-1 margin.  Not only did he lose all of the 1968 Wallace vote--he lost a substantial amount of Humphrey support as well.

The 1976 Almanac of American politics said McGovern won Atlanta.  Wink
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2015, 02:42:50 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2015, 02:53:06 PM by tara gilesbie »


Yes, wouldn't it be 1972?  Nixon simply crushed McGovern in the state by a 3-1 margin.  Not only did he lose all of the 1968 Wallace vote--he lost a substantial amount of Humphrey support as well.

Probably black turnout. Recall this was about the time the Voting Rights Act was being fully enforced.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2015, 03:01:48 PM »

Hartford, CT last went Republican in 1924.

Thanks! 
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2015, 03:04:44 PM »

Phoenix, Arizona, Fort Worth, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma all went for Romney.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2015, 03:08:36 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2015, 06:33:38 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

Phoenix, Arizona, Fort Worth, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma all went for Romney.

I didn't include Ft. Worth because Dalas is the main anchor within the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, but ftr I heard Obama won it by about six points in 2012 (he won it by 9-11% in 2008).

Do you have a source for Phoenix?  
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Beet
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« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2015, 06:03:53 PM »

Phoenix, Arizona, Fort Worth, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma all went for Romney.

I didn't include Ft. Worth because Dalas is the main anchor within the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, but ftr I heard Obama won it by about six points (he won it by 9-11% in 2008).

Do you have a source for Phoenix? 

There's an Atlantic article about it. Romney also won Salt Lake City.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2015, 06:08:36 PM »


He lost the city.
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2015, 06:11:19 PM »


Not according to Princeton University professor Robert Vanderbai.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2015, 06:13:29 PM »


Not according to Princeton University professor Robert Vanderbai.

I know we determined here a long time ago that Obama won Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Fort Worth in 2012.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2015, 06:30:38 PM »

Phoenix, Arizona, Fort Worth, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma all went for Romney.

I didn't include Ft. Worth because Dalas is the main anchor within the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, but ftr I heard Obama won it by about six points (he won it by 9-11% in 2008).

Do you have a source for Phoenix? 

There's an Atlantic article about it. Romney also won Salt Lake City.

Obama won Salt Lake city by nearly 40 percentage points in 2008.  Since the county itself only swung 20 points towards Romney in 2012, there's basically no way Mitt Romney could have won SLC.  Even John Kerry won it by 18 points in 2004 (forgot the source). 

BTW, here's an image of the 2012 Presidential Election b/state house district.  It pretty clearly shows that Obama dominated it the SLC parts of the county: https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps/photos/a.356874237721797.83371.356578374418050/763752120367338/?type=1&theater
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2015, 10:04:31 PM »


Yes, wouldn't it be 1972?  Nixon simply crushed McGovern in the state by a 3-1 margin.  Not only did he lose all of the 1968 Wallace vote--he lost a substantial amount of Humphrey support as well.

The 1976 Almanac of American politics said McGovern won Atlanta.  Wink
Do you have any indication of the margin Grant won it by?

I've got this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1872#/media/File:PresidentialCounty1872Colorbrewer.gif

It looks like Grant got at least 50% in Atlanta. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2015, 10:06:26 PM »


Yes, wouldn't it be 1972?  Nixon simply crushed McGovern in the state by a 3-1 margin.  Not only did he lose all of the 1968 Wallace vote--he lost a substantial amount of Humphrey support as well.

The 1976 Almanac of American politics said McGovern won Atlanta.  Wink
Do you have any indication of the margin Grant won it by?

I've got this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1872#/media/File:PresidentialCounty1872Colorbrewer.gif

It looks like Grant got at least 50% in Atlanta. 

Or: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7f/1872nationwidecountymapshadedbyvoteshare.svg
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« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2015, 10:53:58 AM »

Why not even a guess at Raleigh? 1988 seems most likely, if not then then no doubt 1984.
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Sol
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« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2015, 05:55:51 AM »

He might be confused by Wake County, but Raleigh is not all of the county and large portions live in Cary, Apex, etc--though I don't know how many lived there then.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2015, 10:40:02 AM »

Phoenix, Arizona, Fort Worth, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma all went for Romney.

I didn't include Ft. Worth because Dalas is the main anchor within the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, but ftr I heard Obama won it by about six points (he won it by 9-11% in 2008).

Do you have a source for Phoenix? 

There's an Atlantic article about it. Romney also won Salt Lake City.

Obama won Salt Lake city by nearly 40 percentage points in 2008.  Since the county itself only swung 20 points towards Romney in 2012, there's basically no way Mitt Romney could have won SLC.  Even John Kerry won it by 18 points in 2004 (forgot the source). 

BTW, here's an image of the 2012 Presidential Election b/state house district.  It pretty clearly shows that Obama dominated it the SLC parts of the county: https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps/photos/a.356874237721797.83371.356578374418050/763752120367338/?type=1&theater

Here's the source that Beet is referring to. It's hard to tell, but from what I can tell, it seems to be referring to the greater urban area (which definitely voted for Romney), rather than the city proper (which makes up less than 20 percent of the UA's population). From DRA, Salt Lake City proper voted 68-28 for Obama in 2008, and even John Kerry won the city 59-41 in 2004 ( Here's the source for that), despite doing about a point worse than Obama in 2012. Also, the city proper does not have a "dominant Mormon population" like the article claims. In fact, less than half of the city's population is Mormon today (they've increasingly moved out to the suburbs).

Based on past margins of victory in Salt Lake County, and how much of the county's popualtion lived in SLC, I'd agree that the city proper last voted republican in 1984.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2015, 06:24:39 PM »

They aren't cities, but in 1992 Hinds County, MS was probably the only Black majority county to vote for Bush. Ditto for Jefferson County, AL in 2004. Prince George County last voted Republican in 1972; in 2012 Obama got 92%.
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