When was the last election SoCal voted to the right of Texas
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  When was the last election SoCal voted to the right of Texas
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Author Topic: When was the last election SoCal voted to the right of Texas  (Read 1174 times)
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Computer89
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« on: November 17, 2020, 02:25:46 PM »

At the state level it was probably the mid 90s but when was it at the presidential level
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2020, 03:16:26 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.
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Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2020, 03:44:03 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did , thats pretty surprising. The reason is I have heard is that people said many times if SoCal was its own state it would have been the most republican major state in the country in the 1980s .

I wonder though what those numbers would be without the city of LA itself so then maybe the right phrase might be the suburbs of the greater LA Metro Area+ San Diego is the correct phrase
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2020, 04:01:17 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.
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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2020, 04:14:03 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

Yah even California as a whole voted left of the nation in 1972 so basically, 76/80 are the exceptions since the 70s.

Though at a state level California particularly SoCal seemed more Republican than Texas until the mid 1990s though much of that was probably due to residual Democratic strength in the South that didnt go till 1994
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2020, 04:21:07 PM »

1980
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2020, 05:24:27 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

The period when California was to the right of the nation seems to have been a narrow period between 1948 and 1984. California was well to the left of the nation in all four of FDR's elections. I suspect Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan being on the ticket in every race except 1948, 1964. and 1976 may have played a role especially in Southern California.
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2020, 05:28:52 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

The period when California was to the right of the nation seems to have been a narrow period between 1948 and 1984. California was well to the left of the nation in all four of FDR's elections. I suspect Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan being on the ticket in every race except 1948, 1964. and 1976 may have played a role especially in Southern California.

CA I believe  voted to the left of the nation in 1956 and in 1972 as well
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2020, 07:25:18 AM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising.  

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

The period when California was to the right of the nation seems to have been a narrow period between 1948 and 1984. California was well to the left of the nation in all four of FDR's elections. I suspect Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan being on the ticket in every race except 1948, 1964. and 1976 may have played a role especially in Southern California.

CA I believe  voted to the left of the nation in 1956 and in 1972 as well

Yeah it did, especially in 1972.

It just had the tendency to vote to the right when it mattered (1960, 1968, 1976). However, I once calculated NoCal and SoCal results for all elections since 1960 and I seem to remember the Democrat won NoCal in all three election I mentioned (although I am only totally sure about Kennedy).

SoCal might actually have been "on the map" in 2004 still if it were a state (if I recall correctly Oregon and Washington were considered potentially winnable for Bush).
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2020, 08:15:52 AM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

The period when California was to the right of the nation seems to have been a narrow period between 1948 and 1984. California was well to the left of the nation in all four of FDR's elections. I suspect Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan being on the ticket in every race except 1948, 1964. and 1976 may have played a role especially in Southern California.

CA I believe  voted to the left of the nation in 1956 and in 1972 as well

Yeah it did, especially in 1972.

It just had the tendency to vote to the right when it mattered (1960, 1968, 1976). However, I once calculated NoCal and SoCal results for all elections since 1960 and I seem to remember the Democrat won NoCal in all three election I mentioned (although I am only totally sure about Kennedy).

SoCal might actually have been "on the map" in 2004 still if it were a state (if I recall correctly Oregon and Washington were considered potentially winnable for Bush).
Imperial 17,964 Dem 15,890 Rep
Kern 140,417 Rep 68,603 Dem
Los Angeles 1,907,736 Dem 1,076,225 Rep
Orange 641,832 Rep 419,239 Dem
Riverside 322,473 Rep 228,806 Dem
San Bernardino 289,306 Rep 227,789 Dem
San Diego 596,033 Rep 526,437 Dem
San Luis Obispo 67,995 Rep 58,742 Dem
Santa Barbara 90,314 Dem 76,806 Rep
total 3,545,630 Dem 3,226,977 Rep
52.35% Dem 47.65% Rep

Strikingly close. Bush did very well, especially in retrospect.
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2020, 08:27:01 AM »

Imperial 17,964 Dem 15,890 Rep
Kern 140,417 Rep 68,603 Dem
Los Angeles 1,907,736 Dem 1,076,225 Rep
Orange 641,832 Rep 419,239 Dem
Riverside 322,473 Rep 228,806 Dem
San Bernardino 289,306 Rep 227,789 Dem
San Diego 596,033 Rep 526,437 Dem
San Luis Obispo 67,995 Rep 58,742 Dem
Santa Barbara 90,314 Dem 76,806 Rep
total 3,545,630 Dem 3,226,977 Rep
52.35% Dem 47.65% Rep

Strikingly close. Bush did very well, especially in retrospect.

You left out Ventura.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2020, 09:34:24 AM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

Wow so SoCal started voting to the left of Texas at the same time California as a whole did, thats pretty surprising. 

Yep. Actually, California has been left of the nation since the 80's, but that gets obscured by Ford '76 and the Reagan/Bush landslides.

The period when California was to the right of the nation seems to have been a narrow period between 1948 and 1984. California was well to the left of the nation in all four of FDR's elections. I suspect Richard Nixon or Ronald Reagan being on the ticket in every race except 1948, 1964. and 1976 may have played a role especially in Southern California.

CA I believe  voted to the left of the nation in 1956 and in 1972 as well

Yeah it did, especially in 1972.

It just had the tendency to vote to the right when it mattered (1960, 1968, 1976). However, I once calculated NoCal and SoCal results for all elections since 1960 and I seem to remember the Democrat won NoCal in all three election I mentioned (although I am only totally sure about Kennedy).

SoCal might actually have been "on the map" in 2004 still if it were a state (if I recall correctly Oregon and Washington were considered potentially winnable for Bush).
Imperial 17,964 Dem 15,890 Rep
Kern 140,417 Rep 68,603 Dem
Los Angeles 1,907,736 Dem 1,076,225 Rep
Orange 641,832 Rep 419,239 Dem
Riverside 322,473 Rep 228,806 Dem
San Bernardino 289,306 Rep 227,789 Dem
San Diego 596,033 Rep 526,437 Dem
San Luis Obispo 67,995 Rep 58,742 Dem
Santa Barbara 90,314 Dem 76,806 Rep
total 3,545,630 Dem 3,226,977 Rep
52.35% Dem 47.65% Rep

Strikingly close. Bush did very well, especially in retrospect.

The fact that Bush only lost California as a whole by just under double digits is impressive. It’s interesting how Bush’s margin in California is almost identical to Biden’s margin in Alaska.
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2020, 03:58:25 PM »

Imperial 17,964 Dem 15,890 Rep
Kern 140,417 Rep 68,603 Dem
Los Angeles 1,907,736 Dem 1,076,225 Rep
Orange 641,832 Rep 419,239 Dem
Riverside 322,473 Rep 228,806 Dem
San Bernardino 289,306 Rep 227,789 Dem
San Diego 596,033 Rep 526,437 Dem
San Luis Obispo 67,995 Rep 58,742 Dem
Santa Barbara 90,314 Dem 76,806 Rep
total 3,545,630 Dem 3,226,977 Rep
52.35% Dem 47.65% Rep

Strikingly close. Bush did very well, especially in retrospect.

You left out Ventura.
Imperial 17,964 Dem 15,890 Rep
Kern 140,417 Rep 68,603 Dem
Los Angeles 1,907,736 Dem 1,076,225 Rep
Orange 641,832 Rep 419,239 Dem
Riverside 322,473 Rep 228,806 Dem
San Bernardino 289,306 Rep 227,789 Dem
San Diego 596,033 Rep 526,437 Dem
San Luis Obispo 67,995 Rep 58,742 Dem
Santa Barbara 90,314 Dem 76,806 Rep
Ventura 160,314 Rep 148,859 Dem
total 3,694,489 Dem 3,387,291 Rep
52.17% Dem 47.83% Rep
fixed.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2021, 12:43:38 PM »

1980. Reagan got 62% in Southern California and 55% in Texas.

In 1984, Southern California was still at 62% Reagan but Texas is at 64% Reagan.

By 1988, the gap widens and by the 90's, Southern California is voting for Democrats at the presidential level.

It's interesting how 1984 was the election in which California moved to the left of the national average. Reagan received a higher percentage in the state that year (57.51%) than in 1980 (52.69%), but Mondale's percentage (41.27%) was substantially higher than Carter's (35.91%), and Reagan's margin of victory decreased from 16.78% to 16.24%. It seems that Mondale was able to consolidate much of the Anderson vote into the Democratic fold, demonstrated by his flip of Marin County in the Bay Area, which Ford had won with a majority in 1976, and which Reagan held in 1980, but with only a plurality (and Anderson drawing 13% of the vote). Demographic changes, of the kind which made California majority-minority by 1998, also were already underway, and probably had an impact on the results.
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