Would Hillary break 40% in West Virginia?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Go

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes.  Very easily.  She's white.

[WalterMitty]

Yes, but she will not win the state unless the top nominates Mike Bloomberg or Ben carson.

[Xing]

I don't think so. WV has turned strongly Republican, and will probably stay that way for a long time.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No. A 5% swing from Obama 2012 to Hillary 2016 is just absurd.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes.  Very easily.  She's white.

According to that logic, Obama was able to get 44% of the vote in MS in 2012 because he is Black.... oh wait! Seriously, though: The number of WV voters (mostly Democrats, btw) who voted against him because of his race in 2012 is probably as big as the number of people who voted for him because of his race, so I don't think that will have a major impact. But yes, Hillary is a Clinton and not Obama. That alone would gain her at least two points. Plus, she is a woman, that will gain her two points, too. That would get her to 39.54%, she will narrowly fall short of the 40% mark IMO. Of course it depends on the GOP candidate and what kind of campaign she runs, too. But trust me: She won't spend any time and money courting white voters (in WV as well as nationally), she will try to match Obama's numbers among Blacks and Hispanics. WV (White Virginia) is just too white for her to make any major improvements.

Awwww... You still think people are intrinsically good.  How adorable.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Also interesting to note that Natalie Tennent (muh white women) got 34% (!!) of the vote in 2014 , which is even lower than what Obama got. I think that says it all. WV is trending Republican as fast as VA is trending Democratic, Hillary won't break 40% there. Especially if it's a competitive election, which I assume it will be.

We'll see yeah?

[IceSpear]

I think she'll get high 30s. Low 40s is possible, but I wouldn't bank on it.

[henster]

38-39% is probably the best she gets there, wouldn't surprise me if she does worse than Obama.

[Suburbia]

Yes. She'll get 40%-45% of the vote in West Virginia.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes, of course.

[Beet]

Can we have some polls, please? This is where the poll database that Atlas used to have would come in handy.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Before the midterms, my guess was that she would match Obama's 2008 Performance in the state (42.5%). However, after Tennant couldn't even win a single county last year, I am more realistic about the state's competitiveness. Hillary will almost certainly outperform Obama in the state, but she may or may not hit 40%. At this very early date, I'll say she'll get somewhere between 37-41% of the vote.

[WVdemocrat]

I think she may be able to get 40-41%. But if nothing else, I know for a fact she'll at least get one vote.

I really hope she campaigns here though. Like IndyRep said, a majority of voters in this state are Democrats. The problem is they're all Joe Manchin Democrats. They're Democrats who support her on the economy, but oppose her on social issues. Many of them don't turn out to vote. Those that do, usually vote Republican (again, the only exceptions they really make are Joe Manchin and Earl Ray Tomblin, and Robert Byrd when he was around, and so on). If Hillary made a serious attempt to appeal to white blue collar voters, she could flip WV and MO and maybe even AR. But of course, unless the GOP nominates some nut job who has no chance of winning, her resources are going to be better spent in the swing states.

[Thunderbird is the word]

She'd probably be able to win back some of the dirt poor counties in ex southern part of the state like McDowell which even went for Obama just barely in 2008, so probably just barley 40%.

[Beet]

The Democratic party has evaporated in West Virginia. In 2012, Obama got fewer voters than any Democrat since 1920 (which was the biggest landslide in American history). Not a smaller percentage share of the votes, mind you... fewer votes. In terms of share of the vote, you have to go back to 1864... during the Civil freaking War.

[Suburbia]

The Democratic party has evaporated in West Virginia. In 2012, Obama got fewer voters than any Democrat since 1920 (which was the biggest landslide in American history). Not a smaller percentage share of the votes, mind you... fewer votes. In terms of share of the vote, you have to go back to 1864... during the Civil freaking War.

That's true. Manchin is the only popular Democrat in WV.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

LOL

[ApatheticAustrian]

The Democratic party has evaporated in West Virginia. In 2012, Obama got fewer voters than any Democrat since 1920 (which was the biggest landslide in American history). Not a smaller percentage share of the votes, mind you... fewer votes. In terms of share of the vote, you have to go back to 1864... during the Civil freaking War.

That's true. Manchin is the only popular Democrat in WV.

mister justice seems to have stood his ground.

[jaichind]

I think running as the de facto Black Candidate in the 2016 Dem primary killed her chances of any sort of revival in WV.  By running to win the AA vote in the Dem primary in order to finish off Sanders Clinton became Obama II as far as WV is concerned and the result speak for itself.

[Sorenroy]

Of course If Trump is the nominee, she will break 40% everywhere. Anything can happen in politics.

God, these old posts make me sad.

[jaichind]

The collapse of Dems in WV is just amazing.  In 2000 it was 44.6% and now it is down to 26.5%