Hillary's share of the white vote in Mississippi and Alabama
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  Hillary's share of the white vote in Mississippi and Alabama
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Author Topic: Hillary's share of the white vote in Mississippi and Alabama  (Read 485 times)
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« on: March 23, 2015, 02:49:08 PM »

The 2008 exit polls showed Obama as having won about 10% of the white vote in those two states. They were not exit polled in 2012, but his share was probably roughly the same. Will Hillary be able to improve on these showing? I'd guess that she gets up to around 15% in both, given her slightly more populist tint and her (sad as it is) skin color.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2015, 02:52:27 PM »

In 2000, Gore won 26% of white voters in Alabama, but only 17% in Mississippi. I don't see her passing twenty in either state, but the high teens is possible.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2015, 02:57:42 PM »

They were both exit polled in 2012:

http://www.cbsnews.com/election-results-2012/exit.shtml?state=MS&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=G&tag=dataDisplay;3060

http://www.cbsnews.com/election-results-2012/exit.shtml?state=AL&race=P&jurisdiction=0&party=G&tag=dataDisplay;3060

Obama received 10% in MS and 15% in AL.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2015, 08:17:49 PM »

She will not improve Obamas performance by much. And even if she does, that would be compensated by a lower Black turnout and margin. If this was 2000, she would get 20-23%, but after eight years of Obama - no, definitely not. People are overestimating Hillary's appeal among white Southerners and Appalachians. Hillary will court Black and Hispanic voters and not whites in MS. That alone will be a reason why she will do poorly.

She may win some white female votes that would normally either vote Republican or stay home.  Her ability to win white Southern votes is very much overrated, however.  She's not a Southerner and the white South is more Republican by the day. 
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