FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Mr. Smith]

As much as it pains me to admit, this is probably the right decision.

Gotta put everything we've got into NV, NC, PA, NH and possibly MO.

Masto's lost at this point too.

IN or even LA (assuming Campbell pulls through and it isn't D v D...still a far far longshot though] on the other hand....

[heatcharger]

Masto's lost at this point too.

Democrats have historically overperformed polls in Nevada by a lot. The trend towards her in polls recently is also favorable. Basically, turnout is key, so I think she'll win on behalf of the huge GOTV effort of the Reid machine and the Clinton campaign.

[Heisenberg]

As much as it pains me to admit, this is probably the right decision.

Gotta put everything we've got into NV, NC, PA, NH and possibly MO.

Masto's lost at this point too.

IN or even LA (assuming Campbell pulls through and it isn't D v D...still a far far longshot though] on the other hand....

I wish Masto was lost at this point, but the race is not still competitive.
In Louisiana, Campbell and Fayard are equally strong candidates. But they need to have David Duke or Rob Maness as their opponent to win a D vs R runoff, I think.

Edit: Fixed error.

[Figueira]

Rubio could go down in a huge wave, but let's not hold our breaths.

The Democrats need to focus on IN, MO, NC, NV, NH, PA, and IL (although I would be very surprised if the last three didn't flip). All of those are very winnable.

[Kingpoleon]

Democrats never poured in much money here, as they expected Murphy to easily win. Rubio scared away potential donors for just long enough for this to happen. This isn't because Rubio has managed Florida to be so inelastic to where the only possibility is he could win by between two and five. This is because donors saved their money until post-primary so Murphy wouldn't use it against Grayson. Then Rubio managed to scare them off for just long enough for Rubio to secure the edge while the DSCC started pulling back.

[Maxwell]

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

[Figueira]

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

It's reasonable to say that Heck is favored, but saying that Masto is DOOMED is pretty silly.

[syntaxerror]

Murphy is a weak candidate. Graham would have swept the floor.

I still think that he can win though. A Clinton+5 win in Florida isn't too ridiculous considering recent polls, bar Suffolk.

Murphy isn't dead like Strickland is, but the race is becoming lean republican.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

Still lose it. His ceiling there is probably about 45% (Romney got 38% FTR).

[Vosem]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

In 2004, Mel Martinez got 49% statewide and in Dade County; in 2010, Rubio repeated the 49% statewide, but got only 45% in Dade. I think if Rubio wins in the high single digits over Murphy (7-8 points or greater), he should win Dade; it seems that his victory will be a little weaker than that, so Murphy will probably be able to narrowly carry the county, unless Rubio has actually gained Hispanic voters since 2010, which seems unlikely what with his Trump endorsement, but possible considering what a comically inept, scandalous candidate Murphy is. Still pretty amazing considering Clinton is winning the county by around 2:1 or so.

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

I don't know if "trend" is the right word to use here (NV trended right in 2012, and it seems very difficult to deny that it will trend right again in 2016, unless polls are wrong by significantly more than the historical norm), but it's true that it seems Heck's lead is narrow enough that typical undecided break/polling inaccuracy in Nevada should give this one to Masto.

[Heisenberg]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?

In 2004, Mel Martinez got 49% statewide and in Dade County; in 2010, Rubio repeated the 49% statewide, but got only 45% in Dade. I think if Rubio wins in the high single digits over Murphy (7-8 points or greater), he should win Dade; it seems that his victory will be a little weaker than that, so Murphy will probably be able to narrowly carry the county, unless Rubio has actually gained Hispanic voters since 2010, which seems unlikely what with his Trump endorsement, but possible considering what a comically inept, scandalous candidate Murphy is. Still pretty amazing considering Clinton is winning the county by around 2:1 or so.

yeah... no. The polls are narrow enough to where Nevada's beautiful trend will put Masto narrowly over the line.

I don't know if "trend" is the right word to use here (NV trended right in 2012, and it seems very difficult to deny that it will trend right again in 2016, unless polls are wrong by significantly more than the historical norm), but it's true that it seems Heck's lead is narrow enough that typical undecided break/polling inaccuracy in Nevada should give this one to Masto.

Also, in 2010, while Crist ran left of the center on plenty of issues and was seen as close to Obama (as well as an aide leaking days before the election that he would caucus as a Democrat if elected), I think that since Crist was a Republican his entire life until the last few months before the election, it's fair to say that some of his votes would have gone to Rubio in a two-way race. Also, Kendrick Meek was a weak recruit, he never faced a Republican or third party challenger while in his D+34 House seat, often running unopposed or with just token write-in opposition, which meant he never really had much skill fundraising or campaigning. Rubio therefore has the distinction of being the only Republican he's ever faced in an election in his entire career in Congressional politics.

[/]

I'd say we want at least 53 seats, which means we need to focus on these eight:

NC, IL, WI, PA, NH, IN, MO, NC

[Fargobison]

Rubio massively out performing Trump in another poll with Hispanics and also beating Murphy by almost double digits...



http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082#ixzz4MD0ckI5b

[Fargobison]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/784474681537662978

[Heisenberg]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/784474681537662978

Bye-bye, Patrick!

Yes! So long, Fratrick Murphy!

[windjammer]

Thanks god, Trump is imploding, that means Murphy will still have a chance in the end.

[Xing]

The DSCC are idiots for conceding this race, when the polls still don't give Flawless Beautiful Marco that large of an advantage. If he only wins by 1-2%, that will prove that they're incompetent loons.

[KingSweden]

The DSCC are idiots for conceding this race, when the polls still don't give Flawless Beautiful Marco that large of an advantage. If he only wins by 1-2%, that will prove that they're incompetent loons.

Their intervals must tell a different story

[RogueBeaver]

DSCC almost out, only a week of ads left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has it ever happened that a Senate candidate won after the party pulled the plug on them?

[Maxwell]

Has it ever happened that a Senate candidate won after the party pulled the plug on them?

Did the RSCC give up on Thom Tillis (he trailed in just about every poll)? That's the only example I can imagine.

[RogueBeaver]

Caputo writes Fratrick's premortem.

[heatcharger]

Caputo writes Fratrick's premortem.

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I have to agree with this guy. If the bottom truly is falling out for Trump, Rubio is in no way in good shape.

[swf541]

Caputo writes Fratrick's premortem.

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I have to agree with this guy. If the bottom truly is falling out for Trump, Rubio is in no way in good shape.

Agreed, after today I really wonder how the senate elections will be affected, especially if GOP turnout falls off a cliff.