FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Dave Aronberg is the strongest of the electeds, but he was wise not to run here since he's still basically a respectable (if unremarkable) generic D from Palm Beach County.  Joe Abruzzo is an especially awful fit for this district and should be hoping Ted Deutch runs for something else before the next redistricting.  The rest of the Democratic elects aren't much better.  

Our best bet is to run a respected local businessman or physician from St. Lucie County (ideally one who both can and is willing to self-fund) and hope we get lucky.  If by some miracle, said recruit turns out to be another Murphy, they'd have a narrow path to victory against a weak Republican by narrowly winning/losing Palm Beach County, getting at least 42% in Martin, and running up the score in St. Lucie (or at least getting the 55% Murphy got there in 2012).  Failing that, the seat is gone.  

If this sounds like Murphy's victory in 2012, that's because it is.  He basically showed the minimum benchmarks in each county that a Democrat needs to hit in order to win by a razor-thin margin in this district.  If the Republican does everything wrong and the Democrat does everything right then we could keep the district in a neutral year with a little bit of luck.  But there is no margin for error and this seat is probably gonna be a Republican pickup.  

TL;DR: Can the Democrats hold this seat without Murphy?  Sure, there is a very narrow (but realistic) path to victory under the right circumstances.  Will they hold it?  Almost certainly not for a variety of reasons.  And that's without getting into the FL Democratic Party's special brand of complete incompetence.  They're like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football except instead of someone yanking it away at the last second, they keep tripping because they forgot to tie their shoes.

Good post. Joe Abruzzo, as you noted, is a bad fit for the district. I have an idea for a candidate who can do as well as Patrick Murphy and hold the seat. Hint: I ate at his pizza joint a few months ago....

[publicunofficial]

Businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who was Crist's 2014 running mate, will announce for FL-26 against Carlos Curbelo on Monday.

Taddeo has previously ran for Congress, getting 42.1% against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008.

[Donerail]

Probably an easier win than trying to unseat IRL.

[Maxwell]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who was Crist's 2014 running mate, will announce for FL-26 against Carlos Curbelo on Monday.

Taddeo has previously ran for Congress, getting 42.1% against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008.

I was wondering the other day about her political future. I didn't believe she had one .

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

The bench is bad, but not necessarily weak. Joe Negron, who is more interested in being the Senate President, would make a strong candidate. Another unlikely but strong candidate would be Adam Hasner, who I campaigned for in 2012 and who flirted with a bid in 2014. Pat Rooney might be another strong candidate. Hell, maybe even Dave Weldon might attempt (another) comeback!

As long as Carl Domino doesn't give it another go, the seat is likely an Republican hold.

[Donerail]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

The bench is bad, but not necessarily weak. Joe Negron, who is more interested in being the Senate President, would make a strong candidate. Another unlikely but strong candidate would be Adam Hasner, who I campaigned for in 2012 and who flirted with a bid in 2014. Pat Rooney might be another strong candidate. Hell, maybe even Dave Weldon might attempt (another) comeback!

As long as Carl Domino doesn't give it another go, the seat is likely a Republican hold.

It'd be a gain, Sanchez. Don't go grabbing it before you've got it

The Republican bench in FL-18 is weak relative to the Republican bench in most of the rest of Florida, but that's just because the RPOF's bench is strong pretty much everywhere - it's still better than what the Dems have.

[Flake]

Tom Rooney considering a run for Senate

[Flake]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

[Donerail]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

[Flake]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

[Donerail]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

Northern Palm Beach. Seems like a great (by FDP standards) candidate for FL-18.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

Northern Palm Beach. Seems like a great (by FDP standards) candidate for FL-18.

Yeah, I could see her winning in that district...and I have a feeling that is where she will eventually end up by November 2016.

[Bojack Horseman]

Businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who was Crist's 2014 running mate, will announce for FL-26 against Carlos Curbelo on Monday.

Taddeo has previously ran for Congress, getting 42.1% against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008.

I was wondering the other day about her political future. I didn't believe she had one .

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

The bench is bad, but not necessarily weak. Joe Negron, who is more interested in being the Senate President, would make a strong candidate. Another unlikely but strong candidate would be Adam Hasner, who I campaigned for in 2012 and who flirted with a bid in 2014. Pat Rooney might be another strong candidate. Hell, maybe even Dave Weldon might attempt (another) comeback!

As long as Carl Domino doesn't give it another go, the seat is likely an Republican hold.

If I'm not mistaken, didn't Patrick Murphy change districts after ousting Allen West?

[Donerail]

If I'm not mistaken, didn't Patrick Murphy change districts after ousting Allen West?

No, Allen West changed districts after beating Ron Klein in 2010 - West won in the 22nd but ran for re-election in the 18th after his district became somewhat more Democrat in redistricting.

[RogueBeaver]

Atwater not running.

Caputo says CLC v. DeSantis for Pubs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bondi NOT Running: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2015/04/-no-pam-bondi-for-senate-campaign-in-2016.html

[Donerail]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

[windjammer]

Is Grayson running?

[publicunofficial]

Barring a Bush/Rubio nomination, I inclined to think Murphy is the favorite now.

[free my dawg]

!!!!!!!!!!

[Ebsy]

Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

[RogueBeaver]

Atwater ran for that university presidency recently...

[publicunofficial]

Uh, Murphy is certainly not the favorite here. This is still a Toss-up lol. But maybe his coattails will propel Hillary to victory in FL

I'm not saying it's Lean D or anything. But if the race is Patrick Murphy vs. CLC, I'm putting my money on Murphy. I like his odds against a potential George LeMieux or (lol) Vern Buchanan candidacy as well.

That being said, Ron DeSantis or Tom Rooney would make things interesting.