FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[ElectionsGuy]

lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

I disagree-Murphy is pretty well liked by Republicans, and DeSantis (who I am supporting FWIW) is a strong-but not perfect-candidate either.

I'm talking about Miller, not Murphy or DeSantis. I think its likely DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera will get the Republican nomination.

[RogueBeaver]

Grayson raised $1.4M, $2.5M COH.

[windjammer]

Grayson raised $1.4M, $2.5M COH.

Same for Murphy: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/patrick-murphy-raises-another-14-million/2236559

[RogueBeaver]

This is gonna be so fun. Unfortunately the primary isn't for 13 months.

[Donerail]

Ugh.

[JerryArkansas]

God Damn, throwing this away just like with Alex Sink. 

[Pandaguineapig]

I give Grayson about a 40% chance of winning the primary because of depressed turnout

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

I disagree-Murphy is pretty well liked by Republicans, and DeSantis (who I am supporting FWIW) is a strong-but not perfect-candidate either.

I'm talking about Miller, not Murphy or DeSantis. I think its likely DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera will get the Republican nomination.

Gotcha. Yeah, I don't know what the hell Miller is doing.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera
-Rep. Jeff Miller
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. David Jolly (Leaning towards run)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)

-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz
-Former Senator George LeMiuex
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Alan Grayson
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What wings are the different GOPHers catering to? Which one is getting the Club for Growth, which is getting K street etc. etc.

[publicunofficial]

What wings are the different GOPHers catering to? Which one is getting the Club for Growth, which is getting K street etc. etc.

DeSantis = Tea Party, FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, ect.
Lopez-Cantera = Establishment
Miller = SoCons, Hawks

All 3 are also getting regional support.

[Donerail]

What wings are the different GOPHers catering to? Which one is getting the Club for Growth, which is getting K street etc. etc.

DeSantis = Tea Party, FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, ect.
Lopez-Cantera = Establishment
Miller = SoCons, Hawks

All 3 are also getting regional support.

Except that's the thing - the regional support they're getting isn't representative of the whole state. DeSantis has his base in Jax, Miller in the Panhandle, and CLC in Dade County, but none of them are based in (vote and donor-rich) Orlampa. Those voters are up for grabs, and a lot of them, at least in the western half, are waiting to see if Jolly jumps in.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And Jolly is an establishment man, right?

[Donerail]

And Jolly is an establishment man, right?

That's correct, though I'd imagine there's enough money/votes to go around for both Jolly and CLC to be competitive - ideologies are fairly similar, but they have different bases and largely travel in different circles of allies (CLC being a figure of the Scott administration, those establishment members who aren't big fans of Scott could coalesce around Jolly).

[Dereich]

Frankly I don't see that CLC has any base at all. Scott's support came from chambers of commerce, anti-establishment tea party activists, and his own money. His relationship with the FLGOP establishment has always been a marriage of convenience and CLC can't depend on establishment support just from his Scott connection. He also can't rely on a local base; he's an upjumped property appraiser who Scott thought would look good on the ticket, he has no firm support even in Dade.

What I've been seeing CLC doing is rush around the state, trying to pull some of the same Scott base over for himself; he's spoken at quite a few chamber events up here and is trying to cite the administration's job numbers as his own accomplishment. However, even at THAT he's not doing a very good job. As someone who has basically never had to give speeches before, he's not good at it. He has no personality and can't compensate (like Scott can) with a mastery of numbers and statistics. Unless Scott personally puts himself and his money on the line for CLC, something he has no reason to do, I don't see CLC ever going anywhere.

[Donerail]

New St. Pete Polls primary poll has Jolly at 22%, Miller at 12%, CLC at 11%, DeSantis at 9%.

[The Other Castro]

New St. Pete Polls primary poll has Jolly at 22%, Miller at 12%, CLC at 11%, DeSantis at 9%.

Jolly good news!

[free my dawg]

Alan Grayson (Labor-FL) has come out leaning no against the Iran deal, actually sounding more concerned about it than Murphy.

I have no idea what the hell I was thinking ever supporting this guy.

[windjammer]

Alan Grayson (Labor-FL) has come out leaning no against the Iran deal, actually sounding more concerned about it than Murphy.

I have no idea what the hell I was thinking ever supporting this guy.

I read some article about that. Grayson wants the Jewish vote according to some articles.

[SATW]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

[SATW]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. " - Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. " - Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

I agree, maybe it's time you started using the same facts as the rest of the world

[SATW]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. " - Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

I agree, maybe it's time you started using the same facts as the rest of the world

I don't engage in flawed groupthink, sorry Especially if the European Union and this U.S. administration engages in it

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Liking the passive aggressive emoticons people!