FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/03/23/patrick-murphy-florida-senate/

Endorsed

[Lief 🗽]

THE 2016 DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING

[Gass3268]

If I lived in Florida, I'd vote for Grayson in the primary. Yet I would have no reservations endorsing Murphy in the general election.

[Zioneer]

THE 2016 DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING

This but unironically (unless you were serious, in which case I simply agree with you).

[Lief 🗽]

THE 2016 DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING

This but unironically (unless you were serious, in which case I simply agree with you).

I think it's too early to tell, friend, but this is very good news and just the sort of quality recruitment that is required for a genuine wave. Nothing would delight me more than seeing Rubio go down.

[Zioneer]

THE 2016 DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING

This but unironically (unless you were serious, in which case I simply agree with you).

I think it's too early to tell, friend, but this is very good news and just the sort of quality recruitment that is required for a genuine wave. Nothing would delight me more than seeing Rubio go down.

It's looking like Rubio will decline to run for re-election and instead go for the presidency, but yeah, I agree. If the Dems recruit candidates of Murphy-esque quality, we will win back the Senate.

Also, going on Daily Kos, it's amusing to see the disconnect between the Daily Kos "main-pagers" who hate Murphy and love Alan Grayson, and the reality-based Daily Kos Elections guys who are all saying "guys, Murphy is literally our best candidate and votes with us most of the time anyways. If we have Grayson as the nominee, we will lose."

[Panda Express]

Feingold, Murphy and Strickland (which was quite surprising) are 3 terrific recruits. Time to focus on courting Hassan.

With regards to Grayson, if it were state like Connectcut or even just a Dem-leaning state like Minnestoa, I would have no qualms supporting him in the primary. But Florida is a state where the Democratc Party really needs a win.

[Flake]

Murphy is running!

imo this should be the fl-sen megathread instead of 'debbie wasserman schultz is considering a run'

[136or142]

Florida Democratic U.S Representative and liberal Ted Deutch who was also mentioned as a potential U.S Senate candidate endorsed Patrick Murphy.  This may start the process of Florida Democrats rallying around Murphy and keeping Grayson from running.

[Lief 🗽]

I wouldn't mind Grayson running in the primary. He'd lose obviously, so Murphy would get to position himself as a mainstream Democrat facing off against the loony left. Plus we'd replace Grayson in the House with someone less insane.

[136or142]

I wouldn't mind Grayson running in the primary. He'd lose obviously, so Murphy would get to position himself as a mainstream Democrat facing off against the loony left. Plus we'd replace Grayson in the House with someone less insane.

Grayson has gotten more legislation passed during his time in Congress than any other member.  He's far from insane.

He was also correct about the Republican Party platform on healthcare "Don't get sick, and if you do get sick, die quickly."

[Flake]

I think Grayson represents the 9th well, I think he'd be a bad candidate and he shouldn't run.

[windjammer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ok, he's not running for senate. He just wants to get this position.

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't mind Grayson running in the primary. He'd lose obviously, so Murphy would get to position himself as a mainstream Democrat facing off against the loony left. Plus we'd replace Grayson in the House with someone less insane.

The problem would be Grayson bloodying Murphy by accusing him of being a Taliban member or something. He'd have a lot of his own cash with which to do so.

[Xing]

Definitely good news. He'd be a slight underdog against Rubio, though he'd still definitely have a chance. If Rubio runs for president instead, I'd say this is a toss-up. I'm liking the Democratic recruits so far (don't forget about Kander!), they look much stronger than the 2014 crowd.

[136or142]

I wouldn't mind Grayson running in the primary. He'd lose obviously, so Murphy would get to position himself as a mainstream Democrat facing off against the loony left. Plus we'd replace Grayson in the House with someone less insane.

The problem would be Grayson bloodying Murphy by accusing him of being a Taliban member or something. He'd have a lot of his own cash with which to do so.

Grayson has actually settled on being a serious legislator and has toned down his partisan comments significantly.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

[publicunofficial]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.


Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

[Donerail]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

[RogueBeaver]

Atwater telling people he's in.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat will only flip in a wave anyways, Pa is the tipper, with Toomey and NH or OH will give Dems majority.

[IceSpear]

This seat will only flip in a wave anyways, Pa is the tipper, with Toomey and NH or OH will give Dems majority.

I thought FLa. was essential to 272 firewall.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary sits at 257-263 electors, counting either IA or NV, and with CO or OH and NH completing 270, FL with Jeb or Rubio on the ticket is harder to get. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Dave Aronberg is the strongest of the electeds, but he was wise not to run here since he's still basically a respectable (if unremarkable) generic D from Palm Beach County.  Joe Abruzzo is an especially awful fit for this district and should be hoping Ted Deutch runs for something else before the next redistricting.  The rest of the Democratic elects aren't much better.  

Our best bet is to run a respected local businessman or physician from St. Lucie County (ideally one who both can and is willing to self-fund) and hope we get lucky.  If by some miracle, said recruit turns out to be another Murphy, they'd have a narrow path to victory against a weak Republican by narrowly winning/losing Palm Beach County, getting at least 42% in Martin, and running up the score in St. Lucie (or at least getting the 55% Murphy got there in 2012).  Failing that, the seat is gone.  

If this sounds like Murphy's victory in 2012, that's because it is.  He basically showed the minimum benchmarks in each county that a Democrat needs to hit in order to win by a razor-thin margin in this district.  If the Republican does everything wrong and the Democrat does everything right then we could keep the district in a neutral year with a little bit of luck.  But there is no margin for error and this seat is probably gonna be a Republican pickup.  

TL;DR: Can the Democrats hold this seat without Murphy?  Sure, there is a very narrow (but realistic) path to victory under the right circumstances.  Will they hold it?  Almost certainly not for a variety of reasons.  And that's without getting into the FL Democratic Party's special brand of complete incompetance.  They're like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football except instead of someone yanking it away at the last second, they keep tripping because they forgot to tie their shoes.