FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Donerail]

Wait wait wait, why did all the Republican top tier candidates decide to not run? Is the Senate really not that alluring anymore?

Because Murphy is a juggernaut and is able to frighten away the competition.

Now if this were Debbie Wasserman Schultz, (who is vile and a loser), EVERYONE would be running. In fact, thousands of people from OUTSIDE of Florida would be carpetbagging just to run against her because she is so awful.

LOL!

It's true - run now for the less important position when you're more likely to lose, or run later for the more powerful position when you're much more likely to win?

[Beet]

Exactly, guys. DWS is running for president.

Although she'll probably lose Florida in the GE because Murphy is so bad.

[Donerail]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

[publicunofficial]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

Emily Cahn on Twitter.

[Donerail]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

Emily Cahn on Twitter.

With Schorsch saying that he'd heard the same from his sources after Atwater dropped out; he also noted the announcement was supposed to be today, but DeSantis didn't want to step on Rubio's toes.

[Ebsy]

I guess that moved this race into toss up.

[Xing]

Wow, a lot can happen in a few days! With Rubio and Atwater out, I think we can agree that this race is a toss-up. I'd even say it's the third-best pick-up opportunity for Democrats, after IL and WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

[publicunofficial]

Both Sabato and Rothenberg have moved Florida to Toss-Up. As has Charlie Cook.

[Ebsy]

Both Sabato and Rothenberg have moved Florida to Toss-Up.

This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

lmao

[Flake]

Florida Senate President Don Gaetz looking at running

[Brewer]

Florida Senate President Don Gaetz looking at running

He seems wealthy enough to self-fund; is he very well-known down there?

[Flake]

Florida Senate President Don Gaetz looking at running

He seems wealthy enough to self-fund; is he very well-known down there?

Not at all

[moderatevoter]

This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

If OC says this is Lean R, then this race must be Safe R.

In all seriousness, this is a Tossup, and the GOP primary could get nasty.

Is Atwater this cycle's Brian Schweitzer? Looked like he was going to run and suddenly backed out. Regardless, with him out, the GOP primary could get messy.

[Donerail]

This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

If OC says this is Lean R, then this race must be Safe R.

In all seriousness, this is a Tossup, and the GOP primary could get nasty.

Is Atwater this cycle's Brian Schweitzer? Looked like he was going to run and suddenly backed out. Regardless, with him out, the GOP primary could get messy.

Nah, the RPOF's bench is much better and deeper than MT Dems - but yeah, this could be a very messy primary. Hadn't heard about Gaetz wanting to take a shot at it; he could probably get the 'Tally insider' crowd, but he's not that well-known in the rest of the state.

[publicunofficial]

Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron (R) has declared for FL-18. 2014 nominee Carl Domino (R) is likely to follow.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis (Will decide "in next few weeks", supported by Club for Growth, Freedomworks, Tea Party Express)
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. Tom Rooney (Meeting with the NRSC on Thursday)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Vern Buchanan (Interested)
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford (Doesn't sound interested, hasn't said no yet)
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)


Out of all of these guys, I'd bet on DeSantis being the most likely to win the nomination. Rooney however would shake things up if he ran, and would be the strongest possible GOP nominee IMO. CLC will run, but I doubt he wins the primary. Jolly would be interesting, but he's a bit too liberal to win a primary (He supports same-sex marriage). Vern Buchanan is wealthy, but his ethics issues will sink him in a statewide race. Dennis Ross has been mentioned, but I doubt he enters and I heavily doubt he'll be the nominee if he does. I also doubt Weatherford runs.

As for the rest; Yoho would be the worst possible candidate, Don Gaetz is a nobody, and George LeMieux couldn't compete in a primary against f**king Connie Mack IV.


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested, might just be extorting committee assignments)


I'm predicting Patrick Murphy vs. Ron DeSantis for the final match-up.

[Donerail]

At this point (disregarding CLC, whose backing seems thin), it looks like it'll be a battle between Jolly and DeSantis for the soul of the RPOF.

[publicunofficial]

At this point (disregarding CLC, whose backing seems thin), it looks like it'll be a battle between Jolly and DeSantis for the soul of the RPOF.

I think Rooney is more likely to run and more likely to be competitive than Jolly. I hope Jolly runs to open up his seat, but I doubt it.

[windjammer]

So Grayson is likely out?

Cool .

Well, I'm being more and more optimistic about this race. (Still a toss up obviously though)

[Panda Express]

Patrick Murphy is only 32 years old?

[windjammer]

Patrick Murphy is only 32 years old?

Yes . He will only be 33 if he's elected senator.

[Flake]

Actually, on Grayson's twitter page (iirc) he mentioned that he was encouraged by the support he's receiving about a possible run, so I'm pegging him as likely to run.

[windjammer]

Actually, on Grayson's twitter page (iirc) he mentioned that he was encouraged by the support he's receiving about a possible run, so I'm pegging him as likely to run.

Oh dear god,
Florida democrats will still be a joke if they nominate him.