FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[CountryClassSF]

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Depends I guess on the mood and the candidate.  I'm a huge fan of his so we'll see what happens.

[Donerail]

Bongino has a bright future as the next Bob Smith.

[windjammer]

No news about Grayson?

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera (Likely running, won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Interested, looks to be running)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)

-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz
-Former Senator George LeMiuex
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)

Don Gaetz is out, possibly indicating that Jeff Miller will run for Senate (Gaetz would be the front-runner for an open FL-01).

George LeMieux will also not run, to the disappointment of no one.

[PPT Spiral]

Would McCollum fare well in the general election or is he just too old by now?

[publicunofficial]

Would McCollum fare well in the general election or is he just too old by now?

The one poll we've had of the primary had McCollum in a strong lead, but that's probably due to name recognition more than anything else. If he got in, I would see him polling well at the start before falling behind DeSantis/CLC/Miller as they become more well-known.

[Donerail]

Would McCollum fare well in the general election or is he just too old by now?

Anecdotally, the people that I know are very much hoping for McCollum to run. Of course, they're all Democrats, so take that as you will.

[Donerail]

New St. Leo poll:

Generic D has a 3-point lead over generic R for the Senate race, 42-39. Murphy leads the primary 27-24 over Grayson. The Republican field is clearly led by Bill McCollum (16%), with various others (Miller, CLC, DeSantis, Jolly) within a point or two of 7%, with Gaetz and LeMieux a few points behind them. In test matchups, Murphy hovers around 33%, with various Republicans around 14%.

[Miles]

^ Between this and the PA poll, I wish we got polls that didn't have "undecided" leading both actual candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

^ Between this and the PA poll, I wish we got polls that didn't have "undecided" leading both actual candidates.


Sestak is weak in polls because he isnt a high pofile candidate like Strickland. He will be fine. Murphy will win due to Clinton draw towards Latinos. He will also win due to unpopularity of Scott.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

^ Between this and the PA poll, I wish we got polls that didn't have "undecided" leading both actual candidates.


Sestak is weak in polls because he isnt a high pofile candidate like Strickland. He will be fine. Murphy will win due to Clinton draw towards Latinos. He will also win due to unpopularity of Scott.

I'm fully expecting Murphy to win, but
a) Sestak is quite a high profile candidate. That's why he's dominating the unknowns in the D primary.
b) Murphy will win without any help from Clinton or Scott. He will run his own race and make this win happen if he does indeed come out on top.
c) Is Strickland winning in your current predictions? I can't tell what your latest is because you've changed your Senate map SEVENTY TWO times!! Predictions just came out. If every person was you, we'd have easily disproven the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and most of Information Theory by now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Between this and the PA poll, I wish we got polls that didn't have "undecided" leading both actual candidates.


Sestak is weak in polls because he isnt a high pofile candidate like Strickland. He will be fine. Murphy will win due to Clinton draw towards Latinos. He will also win due to unpopularity of Scott.

Because Scott's unpopularity cost him the election last year, right? Oh wait.....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was referring to fundraising capacity. Bill Clinton has started campaigning for Strickland and Murphy, not Sestak.

But, Hillary will be campaigning heavily in Pa.

Scott won in a midterm and he had a Latino running mate.

FL love the Clinton administration, he won FL in 1996, and even a weak candidate like Gore almost won.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Noelle Nikpour will run in FL-22, not FL-18, if she does run (which is highly likely). You heard it from me first.

[RogueBeaver]

Grayson staffing up.

[Donerail]

Fun map from the Palm Beach Post showing where all the different candidates are moving into FL-18 from.

[Free Bird]

Grayson staffing up.

[RogueBeaver]

CLC announcing July 15.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CLC announcing July 15.

Looking forward to Murphy giving this guy a nice spanking in 2016.

[SATW]

Can't wait til CLC gives Murphy a nice spanking.

[Zioneer]

All this talk about spanking is kind of creepy.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

All this talk about spanking is kind of creepy.

You need a spanking

[RogueBeaver]

Grayson is probably running and will announce next month.

[windjammer]

Grayson is probably running and will announce next month.

I trust Tester to bomb this ass hole.

[ElectionsGuy]

Grayson is probably running and will announce next month.

Yay