FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Might this be the "big announcement" he mentioned yesterday (60 Minutes appearance)?  Or is it yet to come?
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-to-appear-on-sundays-60-minutes/2274299

No idea. I didn't go into the office today since everyone's down in Hollywood for the conclave and the other guys decided to make it a three day weekend. I was hoping to have some back office gossip to report .

On a different note, I've been meaning to ask you something.  It seems like in either Tampa or St. Petersburg (I forget which one) the Scientologists seem to exert a huge level of influence over local Republican politics.  Do you have any idea why that is?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Might this be the "big announcement" he mentioned yesterday (60 Minutes appearance)?  Or is it yet to come?
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-to-appear-on-sundays-60-minutes/2274299

No idea. I didn't go into the office today since everyone's down in Hollywood for the conclave and the other guys decided to make it a three day weekend. I was hoping to have some back office gossip to report .

On a different note, I've been meaning to ask you something.  It seems like in either Tampa or St. Petersburg (I forget which one) the Scientologists seem to exert a huge level of influence over local Republican politics.  Do you have any idea why that is?

No but I hear a lot of jokes cracked about it. SJoyce could tell you, he knows more than I do about state politics.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Jolly released an ad that did not mention his Senate campaign once, leading many to speculate that he might recycle it if he drops out of the Senate race.

[Vosem]

Jolly released an ad that did not mention his Senate campaign once, leading many to speculate that he might recycle it if he drops out of the Senate race.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Article touching on the race-switch idea:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/jolly-should-stay-in-house-take-on-crist-or-lynn-says-clearwater-mayor/2274632

[Heisenberg]

Article touching on the race-switch idea:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/jolly-should-stay-in-house-take-on-crist-or-lynn-says-clearwater-mayor/2274632

I think it would be in the GOP's best interests to have Jolly defend his House seat, and settle on one of the other candidates (like DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera).  That would help them in the GE.

[Xing]

Why would Jolly want to defend his now dark blue house seat? Also, upon reflecting on the FL Democratic Primary, I've realized that I can't fathom Grayson winning. How could there be so many Clinton/Grayson voters? Not to mention that there must be some Sanders/Murphy supporters.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The new FL-13 is actually slightly less democratic than the new FL-26, which most analysts see as competitive. The Republicans were going to have the popular mayor of St. Petersburg run, but he won't do it. It's pretty much Jolly or bust at this point.

[Maxwell]

From what little I've heard, Jolly is not doing very well in the Senate race. Maybe so badly that he thinks going back to his house seat with his tail between his legs would be better.

[Heisenberg]

The new FL-13 is actually slightly less democratic than the new FL-26, which most analysts see as competitive. The Republicans were going to have the popular mayor of St. Petersburg run, but he won't do it. It's pretty much Jolly or bust at this point.

FL-13 is only D+3 on Cook (see their website with updated ratings) and FL-26 is EVEN.  It's not impossible for Jolly to win, he seems like the right type of Republican to win.

[IceSpear]

Why would Jolly want to defend his now dark blue house seat? Also, upon reflecting on the FL Democratic Primary, I've realized that I can't fathom Grayson winning. How could there be so many Clinton/Grayson voters? Not to mention that there must be some Sanders/Murphy supporters.

He won't win.

But if by some miracle he did, it would be due to ultra low turnout bringing out only the True Believers. This is why presidential primaries and statewide primaries should always be on the same day.

[Maxwell]

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/desantis-raises-more-in-us-senate-campaign-than-4-gop-opponents-combined/2274647

DeSantis continues to lap the Republican field in terms of fundraising.

Fundraising 1st Quarter of 2016
DeSantis - $1.1 Million
Wilcox - $359,000 ($250,000 from a personal loan)
Jolly - $308,000
Lopez-Cantera - $251,000

In addition, his Super PAC has $1.2 Million to support him with, while Lopez-Cantera trails with around $700,000 and Jolly flails with around $272,000. Of course, Jolly is attempting to re-vamp his image as an anti-campaign finance candidate, so... maybe it's his strategy?

Then Murphy is beating them all with around $2 Million raised, but Grayson isn't doing terribly (he raised $820,000, and largely from small donors).

[Vosem]

Jolly could win his current, redistricted congressional district, but he would need a good year and a bad opponent. He has neither.

[Heisenberg]

Jolly could win his current, redistricted congressional district, but he would need a good year and a bad opponent. He has neither.

Good year: No
Bad opponent: Maybe yes, maybe no.  If I were running against Crist, I would go all out and aggressively attack him for being a total power-hungry opportunist who literally says and does anything just to gain positions of power.  It may not work, though.  I do think the GOP needs to settle with one candidate, though, and DeSantis may be the one because of his big war chest.  Jolly is not too bad, though.

[Vosem]

Crist is very popular in his home region, though. He carried Pinellas County in 2010 even as he lost the state by 19 points.

[Ebsy]

What is even going on in Florida at this point? What a mass.

[Heisenberg]

Crist is very popular in his home region, though. He carried Pinellas County in 2010 even as he lost the state by 19 points.

Oh right.  Even if the tactic I mentioned works well outside Pinellas County, it doesn't seem to work there.

[Frodo]

When is the Florida Senate primary?  And is Grayson still leading Murphy among Democrats?

[Heisenberg]

When is the Florida Senate primary?  And is Jolly still leading Murphy among Democrats?

The primary is August 30.  Do you mean is Grayson leading Murphy among Democrats?  If so, I think he still is at the moment.

[publicunofficial]

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Sometimes, you're alright Charlie Crist.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jolly says he won't vote for TRUMP, CLC says he will but doesn't seem enthusiastic about it:

http://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/election/article75570552.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lol, at this rate even Grayson would probably beat these guys. I think it might be time to move this race to Leans D.

How is not being wholeheartedly behind TRUMP a bad thing? I think it helps these candidates.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lol, at this rate even Grayson would probably beat these guys. I think it might be time to move this race to Leans D.

How is not being wholeheartedly behind TRUMP a bad thing? I think it helps these candidates.

There's a LOT of Hispanic Republicans in the state that hate Trump. Miami-Dade is going to be a disaster if they fully endorse him (it already will be for the presidential race).

[publicunofficial]

lol



Part of me is really going to miss Harry Reid.

[This account no longer in use.]

#JustFloridemThings