FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[windjammer]

Either he runs for reelection or he doesn't, is it so complicate to decide?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Either he runs for reelection or he doesn't, is it so complicate to decide?

It is when you would prefer to do one thing and your party is screaming at you to do something else.

[Vosem]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

[windjammer]

Oh just to be clear, I don't think he will overperform any of the other candidates. He's such a moron who lost badly his own state.
What is annoying more is all the talks about him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Graham will be primaried. He only got 56% against a bunch of no-names in 2014, and always polled terribly in SC presidential primary polls.

[windjammer]

Oh just to be clear, I don't think he will overperform any of the other candidates. He's such a moron who lost badly his own state.
What is annoying more is all the talks about him.

That's like saying Lindsey Graham will lose reelection in 2020 because he would have lost SC in the Republican primary this year. Rubio would be far from a lock, but all the other Republican candidates can't win in a presidential year in Florida.

Oh come on,
This isn't comparable. SC is a solid GOP state, while Florida is a toss up. When you're a major presidential candidate like Rubio was, it looks really bad when the people of your own state rejected you so badly.

And yes, Wulfric's point is correct, Graham is going to have a tough time to be reelected in 2020.

[windjammer]

So who do you think would be a stronger candidate than Rubio? Carlos Beruff? lol

Beruff is the worst, but I don't think Rubio would overperform De Santis or Carlos Lopez for example.

[Skye]

Problem is, he loses and he's probably done.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, we will see, I guess. My prediction is that the GOP will hold this seat if Rubio decides to run for reelection and lose it if he doesn't.

[windjammer]

Well, we will see, I guess. My prediction is that the GOP will hold this seat if Rubio decides to run for reelection and lose it if he doesn't.

And my prediction is that Rubio would have got the same score than Carlos Lopez and David Jolly. De Santis would perform a bit better and Carlos Beruff, well, much worse lol.

[tmthforu94]

^^ Graham will be primaried. He only got 56% against a bunch of no-names in 2014, and always polled terribly in SC presidential primary polls.

That is what everyone said in 2014 and he won easily. He has a firm hold on the state GOP which is why only nominal candidates ran against him.

[Heisenberg]

I think Rubio would be favored if he ran for reelection from the get-go, and never ran for president. But if he jumps back in, I'd say only 50-50. The fact that he was originally against running for reelection after dropping it would hurt him if he jumped back in.

[Blair]

Also I'm not sure how much Money Rubio has, or his Super-Pac has but it's a lot more difficult than just jumping back in

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

^^ Graham will be primaried. He only got 56% against a bunch of no-names in 2014, and always polled terribly in SC presidential primary polls.

That is what everyone said in 2014 and he won easily. He has a firm hold on the state GOP which is why only nominal candidates ran against him.

I'm not so sure. Had he had a major challenger with united opposition support, he'd be finished. He was fortunate enough to have eight primary opponents in 2014.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

[windjammer]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

You are over-confident, and really.

[Free Bird]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

You are over-confident, and really.

Yes. Gwen Graham is overrated. So is Patrick Murphy.

[Vosem]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

Fair enough.

[Heisenberg]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

Fair enough.

I agree. Putnam will, in all likelihood be the next Governor of Florida.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

You are over-confident, and really.

No. Keep on building that Graham myth up though. It'll only help Putnam.

[windjammer]

And either way, it makes him a caricature of a craven, power hungry establishment pol.  If he has dreams of 2020/24, much better for him to sit this one out and run for governor in 2 years.

Why's that? Cory Gardner did it and it didn't reflect poorly at all.

Adam Putnam is going to be the Republican candidate for Governor in 2018, so that possibility is right out.

Candidate? He'll be the Republican Governor. Only Graham could make it a race against him and even that seems unlikely.

You are over-confident, and really.

No. Keep on building that Graham myth up though. It'll only help Putnam.

Keep on what?
Where did I say she was going to win the FL  gubernational easily?

[Dereich]

I think Nelson will retire, so Graham might run for that instead.  But it would be better in the long run for the FL Dem party to elect a governor, because the center-left majority on the state supreme court that just gave them better districts to run in is at stake in 2018.

The so-called "center-left" SCoF was majority appointed by Republicans but the Governor doesn't matter very much on this issue. Once there is a vacancy on the Court a commission nominates several names and the Governor picks one of the names given to them.

The commission is made up of three members appointed by the Florida Bar, three by the Governor (who serve 4 year terms, so it could be the previous Governor), and three by the other six. A bunch of openings on the Court will happen in 2019 because of retirement laws but it'll probably still be Scott's people on the judicial nominating committee which selects the choices given to the Governor.

[Vega]

If Crist were to drop into the Senate race, and Rubio were to run, that would be a nice 2010 redux with a twist.

[Heisenberg]

I would not be too surprised if this turns into a repeat of 1986/1988, where going into the 1986 election, Republicans held the Class 3 seat and Democrats held the Class 1 seat, and then, two years later, it was reversed.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

While I agree with Sanchez that Graham is overrated (B-B-BUT SHE WON IN 2014!!1!) , I must say that he's also way too confident about Republican chances of holding Rubio's seat this year.

No, I'm certain that the Senate race is a tossup. I've never said that Murphy could lose, though I have said that he's overrated and that you continually underestimate the talent that the GOP has centralized whereas Democratic victories in the state tend to come not from their state apparatus but rather from their individual campaigns.