FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[JMT]

Any word on what Gwen Graham will be doing next year / when she'll announce her plans? If she wants to run for Senate, the clock is ticking. She would need to raise a lot of money and go against Patrick Murphy, who is favored by the establishment at this point.

[JMT]

Jolly says all signs are pointing to him running again

Jolly is probably saying this to prep himself to run for his house seat against Charlie Crist, in the event that Rubio actually does jump in. Maybe it's possible Rubio has warned Jolly of the possibility of him jumping back in the senate race, so Jolly can file to run for the house seat? I doubt it, but maybe.

[JMT]

St Pete Polls for FL-13: Jolly and Crist tied at 44%.

If Crist loses this race, I'll be pissed off because another Democrat could likely win it (this same poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 10 points in the district, while Crist and Jolly are tied. Also, 53% of respondents said they voted Obama in 2012). I really hope Jolly stays in the Senate race so Dems can safely lock up this seat... If Crist loses yet another winnable race his political career should be over for good.

[JMT]

Here's the article.

Interesting thoughts. I suppose if donors and many in the party promised to support CLC for CFO in 2018 and Ron DeSantis for AG, perhaps they would step aside for Rubio and hope they have a clear shot for those offices in 2018. It looks like Jolly might drop out of the Senate race regardless of what Rubio does to run for reelection to his house seat this year, and if Jolly loses, he could try for statewide office in 2018 too. Another option if Rubio runs, too, is for any of the candidates to run for the other Senate seat in 2018 against Nelson. It seems as if Rick Scott wants that seat though, and probably will run for it, but he's not very popular. So it'll be interesting to see if anyone takes Scott on in the primary, assuming he runs for the seat.

[JMT]

I think Rubio decides against running for one main reason: He's not a shoo-in for the general election.
Of course Rubio will win the primary if he runs (looks likely DeSantis and Jolly drop out and run for their house seats again, and CLC gets out too), but Rubio will have a credible Democratic opponent in Patrick Murphy and and it's a Presidential year in Florida. Not to mention, Trump is at the top of the ticket and could drag him down. So Rubio could win the general, but it's no guarantee. I think this race is a toss up with Rubio vs. Murphy (but lean D with the other republican candidates, to be fair).   

Also, Rubio doesn't need to be in the Senate to launch a 2020 presidential bid (or 2024 if Trump wins), he'll still be a credible candidate even if he's a "former" senator. We all know he really actually wants to be president. And if he loses a senate race this fall, that's not a good way to then jump in to the presidential race, he'll lose a lot of credibility and steam. So why take the risk of running for reelection when you don't have to?

[JMT]

So, with Jolly out and possibility of Rubio not getting into the race, who is the frontrunner? Lopez-Cantera, DeSantis or Beruff?

If Rubio doesn't run, I think DeSantis is the frontrunner. He seems to have the best campaign going, is avoiding the mudslinging produced by the Lopez-Cantera and Beruff campaigns, and seems to be pretty conservative (could be popular with the GOP base in a low turnout primary election).

[JMT]

Yup, here's the link. Rubio is in.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/22/politics/marco-rubio-reverses-and-will-run-for-senate-seat/index.html?adkey=bn

I'm actually shocked

[JMT]

I'll never understand why people who fail smaller races think they'll do better statewide.

Generally speaking this makes sense, and I'm sure you are right in the sense many candidates wouldn't do better statewide if they failed a smaller races. One candidate I can think of that successfully did this, however, is Maggie Hassan. Hassan lost reelection to her state senate seat in 2010, then successfully ran for governor two years later.

[JMT]

TNVolunteer, I really don't think Maggie Hassan will ever even attempt a run for president.

I agree, I think Hassan will win the Senate seat and probably be a Senate lifer (or if she retires from the Senate / loses reelection at some point, she'll be done with politics)

[JMT]

Huckabee wouldn't be able to clear a field of candidates considering he was a politician from Arkansas. Plus, big names in Florida like Adam Putnam and Jeff Atwater are likely planning to run for Governor and could defeat Huckabee.

If Huckabee is actually interested in holding political office in Florida, though, running against Bill Nelson in 2018 for his Senate seat could provide a better opportunity from him. As I mentioned above, a lot of the rising stars in Florida are looking at running for Governor in 2018, so Republicans may be looking for a big name to run against Nelson for the Senate seat. Huckabee could take advantage of that, and with a President Clinton likely being unpopular, maybe he would have a shot at winning (but he'd likely still be the underdog against Nelson).