FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Heisenberg]

Looks like the new districts are here to stay.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/court-rejects-bid-to-throw-out-florida-congressional-map/2016/04/18/4d34ecec-05c6-11e6-bfed-ef65dff5970d_story.html

[Heisenberg]

Jolly says he has a "big announcement" to make.  Sounds like he may try to defend his House seat instead of fight through a rough primary, and risk losing.  I've wondered why he wasn't running for his House seat, though the new boundaries have a slight Democratic tilt, he seems like the right type of Republican who could win.

[Heisenberg]

Might this be the "big announcement" he mentioned yesterday (60 Minutes appearance)?  Or is it yet to come?
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-to-appear-on-sundays-60-minutes/2274299

[Heisenberg]

Article touching on the race-switch idea:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/jolly-should-stay-in-house-take-on-crist-or-lynn-says-clearwater-mayor/2274632

I think it would be in the GOP's best interests to have Jolly defend his House seat, and settle on one of the other candidates (like DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera).  That would help them in the GE.

[Heisenberg]

The new FL-13 is actually slightly less democratic than the new FL-26, which most analysts see as competitive. The Republicans were going to have the popular mayor of St. Petersburg run, but he won't do it. It's pretty much Jolly or bust at this point.

FL-13 is only D+3 on Cook (see their website with updated ratings) and FL-26 is EVEN.  It's not impossible for Jolly to win, he seems like the right type of Republican to win.

[Heisenberg]

Jolly could win his current, redistricted congressional district, but he would need a good year and a bad opponent. He has neither.

Good year: No
Bad opponent: Maybe yes, maybe no.  If I were running against Crist, I would go all out and aggressively attack him for being a total power-hungry opportunist who literally says and does anything just to gain positions of power.  It may not work, though.  I do think the GOP needs to settle with one candidate, though, and DeSantis may be the one because of his big war chest.  Jolly is not too bad, though.

[Heisenberg]

Crist is very popular in his home region, though. He carried Pinellas County in 2010 even as he lost the state by 19 points.

Oh right.  Even if the tactic I mentioned works well outside Pinellas County, it doesn't seem to work there.

[Heisenberg]

When is the Florida Senate primary?  And is Jolly still leading Murphy among Democrats?

The primary is August 30.  Do you mean is Grayson leading Murphy among Democrats?  If so, I think he still is at the moment.

[Heisenberg]

David Jolly = FF

Sorry to ask this, but in the few months I've been here, I'm still not quite sure what FF and HP stand for.  Can someone please explain.

[Heisenberg]

David Jolly = FF

Sorry to ask this, but in the few months I've been here, I'm still not quite sure what FF and HP stand for.  Can someone please explain.

FF = Freedom Fighter
HP = Horrible Person

Thank you for explaining.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe it's time the Republicans rally behind DeSantis? Has anybody heard if he supports Trump or not?

[Heisenberg]

I think the GOP should rally around DeSantis. He really seems to be their strongest candidate.

[Heisenberg]

Gosh I hope a Libertarian/Third party doesn't spoil this race. The GOP really needs to hang on to this seat (and OH and PA).

[Heisenberg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

[Heisenberg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

[Heisenberg]

His parents are allowled to donate to his SUPER-PAC; it's the candidate who isn't allowed to communicate with them.

I need to learn a lot more about the rules. I can tell you that the Super-PAC is not the problem, it's that his parents and Ami Bera's parents coalesced in a donor swap that may be illegal.

[Heisenberg]

We have plenty of ammo against Murphy anyway. This isn't a major tier scandal. Might help tarnish his image but he isn't going to the big house over it.

Ammo? Like what else could DeSantis or Jolly use against Privileged Patrick? And as I stated, this scandal is not really about him, but his parents.

[Heisenberg]

What are the Republicans going to attack him for? Murphy was a Republican up until mid-2012 and supported Mitt Romney in the GOP primary that year.

He's basically what a sane Republican congressman would look like if such a thing existed at this point.

He didn't endorse Romney in the general, did he?

He endorsed Romney's 2008 primary campaign, and switched parties in 2011, citing his socially liberal views and disgust of Tea Party extremism. His parents are still Republicans, though, to my knowledge. Anyway, voting for Murphy is still an implicit vote for Schumer as majority leader and for a liberal Senate agenda over a more conservative one, so I'll support the GOP nominee here.

[Heisenberg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?

Several articles about Murphy controversies.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/fdp-now-getting-rid-10k-al-rashid-donation
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/patrick-murphy-donates-contributions-from-friend-who-pleaded-guilty-to/2277613
Apparently he gave away some money he got from a friend who was later found guilty of domestic violence.

[Heisenberg]

Carlos Beruff surges to lead in U.S. Senate primary among Republican activists in poll

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If Beruff wins the Republican nomination, Republicans can kiss this seat goodbye.

It would be the first time in 12 years Democrats hold both Florida Senate seats. Republicans need to attack Beruff. CLC should just drop out and prep for a run for the other seat in two years, he's not going anywhere this year. Then, unite behind Jolly or DeSantis (probably the latter).

[Heisenberg]

There is no circumstance where Grayson is electable.

Against a guy who called Obama an animal, said "“I don’t think it’s safe to allow anybody from the Middle East into this country." and lied about his biography??

Grayson would beat Beruff by 10 points. In fact, Grayson's ads and speeches are excellent, whether you agree with him or not. He is a very underrated candidate.

Fire-breathing Grayson can't beat Jolly, DeSantis, or CLC (but he won't lose by a margin as big as some people here would think), but he would easily beast Beruff. Beruff is the kind o candidate who can genuinely beat up like a piñata.

[Heisenberg]

^The FL race is important because I consider Republicans slight underdogs in NH, IL and WI. If you add FL to the list and Clinton wins November, Republicans are basically guaranteed to lose the Senate, unless Heck wins in NV. Republicans must defeat Sharron Angle at all costs.

FL will probably be the tipping point of Senate control. Don't worry about Angle, she's getting destroyed by Koch Borthers favorite Heck. You got this Joe, 20 days until the primary. Just don't mess up.

[Heisenberg]

Carlos Beruff leading in the polls???

In one poll, after a YUGE ad blitz, and plenty of undecideds. Hopefully his lead collapses.

[Heisenberg]

The best thing Republicans can do at this point is just coalesce around DeSantis. I think he's the strongest candidate they have. (Assuming Rubio doesn't run.)

[Heisenberg]

I thought the deadline is/was sometime in early or mid-May.

I think that was for judges. The deadline for House and Senate is June 24.