FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

David Jolly = FF

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Rubio himself has admitted he hates the senate.
How can he go now and ask Florida's voters with a straight face to send him back where he hates to be?

It's not just this; in a presidential debate earlier this hear, he "justified" his Senate absences by saying, "I'm not running for reelection."

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Is Rubio going to use the Orlando shooting as an excuse to get back in?

Hugh HewittVerified account
‏@hughhewitt
.@marcorubio, deeply impacted by shooting, tells me he has to rethink all his plans, talk with his family, consider his service...

Don't do it, Marco!

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Why would Florida want a Senator who will go absentee again in 3 years? lol

Beruff has challenged Rubio to pledge to serve a full term, let's see if Rubio makes the pledge before jumping to conclusions.

He also pledged he wouldn't run for re-election, and even used that as a (sorry) excuse for his absenteeism.

Yeah, this is what I don't understand. How do you go from this to getting reelected?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Trumps biggest problem in Florida is Cubans, who also happen to be Rubio's base in Florida.  He's gonna over-perform Trump BIG TIME in South Florida, just look at the primary map.  I'm not worried at all.

Right. Many of the Trump primary voters will come home to Rubio in the general; Florida is a closed primary state, I believe. And Cubans in Miami-Dade County will push him over the top (I think).

^Chill. I'm just glad that I can move this race from Safe D to Tossup now. Sorry, but Beruff (lol), Wilcox, Jolly, DeSantis and CLC would have all lost by double or high single digits to Murphy or Grayson. Rubio vs. Murphy is a tossup, and of course Republicans shouldn't get too cocky about this race. Both Murphy and Grayson CAN beat Rubio.

Anyway, IMO the FL Senate race now becomes a must win for the GOP, since Democrats are already guaranteed to win in NH (Safe D), heavily favored to win WI (Lean D) and slightly favored to win IL (Tilt D).

I agree. Rubio clearly is the strongest Republican for this seat, and now, instead of having a fractured field, the Establishment and donors can rally around an incumbent. The three you mentioned will give Democrats 3 of the 4 seats for the majority (since they're favored to win the presidency at this point). Republicans blew the Class 3 seat from Colorado (as they always do), and have to win all the other competitive races (unless they pick up Nevada, which is a toss up). Arizona is probably gone if McCain falls, IMO.

What, you don't think Kelli Chemtrail can hold that seat?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

What, you don't think Kelli Chemtrail can hold that seat?

Are you joking? McCain already has far more statewide recognition, and seems to do much better in the polls. He also does better with moderates and Hispanics, who I doubt would be too fond of Kelli Ward. If McCqin is down by 2 (even in a D internal poll), Ward is a weak candidate.

I know she's a garbage candidate; I was kidding.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The Republican Party should be absolutely ashamed of itself for what it has done to Murphy. How is that remotely acceptable?

So Democrats propping up Todd Akin in 2012 wasn't OK, either, right?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Petition to rename this thread "The Utter Humiliation of Alan Grayson"

LOL, even Pam Keith almost beat him

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I also made a Republican map

I love that Beruff didn't even win a single county. Hopefully we won't ever see him run for office again.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So... as someone who doesn't know much about political geography in Florida:

Do we expect Rubio to actually carry Miami-Dade County, or just over-perform there relative to Trump while still losing it?