FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio comes closest at 48/46, then Jeb 47/44.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Her favorability is 41/51. She has to do something about that or it will be lethal against a non-joke candidate.

[bedstuy]

You people are crazy. 

1.  These early individual polls don't matter.
2.  Favorability goes down in primaries among your party and then rebounds once people rally around the candidate. 

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton 47%
Bush 44%

Clinton 49%
Carson 41%

Clinton 48%
Christie 41%

Clinton 49%
Cruz 42%

Clinton 49%
Huckabee 44%

Clinton 46%
Paul 42%

Clinton 50%
Perry 42%

Clinton 48%
Rubio 46%

Clinton 49%
Walker 41%

Biden 43%
Walker 43%

Warren 42%
Walker 41%

[King]

The uptick in unfavorable is entirely from people who describe themselves as "very liberal" where she now has a 20% unfavorable rating; 14% unfavorable among Democrats. Those aren't votes for Scott Walker. Her favorability is still +15 with moderates, +8 with Independents where as Walker is -15/-11 and Cruz -28/-24 among moderate/indepedent identifiers respectably.

This is similar to 2011 when Obama had negative approval ratings but still led in the polls because about 25% of liberals disapproved of his job as President but said they would vote for him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Her favorability is 41/51. She has to do something about that or it will be lethal against a non-joke candidate.

Well, good luck in finding this non-joke candidate among this year's Republicans hopefuls.

[King]

she will probably do worse than Romney among white men, Hispanics and Blacks.

And she will do this because...

[The Other Castro]

Rubio doing better than Jeb in Florida? Maybe there's hope for him after all.

[King]

So you're just making the same losing bet the Republicans made in 2012: we'll win because blacks won't show up for some reason and Latinos will trend Republican for no reason.

It's a theory that only works if you assume the Clintons are completely helpless to drive up turnout in a campaign and can't have Obama campaign for them as well. It also assumes that the 2016 GOP nominee won't be required to make all the same damaging comments that Romney had to like self-deportation in the primary debates in order to win. Romney didn't actually believe any of that stuff. He was sane.

It's just more of the same, more of the same. GOP entitlement to win this upcoming election. The GOP is not entitled to anything. They actually will have to earn votes and they show no interest doing so yet again.

[bedstuy]

You people are crazy.  

1.  These early individual polls don't matter.
2.  Favorability goes down in primaries among your party and then rebounds once people rally around the candidate.  

Uh, the primaries haven't started, heck, Hillary hasn't even announced yet, so that argument doesn't hold true! And of course the "muh early polls don't matter" argument is true but when a poll shows Hillary leading all Republicans by at least 15 points (sometimes even in their home states), you guys are gloating about it, too The only demographic group that would carry FL for Hillary is white women. If she does as badly as Obama among this group, she will almost certainly lose FL because she will probably do worse than Romney among white men, Hispanics and Blacks.

The primary race has started because the media is talking about it.  And, great, we agree that these polls don't matter.  I don't gloat about polling more than a year and a half from an election.  You can get a general sense from the early polling, but I would never claim it matters that much in the final analysis, certainly not the crosstabs.

You mean worse than Obama among white men, Hispanics and blacks though?  I'm confused.

You need to tone down the potted election trend prediction.  When you add together all the conditional points, if this and that happens, then probably this, probably that, etc, you just have reckless speculation.  That's the problem with all this predicting, there are tons of variables and assumptions built into any given prediction.  Ultimately, maybe you're right about one variable, but wrong about three others and so who cares?

The only good single predictor of winning an election is a lead in public polling.   Not being at least at 50% favorability, not a certain unemployment number, not getting as many black votes as the last candidate, not winning independents, not getting more likes on facebook, not one person's subjective opinion about which candidate is shrill or mean or killed Vince Foster.  And, I think we all ought to know, it's better to be the one gloating about their lead in public polling than the person making excuses about why that lead will evaporate or doesn't actually exist.

[Beet]

Wow, if her numbers among minorities (Rubio getting 20% of the Black vote and almost tied among Hispanics) are true, that would be devastating news for Hillary.

That's only if Rubio is nominee. If anyone else is the nominee, they get only 13-14% of the black vote (same as G.W. Bush in 2004). However in 2004, G.W. Bush got 56% of the Hispanic vote. Florida Hispanics (followed by Texas Hispanics) have always been much more Republican than national Hispanics. Rubio isn't going to be the nominee, though.

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Yeah, I agree. If anything, this poll is an early sign that she will not be "super-duper-favorable-and-inevitable".
[/quote]

Have to agree with this... additionally, she can count on another 18 months of negative news coverage, unless she somehow "resets" with the media... which is a joke given as they haven't reset in 23 years so how they will reset now is beyond comprehension. This is the biggest reason why think she shouldn't run.

[King]

So you're just making the same losing bet the Republicans made in 2012: we'll win because blacks won't show up for some reason and Latinos will trend Republican for no reason.

I get your point, BUT if you really think that Blacks will show up for Hillary in bigger numbers than they did for Obama and that she will get a higher percentage among them, you are really naive. And it's hard for me to imagine that Hispanic voters will vote even more Democratic than in 2012 - also based on many poll numbers, btw - but we'll see. However, you are absolutely right: The GOP shouldn't rely on demographics to win the election.  

Who said that? She doesn't need bigger numbers and higher percentages. If she simply maintains, she wins and wins big. If she loses 2-3 points, she still wins. Add in she will do be markedly better with whites and she could lose 5-6 points and still win.

You still haven't stated a reason why she won't maintain. There is no reason why she would lose these people.

Again, I heard this all in 2012. "Black people aren't as enthused as 2008. I can't see Obama winning as many Latinos as in 2008."

[Devils30]

PPP tends to give candidates from both sides much lower favorables than other polls. Inconsistent with what CNN and Quinniipac have found there. The electorate will also be 64% white not 68%. 2012 was 67%. Hillary can do fine with the Hispanic vote because the GOP portion of it skews older in Florida.

[IceSpear]

LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

[Tender Branson]

LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

Hmm, I'd like to see other polls though.

Have you seen Hillary's favorable ratings ? They are -10 or something and Bush's are +2.

Don't really know if she's actually ahead with these numbers, or if it's just PPP.

[King]

LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

Hmm, I'd like to see other polls though.

Have you seen Hillary's favorable ratings ? They are -10 or something and Bush's are +2.

Don't really know if she's actually ahead with these numbers, or if it's just PPP.

23% of Democrats like Jeb where as only 7% of Republicans like Hillary. Hillary has +8 independent favorability while Jeb only has +4. That's how Jeb can be more favorable than Hillary and lose.

[Devils30]

Don't discount Hillary's experience and ability to get things done as a big reason she appeals to people more than personal favorables.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, Clinton's appeal towards Hispanics makes this the tipping point state of the election aside from CO,NV, WI, PA and NH.

[IceSpear]

LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

Hmm, I'd like to see other polls though.

Have you seen Hillary's favorable ratings ? They are -10 or something and Bush's are +2.

Don't really know if she's actually ahead with these numbers, or if it's just PPP.

So you're skeptical of PPP and want more evidence, but accept Gravis unconditionally?

[Ebsy]

So you're skeptical of PPP and want more evidence, but accept Gravis unconditionally?

It's like he doesn't even realize that PPP is probably the finest polling outfit in the country.

[Mr. Morden]

Hopefully, Clinton's appeal towards Hispanics makes this the tipping point state of the election aside from CO,NV, WI, PA and NH.

There is only ONE tipping point state in each election and I guarantee you it won't be FL in 2016.

If Bush is the GOP nominee, then you're right, it won't be.  If Walker is the nominee….it's possible.  Neither Colorado nor Virginia is a slam dunk to vote more Democratic than Florida, based on the polling we've seen so far.  Nor is Ohio, for that matter.  With Clinton as the Democratic nominee rather than Obama, I could definitely imagine a trend map that's something like the reverse of the 2008 trend map, with a bit of walkback in the recent Democratic trends in places like CO and VA, offset by Democratic trends in states like Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

So you're skeptical of PPP and want more evidence, but accept Gravis unconditionally?

It's like he doesn't even realize that PPP is probably the finest polling outfit in the country.

Let's not get crazy here.  Better than Gravis doesn't make it the "finest in the country".

[IceSpear]

So you're skeptical of PPP and want more evidence, but accept Gravis unconditionally?

It's like he doesn't even realize that PPP is probably the finest polling outfit in the country.

Let's not get crazy here.  Better than Gravis doesn't make it the "finest in the country".

If that were the case, then every pollster would be the finest in the country. Except maybe Zogby.

[Devils30]

Obama only won it by 1, she is doing better. Against Jeb or Rubio it will not be the tipping point most likely. Against Walker it can be.

[Lief 🗽]

PPP is not only not the finest polling company in the country nor better than Gravis, but it also garbage. Waiting to see what Vox Populi has to say here.