The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 11,230
|
 |
« on: March 24, 2015, 05:19:20 PM » |
|
There's a big difference between losing and not winning. The majority of non-Clinton percentage points stem from the chance that she wouldn't run in the first place (due to health, death, etc). Of the candidates that are probably running (Webb, Sanders, O'Malley), their combined total is 4% (8% if you include Biden). So according to Nate's numbers, her total odds of winning the nomination are 77%, but if she runs, her odds of winning are 92-96%.
|
