Could Hillary lose in '16, then win in '20?

[progressive85]

Is 2016 her very last chance to become President or could she lose 2016 in a closely-fought race and then come back four years later to win?  Your thoughts please....

[Matty]

Putting it simply..........No.

[IceSpear]

Putting it simply..........No.

This.

She'd probably lead (possibly by a crushing margin) in the extremely early polls simply because Democrats have nobody else, but it wouldn't happen.

[JonathanSwift]

It's possible, but not likely.

[© tweed]

any general election loser only remains viable if the defeat itself was disputed (think Gore 2000, Tilden 1876).

[JonathanSwift]

any general election loser only remains viable if the defeat itself was disputed (think Gore 2000, Tilden 1876).

What about Nixon?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

any general election loser only remains viable if the defeat itself was disputed (think Gore 2000, Tilden 1876).

What about Nixon?

Definitely disputed, although less so.

At the very least, razor-thin.

[Lincoln Republican]

Could Hillary lose in 2016?  Yes, of course she could lose in 2016.

Could she come back and win in 2020?  No, absolutely not.  For Hillary, it is 2016 or nothing.  

If she loses in 2016, when, according to this forum anyway, she was DEFINITELY going to win, no question about it, there is no way the Democrats would nominate her again.  

[Beet]

Honestly, I though 2008 was. I still remember the first clear sign that it wasn't - me and one other Obama volunteer were driving back from Norfolk when she suddenly said, "I hope Hillary runs in 2016." Of course I said stuff about I hope she does too, I'm a huge fan of hers, blah blah blah, which is all obviously true but I was surprised. After the 2008 primary I really thought she was done.

The next sign was an OFA event in D.C. in late 2012 or early 2013 I can't remember. At that the closing presentation I was sitting next to this middle aged white lawyer and for some reason we started talking about Mark Warner. I offhandedly mentioned that there were murmurs he was thinking of running for president in 2016. To my surprise (since Warner was and is very popular) he gave somewhat of a face and said he didn't think Warner was presidential caliber. Then I mentioned Martin O'Malley. He said, no. I said, why not? He said, he wanted Hillary to run. Also mentioned something about the first woman. Of course I had to agree and grinned.

Not too long after that I heard Adam Parkhomenko was starting this PAC called Ready for Hillary.

But if she loses in '16, I think she's really done.

[Mister Mets]

It seems ridiculous to assume that Hillary Clinton would be an overwhelming favorite for the Democratic party's nomination in 2016, and have no shot in 2020.

She'll still have many of her current advantages in 2020 (name recognition, appeal to Obama and Bill Clinton fans, milestone of first female President, record of experience.) The primary is likely to be more difficult, but if she were to run, she'd surely be a contender.

Of losing candidates, McCain and Dole were too old to run again, and had lost major milestones. Gore could have won 2004. Romney could have been competitive in the current cycle, and I'd still bet a dollar to get a hundred bucks if he's the party's nominee. Kerry just didn't fit what the Democratic party wanted in 2008 (a war hero provided a contrast with Bush, but the party was more excited about the milestones Hillary and Obama represented.)

[SWE]

Somehow I don't think democrats would be too keen on nominating a 73-year-old who lost two presidential campaigns they expected her to win

[IceSpear]

Somehow I don't think democrats would be too keen on nominating a 73-year-old who lost two presidential campaigns they expected her to win

She'd be Romney 2.0. Lead in a big margin in the public polls (probably by much bigger margins than Romney did), but the party actors wouldn't have it. And I doubt she'd even want to run again anyway.

[Frodo]

(...) if she loses in '16, I think she's really done.

^^^^^^^^^^^^

This. 

[Sumner 1868]

If there is any chance of this, she'll need to have won the popular vote during her 2016 defeat.

[Joe Biden 2020]

No.  Others have mentioned she will be too old to run in 2020 and that is definitely true.  I personally think she's at the upper limit of the age bracket now, but she falls barely within the acceptable range because Ronald Reagan won at age 69 and re-election at 73, although one has to wonder if Nancy Reagan and VP Bush actually ran the second term, but that's another thread.  In short, the only way Hillary wins in 2020 is by re-election.  Even then, it would be tough, doable but tough, after 12 years of Democratic control.  That's a big reason why her husband won in 1992 because the Republicans had been in control for 12 straight years.

[Suburbia]

Yes. It's possible. Anything can happen. However, I don't think that Democrats would want to nominate her again.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

any general election loser only remains viable if the defeat itself was disputed (think Gore 2000, Tilden 1876).

What about Nixon?

Nixon wasn't 74 in 1968.

[Cory]

Putting it simply..........No.

[© tweed]

any general election loser only remains viable if the defeat itself was disputed (think Gore 2000, Tilden 1876).

What about Nixon?

for one thing, that was a two-cycle gap.  I was speaking of a one-cycle gap.  it would certainly be possible to imagine, say, Scott Walker losing a close race to Hillary (50-48.5%, let's say) in 2016, continuing his "successful" career and remaining popular with the base, and remaining viable for a 2024 run.

[porky88]

I think this could happen to Jeb Bush. If he finishes No. 2 in the primaries and the nominee (Walker) loses to Hillary in the general election, then he probably positions himself as the republican frontrunner in 2020. He’d be 67 in 2020, and it would’ve been 12 years since his brother left office, so the stain of his brother’s presidency may be gone by then.

[Pyro]

2016 or bust for the ClintonTrain.
A loss in 2016 would effectively make her the Mitt Romney of 2020. End of story.

[Xing]

Not a chance. She'd only run in 2020 if she were the incumbent president.

[Angel of Death]

Getting so close twice would already be enough of a trauma for a younger candidate to call it quits. It would be like Al Gore on steroids.