538 Republican Presidential Odds: Bush, Walker, and Rubio at the top
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  538 Republican Presidential Odds: Bush, Walker, and Rubio at the top
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Author Topic: 538 Republican Presidential Odds: Bush, Walker, and Rubio at the top  (Read 4451 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: March 25, 2015, 12:31:54 AM »





I think they're a bit too optimistic with Rubio. Perry is definitely not at a 13% chance. Cruz should be a little higher.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2015, 12:37:30 AM »

Where's Kasich? If they're going to give Bobby Jindal 3%, Kasich's gotta be at like 4 or 5.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2015, 12:40:22 AM »

Here's the podcast where they discuss their reasoning:

https://soundcloud.com/fivethirtyeight/totally-subjective-presidential-odds-32015
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2015, 12:48:16 AM »

I don't get why they include Pence on the list but not Kasich.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2015, 12:49:54 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2015, 12:51:31 AM by Likely Voter »

Its worth listening to the podcast. They do discuss Kasich and Pence and say that if either showed serious interest (and especially if others ran into trouble) they could become top tier.

We are getting closer and closer to the point where it is hard to discuss people who arent doing anything (or very little) in terms of setting up campaigns.  So the bias is towards those who are clearly running.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2015, 12:58:09 AM »

Its worth listening to the podcast. They do discuss Kasich and Pence and say that if either showed serious interest (and especially if others ran into trouble) they could become top tier.

We are getting closer and closer to the point where it is hard to discuss people who arent doing anything (or very little) in terms of setting up campaigns.  So the bias is towards those who are clearly running.

Yeah, I get that. But Pence has shown no interest in running and even shut down a bill allowing him to run for president and Governor simultaneously. Meanwhile, Kasich has been open about considering a run and touring the early primary states. If you're going to include one but not the other, it should be Kasich.

Also, if they're going to include Warren on the D side then they should include Romney on the R side.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2015, 01:07:32 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2015, 01:10:17 AM by Lief 🐋 »

Ummmm why isn't Donald Trump on this list?! 538 has lost all credibility. And Nate Silver's disgusting, both inside and out. You take a look at him, he's a slob. He talks like a truck driver, he doesn't have his facts, he'll say anything that comes to his mind. His website failed when it left the New York Times, the traffic went very, very, very low and very bad, and he got essentially thrown off the internet. I mean he's basically a disaster.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2015, 01:19:59 AM »

Its worth listening to the podcast. They do discuss Kasich and Pence and say that if either showed serious interest (and especially if others ran into trouble) they could become top tier.

We are getting closer and closer to the point where it is hard to discuss people who arent doing anything (or very little) in terms of setting up campaigns.  So the bias is towards those who are clearly running.

Yeah, I get that. But Pence has shown no interest in running and even shut down a bill allowing him to run for president and Governor simultaneously. Meanwhile, Kasich has been open about considering a run and touring the early primary states. If you're going to include one but not the other, it should be Kasich.

Also, if they're going to include Warren on the D side then they should include Romney on the R side.

As I said, in the podcast they talk about Pence and Kasich, don't get caught up on the graphic. They actually note how Kasich is in a category of his own if he runs.

As for Warren, they are mixing the candidates who are likely to be running running with the 'what if Hillary didnt run?' scenario candidates (which is where Warren comes in). I think, and they hint at this, it is just more interesting than saying..."and for the Dems, Hillary wins, discussion over"
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2015, 01:25:32 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2015, 01:45:59 AM by Mr. Morden »

Yeah, I get that. But Pence has shown no interest in running and even shut down a bill allowing him to run for president and Governor simultaneously. Meanwhile, Kasich has been open about considering a run and touring the early primary states.

Pence dodges the question when he's asked if he'll run for president (unlike folks like Corker, Portman, Romney, Ryan, etc., who've explicitly ruled out running), and is scheduled to go to early caucus state Nevada next month, to suck up to Sheldon Adelson.  So I wouldn't say he's shown *no* interest.

But yeah, Kasich has shown at least somewhat more interest of late.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2015, 01:38:03 AM »

lol Rubio
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2015, 01:45:11 AM »

For the life of me, I can't even comprehend how absolutely delusional Rubio must be in order to give up his prominent Senate seat in order to make a quixotic charge at the Republican nomination that we all know he has no chance of winning. I know the presidency is alluring, but man. There must have been some good stuff in that Poland Spring water.
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Cory
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2015, 01:48:21 AM »

For the life of me, I can't even comprehend how absolutely delusional Rubio must be in order to give up his prominent Senate seat in order to make a quixotic charge at the Republican nomination that we all know he has no chance of winning. I know the presidency is alluring, but man. There must have been some good stuff in that Poland Spring water.

This. People are literally betting money that he will win. I just don't get it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2015, 01:54:12 AM »

For the life of me, I can't even comprehend how absolutely delusional Rubio must be in order to give up his prominent Senate seat in order to make a quixotic charge at the Republican nomination that we all know he has no chance of winning.

I don't think he has *no* chance of winning the nomination.  He has a much better chance than the majority of the candidates who are/will be running.

In any case, as I think I've said before, Rubio doesn't care about his Senate seat.  It's just a stepping stone to the White House for him.  And even if he doesn't win the nomination this time, if he manages to make a strong showing of it, it could set him up for another run in 2020.  Alternatively, if Walker, or some other non-Floridian white male, wins the nomination this time, and they want a Hispanic running mate, Rubio has a shot at the #2 spot on the ticket.  But that's more likely to happen if he's not in the middle of running for reelection for Senate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2015, 02:04:22 AM »

Why anyone would want to be Vice President is beyond me.
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2015, 02:07:10 AM »

Why anyone would want to be Vice President is beyond me.
Ftfy
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2015, 02:08:38 AM »

Yeah, I guess Joe Biden does get to eat a lot of vanilla ice cream.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: March 25, 2015, 02:10:08 AM »

Why anyone would want to be Vice President is beyond me.

It's supposed to be a stepping stone for president, but it hasn't actually worked out that way since 1988. Regardless of the winner in 2016, it seems the next time it will even be possible is 2024, a 36 year streak. Pretty impressive.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2015, 02:14:35 AM »

The thing is, Rubio is very young. Why can't he afford to wait one cycle and another totally ignored Republican autopsy to run?
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Blair
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« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2015, 11:43:35 AM »

Is it 2012 again? Why is Rubio doing so well?

And please, not Jindal
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2015, 11:58:48 AM »

Is it 2012 again? Why is Rubio doing so well?

And please, not Jindal
Rubio is no one's first choice for the nomination, but I have a feeling that he is a lot of people's second or third choice. He does well among polls asking if you support so and so, but not among polls where you have to pick just one candidate to support.

Also, Jindal destroyed what was left of Louisiana after Katrina and replaced it with condos. He has about as much chance as Hillary Clinton of being the Republican nominee for the presidency.
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King
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« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2015, 11:59:37 AM »

Cruz is going to destroy Jeb and make Walker into the new establishment candidate. Add Rand Paul into the mix and Rubio has no angle for a candidacy.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2015, 12:14:14 PM »

Cruz is going to destroy Jeb and make Walker into the new establishment candidate. Add Rand Paul into the mix and Rubio has no angle for a candidacy.
As a Democrat, that is too much to hope for.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2015, 12:16:15 PM »

It has been a long time since I have used the words "Marco Rubio" and "Republican nomination" in the same sentence.  The first time I used those words was in the Summer of 2012, because even though I was very partisan at the time, I had very little hope that Romney would win.  Up until early 2013 I was convinced that Rubio was going to be America's first Hispanic President.  Then about that time better candidates started showing up.
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King
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« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2015, 12:20:48 PM »

Cruz is going to destroy Jeb and make Walker into the new establishment candidate. Add Rand Paul into the mix and Rubio has no angle for a candidacy.
As a Democrat, that is too much to hope for.

Is it? Walker is the strongest candidate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2015, 12:24:28 PM »
« Edited: March 25, 2015, 12:30:04 PM by Ebsy »

Cruz is going to destroy Jeb and make Walker into the new establishment candidate. Add Rand Paul into the mix and Rubio has no angle for a candidacy.
As a Democrat, that is too much to hope for.

Is it? Walker is the strongest candidate.
What's he going to run on? His record of bankrupting Wisconsin?

He might be the strongest candidate from this moment, but his rise in the polls looks like an early peak to me.
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