Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26
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Author Topic: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26  (Read 28143 times)
Gass3268
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« on: March 25, 2015, 04:54:41 PM »

Very exciting!

Any predictions?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2015, 09:35:57 PM »


Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2015, 09:48:39 PM »

In St. Louis, we're waiting to see if the City finally stops declining in population. We'll probably lose a thousand more people.
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CountyTy90
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2015, 09:56:40 PM »

Waiting to see when Mecklenburg and Wake counties in North Carolina pass over a million.
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2015, 06:55:16 AM »

Here's the press release from the Census Bureau. The complete set of files aren't up yet.
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ill ind
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2015, 10:17:09 AM »


  The files are up as of now.

Ill_ind
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2015, 10:22:28 AM »

Where exactly on the Census website are they?
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ill ind
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2015, 12:28:12 PM »

Ebsy

  Here you go:

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/index.html

Ill Ind
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2015, 01:00:43 PM »

Waiting to see when Mecklenburg and Wake counties in North Carolina pass over a million.

Mecklenburg passed a million, but Wake will have to wait until next year. Still, both counties have added about 100,000 people in just 5 years!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2015, 01:04:12 PM »

In St. Louis, we're waiting to see if the City finally stops declining in population. We'll probably lose a thousand more people.

St. Louis City lost 77 people from last year and 1,946 since 2010.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2015, 01:05:02 PM »


Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.

It's still towards the top. Have things slowed down since July?
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2015, 01:12:31 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 01:14:35 PM by traininthedistance »

Good to see that Philly's continued growth continues apace.  Another 4K last year! Sadly not enough to keep up with the nationwide rate- but they accounted for over half of Pennsylvania's growth.
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2015, 01:55:41 PM »


Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.

It's still towards the top. Have things slowed down since July?

In theory, yes.  Williams County, North Dakota is in the heart of the Bakken shale oil deposits.  With oil prices under $50 a barrel, there should be less drilling, and therefore, less need for workers, which should at least slow growth there, if not reverse it.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2015, 02:19:54 PM »

In St. Louis, we're waiting to see if the City finally stops declining in population. We'll probably lose a thousand more people.

St. Louis City lost 77 people from last year and 1,946 since 2010.
The City lost 1,077 people according to the data I saw.
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2015, 02:32:56 PM »

Census' press release has been relocated here

The fastest-growing Metropolitan Area since 2013 was The Villages, Florida, which grew by 5.4%.  Myrtle Beach, SC-NC was next, at 3.2%, followed by Austin, TX (+3.0%), Odessa, TX (+2.9%) and St. George in Utah's Dixie (+2.9%).  Three of the top 5 are probably characterized as retirement areas, with one state capital and one oil area.  Like Williams County, ND, it will be interesting to see if Odessa, TX grows next year as oil prices have gone bust.
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Seattle
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« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2015, 04:23:18 PM »

Looks like King County saw an increase of 33,000 putting it at about 2,080,000 inhabitants. At least half that growth is probably from the city of the Seattle, so I imagine Seattle's estimate will be around 667,000. When are the city estimates due?
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2015, 04:54:55 PM »


May.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2015, 05:00:00 PM »

Looks like King County saw an increase of 33,000 putting it at about 2,080,000 inhabitants. At least half that growth is probably from the city of the Seattle, so I imagine Seattle's estimate will be around 667,000. When are the city estimates due?

City and town estimates are due in May.

Keep in mind that the city and town estimates just distribute county population based on housing unit construction; they don't have data on births and deaths at the subcounty level. So they should be taken with more caution.
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2015, 05:09:58 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 05:23:47 PM by Miles »

Less growth than I would have liked in Louisiana. Orleans Parish has been growing steadily, but is still 70K people (15%) under pre-Katrina status.  

Also, Jefferson Parish's population has remained remarkably consistent for the past few years.

Overall, same story as previous years: rural areas staying the same or losing, and most of the growth is concentrated along the I-12 stretch.  

% Change from 2005 to 2014:

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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2015, 06:54:15 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 06:59:43 PM by Miles »

% Change from the Census to July 2014:



'Trend' from 2010 to 2014: (the national change was +3.27%)



I was having issues with a few Alaska boroughs (which I might go back and look at), but it otherwise should check out.
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ag
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2015, 07:45:35 PM »

Interestingly, the entire population growth in NY is downstate. Since 2010 the state grew by 368,115 of which 368,179 is downstate (NYC, Long Island and Westchester - about 380 thousand if you include Rockland). The rest of the state actually lost a grand total of 64 residents Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2015, 08:00:37 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 08:25:00 PM by cinyc »

Here's the top 10 fastest-growing counties by percentage increase from 2013 to 2014 in counties with an estimated population of 10,000 or more as of July 1, 2014, the principal city/region and likely reason for the increase:

1) McKenzie, ND +18.3% (Watford City; Oil) - over 10,000 for the first time and not included on Census' lists
2) Williams, ND +8.7% (Williston; Oil)
3) Stark, ND +7.0% (Dickinson; Oil)
4) Sumter, FL +5.4% (The Villages; Retirement community)
5) Pickens, AL +5.1% (Carrolton/Aliceville; New jail)
6) Hays, TX +4.8% (San Marcos; Austin sprawl in northern part of the county)
7) Fort Bend, TX +4.7% (Sugar Land/Rosenberg; Houston sprawl in Sugar Land area)
8) Forsyth, GA +4.6% (Cumming; Atlanta sprawl)
9) Wasatch, UT +4.3% (Heber City; Exurban Provo)
10) Comal, TX +4.0% (New Braunfels; San Antonio sprawl in southern part of the county)

And the bottom 5:
1) Chattahoochee, GA -4.2% (Cussetta/Fort Benning; Perhaps a correction of a big bump in 2012 or military build down)
2) Hale, TX -3.0% (Plainview; Rural, in between Lubbock and Amarillo, but not close enough to either for sprawl)
3) Colfax, NM -2.9% (Raton; Rural Northern New Mexico)
4) Las Animas, CO -2.7% (Trinidad; Rural SE Colorado, directly north of Colfax, NM)
5) Phillips, AR -2.4% (Helena; Rural Mississippi Delta)
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2015, 08:22:48 PM »

Interestingly, the entire population growth in NY is downstate. Since 2010 the state grew by 368,115 of which 368,179 is downstate (NYC, Long Island and Westchester - about 380 thousand if you include Rockland). The rest of the state actually lost a grand total of 64 residents Smiley

The core NYC metro counties are growing faster than the NYC exurbs in the CSA.  Bronx, Queens and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties picked up the most people, while Rockland grew fastest.  Nassau, Westchester, New York (Manhattan) and Orange grew slightly faster than the rest of the state, while Richmond (Staten Island) grew slower than the rest of the state, Suffolk was flat and Putnam, Dutchess and Ulster lost population. 

Similar patterns can be seen most of the more far-flung areas of the New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania parts of the CSA, with far-flung exurban Sussex and Hunterdon Counties, NJ losing population, along with Monroe, Pike and Carbon Counties, PA and New Haven and Litchfield Counties, CT.  Ocean County, NJ bucked the trend, likely due to its Orthodox Jewish and retirement communities, as did the two Allentown-area counties.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2015, 08:40:02 PM »


Why are Illinois and New Mexico losing people? Huh Especially Illinois? I know growth slowed, but with immigration it should be growing?
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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2015, 09:17:49 PM »


Why are Illinois and New Mexico losing people? Huh Especially Illinois? I know growth slowed, but with immigration it should be growing?

Net outmigration to other states from 7/13 to 6/14 in IL was almost 100K. Births and foreign immigration kept it closer. The recession was pinning many in their homes, and with its end people are going to where better jobs are. In many ways this data illustrates the reason for the  vote for Gov in 2014 to change the direction of the state.
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