Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26

[Torie]

I don't understand how your COI concept (beyond the factors we already use) helps to buttress that race is not a predominate factor making it illegal under the VRA. I don't think putting together contiguous black areas beyond packing would ever be deemed an illegal race line drawing anyway. Putting aside using it for purposes of determining contiguity, then one might ask that aside from VRA concerns, if you are using the minority COI concept, why then not for other COI groupings?

So unless I am missing something (which is possible), we will just have to disagree on this one. I guess the practical effect is that you would draw a non Section 2 required sub 50% BVAP minority district that violates our rules if your MCC concept were not in play, and I would not. You still have not told me the BVAP % of your black belt CD in that regard.

[muon2]

As you know and I think concur CoI tends to be the squishiest of metrics for redistricting. However, it's clear to me that the public likes the concept. To the extent that I could quantify other groups that share a CoI, span counties, and are likely to have sufficient population to influence elections, I would do so. I've never thought that urban areas have a unique claim in that regard.

Projecting a BVAP percentage is quite a bit more difficult than projecting the population of a county. The Census doesn't estimate it and I have to use rolling 3-year or 5-year averages from the ACS to make a projection. That's why I only described the BVAP as being in the low 40s, upper 40s or over 50%. A more precise number awaits some more vacation time. Perhaps later this summer.

[Torie]

"That's why I only described the BVAP as being in the low 40s, upper 40s or over 50%."

Where did you do that above? I can't find it in a senior moment. The upper 40's is the most interesting for VRA purposes, where I am not sure it is entirely clear whether such a district must be drawn (assuming it's enough to elect a candidate of the minority's choice).  We know that's a floor where a higher percentage BVAP CD can be drawn, but I am not sure that we know any more than that.

[muon2]

"That's why I only described the BVAP as being in the low 40s, upper 40s or over 50%."

Where did you do that above? I can't find it in a senior moment. The upper 40's is the most interesting for VRA purposes, where I am not sure it is entirely clear whether such a district must be drawn (assuming it's enough to elect a candidate of the minority's choice).  We know that's a floor where a higher percentage BVAP CD can be drawn, but I am not sure that we know any more than that.

I wasn't able to get one in the upper 40's for 2020. My whole county plan is described in the text as just over 40%, and I described the plan with the Birmingham connection as over 50%.

The MCC minus Barbour on the extreme east has a 2010 population of 473K and a 2010 BVAP of 55.7%. The quota for a CD was 683K so an extra 210K was needed from other counties. For example jimrtex which took the MCC, completed the Montgomery UCC then added Monroe, Pickens, and Pike to the to within 1K of the quota and have a 46.4% BVAP.

My projection for those MCC counties in 2020 is 439K, a loss of 34K. The target quota for a 7 CD plan is 708K which is an increase of 25K. The net is that instead of adding 210K more, in 2020 the MCC has to add 269K more. If whole counties are used that will pull that number down from its 2010 level. Using Tuscaloosa as a whole county and chopping the Montgomery UCC might bring it close to 45%. Even then the 2008 Pres result on DRA was only D+1.

[Torie]

I drew these VA maps for 2022 based on projected population figures, not so much to maximize Muon2’s scoring scheme (although the more non partisan map I think it would score reasonably well assuming that drawing two black CD’s is a constraint, which as a practical matter it probably is), but rather as an exercise in how much mileage the Pubs could get out of a Pub gerrymander next time. The answer is not much it seems. I got going on this, because Krazen on RRH suggested this devilish Pub gerrymander scheme that involved a CD snaking from Richmond into the Democratic towns in Prince William County (which makes the map hideously butt ugly, and would enrage just about everyone I suspect (including depriving the blacks of a second seat). It is really not necessary as it turns out to go there, for the Pubs to accomplish neutralizing a bunch of Dem precincts in Prince William. What works better is utilizing the old fashioned gerrymander technique of population transference from CD to CD. You just squeeze the estuary tidewater CD (VA-01) so that it juts into Prince William County. VA-01 is squeezed by the “black wall” of the two southside VA black CD’s, so it needs to go to the gates of Prince William in all events, if not necessarily much into the county itself (unless squeezed).  Below is the Pub gerrymander map for 2022 based on population projections:



Interesting, there appears to be only one CD in play via going the gerrymander route, as opposed to more of a good government map per the below. The map below is still somewhat of a Pub gerrymander, because the precincts in Fairfax were carefully selected, so long as it did not make the map too ugly (the flexibility was just where to put the VA-12 box in Fairfax County). But it does not make more than a point difference either way more or less. It also entails a score losing quad chop of Fairfax. Anyway, in the map below, VA-08 moves from about a 2% Pub PVI using 2012 numbers (you have to use 2012 numbers for Prince William, since it is trending Dem rather pronouncedly), to about a 2.5% Dem PVI. VA-10 is about a 3.5% Pub PVI. One bonus of the play of geography for the Pubs is that VRA concerns afford a justification for VA-03 to “vacuum up” all the black precincts in the Norfolk area hood (with an extra county chop), leaving the white precincts for VA-02, so its Pub PVI bounces up to about a 4.5% Pub PVI.

So all the sound of fury of gerrymandering in VA for 2022 is worth perhaps about three quarters of a CD (moving VA-08 from lean Dem to lean Pub), based on current population trends and voting habits. Sometimes gerrymanders are worth 2-4 CD’s, and sometimes they are worth just one CD at best.

 

And here is a version which will get a better Muon2 score, moving VA-08 into close to safe Dem territory at about a 4.5% Dem PVI (using 2012 numbers), and VA-10 from fairly safe Pub to quite safe Pub (3.5% Pub PVI to around 5% Pub PVI).  So this “good government” map locks in the delegation at 7 Pubs to 5 Dems. Thus the Pub gerrymander nets it one seat, while moving VA-10 into a slightly more marginal status as the cost of doing so. By 2020 if trends hold, it may be necessary for the Pubs to draw the map this way anyway, to keep its hold on VA-10. In that event, a Pub gerrymander would turn into a dummymander.

[Torie]

Bonus question. Based on the maps above, which CD do you think has had post the 2010 census the most robust population gain, based on the census estimates as of July 1, 2014?  How about the second most? Which CD has had the most stagnant population growth?

[Skill and Chance]

Bonus question. Based on the maps above, which CD do you think has had post the 2010 census the most robust population gain, based on the census estimates as of July 1, 2014?  How about the second most? Which CD has had the most stagnant population growth?

Most growth: VA-10
2nd most: close call between VA-07 the various versions of VA-08 here?
Most stagnant: Has to be VA-09, right?

The most interesting scenario may be if VA-12 doesn't happen.  VA-10 and VA-11 would have to majorly contract.  Ironically, any court remap that created a 2nd safe Dem majority-minority CD in the SE would make 2022 a lot easier for a GOP trifecta in an 11 district world.  8R-3D would probably be impossible then, unless Rigell and Comstock are willing to take their chances in EVEN to D+low seats (note there is a significant Reverse Blue Dog phenomenon in suburban 2X Obama legislative districts, including even some Republicans holding 60% Obama seats).  But a preexisting 7R/4D map with all of the SE Dem areas accounted for would mean a lot more wiggle room to pull 7 and 1 further into NOVA and Comstock further out.

[Torie]

Bonus question. Based on the maps above, which CD do you think has had post the 2010 census the most robust population gain, based on the census estimates as of July 1, 2014?  How about the second most? Which CD has had the most stagnant population growth?

Most growth: VA-10
2nd most: close call between VA-07 the various versions of VA-08 here?
Most stagnant: Has to be VA-09, right?

The most interesting scenario may be if VA-12 doesn't happen.  VA-10 and VA-11 would have to majorly contract.  Ironically, any court remap that created a 2nd safe Dem majority-minority CD in the SE would make 2022 a lot easier for a GOP trifecta in an 11 district world.  8R-3D would probably be impossible then, unless Rigell and Comstock are willing to take their chances in EVEN to D+low seats (note there is a significant Reverse Blue Dog phenomenon in suburban 2X Obama legislative districts, including even some Republicans holding 60% Obama seats).  But a preexisting 7R/4D map with all of the SE Dem areas accounted for would mean a lot more wiggle room to pull 7 and 1 further into NOVA and Comstock further out.

Good guesses, but you knew, no, when I asked for the second most dynamic growth CD, that it was a trick question, right? The second highest growth rate CD, is none other than that Pub nightmare CD, the almost inner city CD, VA-11. Alexandria and Arlington both had around a 25% growth rate, while Fairfax has had only an 8% or so growth rate. The figures below are for my third good government map (I found some population errors, so I replaced the first and third maps, and the second map, which I will not bother to redraw, is off a bit):




VA is almost certainly going to get a 12th CD unless its population growth comes close to stopping dead in its tracks. It already was close to getting a 12th CD last time.

Interestingly, Gillespie I think came close to carrying VA-08 as drawn in the good government map. He ran really, really well, in Prince William County, and quite well in Fairfax. He probably carried the Fairfax County portion of the CD by maybe 3 points, while losing Prince William by about the same margin (while Romney lost Prince William by 16 points). Since Prince William is a higher percentage of the CD, he lost it, but just by a hair. Where Gillespie lost was in the Richmond suburbs, not in NOVA. In the Richmond area,  he didn't make much progress from the Romney percentages. So in an off year election, with the seat open, the Pubs just might have a chance with the right candidate (and 2022 will be an off year election). Of course, that assumes Prince William ceases to trend Dem - which is a big assumption. Addendum:  well it turns out Gillespie lost the Fairfax portion of the CD 51-49 (21,278 Gillespie, 22,098 Warner), so it's basically a 51-49 Dem CD at least for that election. Odd Gillespie did so well in Prince William. Maybe he's from there.

[traininthedistance]

And here is a version which will get a better Muon2 score, moving VA-08 into close to safe Dem territory at about a 4.5% Dem PVI (using 2012 numbers), and VA-10 from fairly safe Pub to quite safe Pub (3.5% Pub PVI to around 5% Pub PVI).  So this “good government” map locks in the delegation at 7 Pubs to 5 Dems. Thus the Pub gerrymander nets it one seat, while moving VA-10 into a slightly more marginal status as the cost of doing so. By 2020 if trends hold, it may be necessary for the Pubs to draw the map this way anyway, to keep its hold on VA-10. In that event, a Pub gerrymander would turn into a dummymander.

This last map certainly seems like the best option of those three, and gets the "pleasing non-elongated shapes" metric down well.  It's not bad.  Couple small GooGoo tweaks I wonder about:

a) giving the Eastern Shore to VA-2 instead, since it only has road connections to VA Beach, and/or
b) splitting 6 and 10 such that they don't cross the Shenandoahs.  

The first tweak would be pretty neutral or maybe even help the Pubs by putting VA-2 further out of reach (I assume 1 and 3 would shift south, with 1 taking Williamsburg and 3 taking more of VA Beach/Chesapeake); the second would make an additional competitive district (the Loudon/Charlottesville one of course).

[Torie]

a) giving the Eastern Shore to VA-2 instead, since it only has road connections to VA Beach, and/or

You need to do it the way I did to get the black percentage up in  VA-03 and VA-4. VA-02 needs to stay south of the bridge to suck up all the heavily white precincts down there, to keep them out of the two black CD's.  I suspect this approach will unite the Pubs and blacks in the next redistricting round.

b) splitting 6 and 10 such that they don't cross the Shenandoahs.  

That sounds like a community of interest comment of some sort. I just go with compactness myself, and within erosty constraints go with county collections that minimize chops. It just so happens that collection of counties for VA-10 just about avoids a chop. Also, the counties directly south of VA-10 east of the mountains are low population, so the CD would creep considerably farther south.


Anyway, it is one state where a good government map also makes pretty good political sense for both parties. That is what I found interesting about the exercise.

[jimrtex]

a) giving the Eastern Shore to VA-2 instead, since it only has road connections to VA Beach, and/or

You need to do it the way I did to get the black percentage up in  VA-03 and VA-4. VA-02 needs to stay south of the bridge to suck up all the heavily white precincts down there, to keep them out of the two black CD's.  I suspect this approach will unite the Pubs and blacks in the next redistricting round.

VA-1 has historically crossed the Chesapeake. It is a modernist viewpoint that there is not a community of interest. Williamsburg is still living in the 18th Century. Cornwallis surrendered because the French fleet denied him access to the bay, not because the Chesapeake was not a viable transportation link.

[Torie]

As part of my ongoing project of just how much gerrymandering is worth come 2022, as opposed to “good government” maps, we move on to PA. Below is first the good government map (most of the CD’s are exact projections, but not PA-03, 9, 10 and 17, which are not sensitive to partisan machinations).  PA-05, a Pub CD in north central PA, bites the dust, and by virtue of that elimination, what we find, is that assuming the Pubs abandon the insane enterprise of keeping PA-07 in the Pub column via erosity and chops run wild, we find that a Pub gerrymander is worth may 1/3 of a CD. Why? 

Well, part of it, is that Philly burbs (not so much with Delaware County), along with the Lehigh Valley, trended so hard Pub in 2012.  So in the good government map, PA-06 is 1% Dem PVI, but that CD as drawn trended about 5 points to the Pubs in 2012, so based on 2012 numbers, it’s 4% Pub PVI. The other CD in play, PA-15, is about 3% Dem PVI in 2008, but it trended about 2.75 points Pub, so it’s now about 0.25% Dem PVI – in other words, dead even, and easy for Dent to hold as long as he wants to remain in office.  True, he might not be around in 2022.

The second map is the Pub gerrymander – which is all about PA-15, and moves it about 2 points in the Pub direction. So in the gerrymander “lite” map, it’s tilt Pub rather than dead even – say worth a third seat seat max – one half a seat if the Pubs want to go ugly, and have the trifecta.

With respect to PA, this is not a wholly academic exercise. Governor Wolf is more likely to get reelected in 2018, and thus either there is a bipartisan deal, or it goes to the courts. Go Wolf. There is no reason other than insane partisan greed, to gerrymander PA come 2022, with some hideous map. The point of this exercise, is if, over the Fruited Plain as a whole, gerrymandering and ugly maps does net much, why go there?  Why?

[Sol]

Have the new population stats been loaded into DRA?

[Torie]

Have the new population stats been loaded into DRA?

No, one needs to take the 7-1-14 census population estimates, extrapolate them thought to 4-1-2010 based on the annualized percentage change, and use the new county population numbers, and prorate for chopped counties. Using a spreadsheet, one can move county numbers from CD to CD, until the map "works" population wise, or gets close, without undue erosty, and then do the chops. At least that is the way I do it.

[Sol]

Have the new population stats been loaded into DRA?

No, one needs to take the 7-1-14 census population estimates, extrapolate them thought to 4-1-2010 based on the annualized percentage change, and use the new county population numbers, and prorate for chopped counties. Using a spreadsheet, one can move county numbers from CD to CD, until the map "works" population wise, or gets close, without undue erosty, and then do the chops. At least that is the way I do it.

Yurggh, sounds boring. I hate redistricting using a spreadsheet; it takes all the fun out of it.

[muon2]

I have taken the 7/1/2014 estimates in a spreadsheet and extrapolated them by county to 4/1/2020 assuming a uniform growth rate since 4/1/2010. I also want to preserve whole counties and keep UCCs covered with the minimum number of CDs. I'm not wild about the Chesapeake crossing, but at least there's a ferry connection, even if it's only in the summer. Without the peninsula split, I would have to introduce some chops in Hampton Roads.

This is what I get for a 12 CD VA:



Except for NoVa all CDs are whole county and within 1% of the quota. Richmond obeys both the cover and pack for its UCC. Norfolk and NoVa have the minimum cover. CDs 3 and 4 have 33% and 41% BVAP respectively.



The only chops beyond the 1% here are in NoVa. There is projected to be about 216K moved from Fairfax to CD 10 and the rest is split. With this split the political breakdown is 3R, 1r, 2e, 2d, 4D so the SKEW is D+2 and the POLARIZATION is 17.

[Torie]

My map tried to max the BVAP's, and they were at 41.5% and 45.5%. It's not legally mandated, but it is probably what will be done politically. I was unable to avoid a chop for VA-09, but maybe my figures are still off some. There are a lot of counties to count down there.

[muon2]

My map tried to max the BVAP's, and they were at 41.5% and 45.5%. It's not legally mandated, but it is probably what will be done politically. I was unable to avoid a chop for VA-09, but maybe my figures are still off some. There are a lot of counties to count down there.

I guess I'd be a little concerned that the chops into both VB and Portsmouth look like race-based swaps at the expense of split counties/ICs.

Perhaps you haven't given as much growth to Roanoke and Blacksburg as I project in CD 9. I have Roanoke county (+Roanoke and Salem) at 224.9K and Montgomery (+Radford) at 120.7K. Together with Pulaski they are over half the CD. In any case I expect that these estimates will shift over the next half decade.

[Torie]

My map tried to max the BVAP's, and they were at 41.5% and 45.5%. It's not legally mandated, but it is probably what will be done politically. I was unable to avoid a chop for VA-09, but maybe my figures are still off some. There are a lot of counties to count down there.

I guess I'd be a little concerned that the chops into both VB and Portsmouth look like race-based swaps at the expense of split counties/ICs.

Perhaps you haven't given as much growth to Roanoke and Blacksburg as I project in CD 9. I have Roanoke county (+Roanoke and Salem) at 224.9K and Montgomery (+Radford) at 120.7K. Together with Pulaski they are over half the CD. In any case I expect that these estimates will shift over the next half decade.

My map is a race based gerrymander. It's legal, because there is no packing. Your map will at once enrage both the Pub and the black community I strongly suspect.

My figures are 120.4 and 223.6.  I just take the current population growth percentage, take it to the power of 1/4.333 to get the annualized percentage, and then take that annualized percentage to the 10th power. It may be that whatever you did gets one to systematically higher numbers. For your Prince William plus Stafford plus Fredericksburg CD, I ended up however with 8K too many people. My population per CD is 731,024.

I don't like the erosity of your grey CD, but then we do have different philosophies about that. I am willing to chop when the erosity gets to be too much, absent a darn good reason to do otherwise. But then you already know all of this all too well about me!

Anyway, these maps are more about how legislatures interested in good government maps due to political power splits, or courts, will draw the lines, as opposed to following your unique rules (and up to a point mine). (In regard, the Jimtex definition of metro areas is totally unique, and I don't think most folks would view Stafford and Spotsylvania as part of the DC metro area.) Among other things, I suspect courts are more interested in "art" than you are.

[muon2]

My map is a race based gerrymander. It's legal, because there is no packing.

I'm not sure I buy this statement. All race-based gerrymandering is illegal if it can be shown to be the predominant reason used to draw the district. It is a strict scrutiny test and race can only be used to advance a compelling state interest. Often the VRA provides that compelling interest, but not here. How do you justify it here, and is your plan narrowly tailored to meet your goal?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm sure it would, but I'll be happy to use this as a counter-example to those who claim a plan drawn primarily to keep whole units of government will invariably favor the Pubs.

[muon2]

I don't like the erosity of your grey CD, but then we do have different philosophies about that. I am willing to chop when the erosity gets to be too much, absent a darn good reason to do otherwise. But then you already know all of this all too well about me!

Anyway, these maps are more about how legislatures interested in good government maps due to political power splits, or courts, will draw the lines, as opposed to following your unique rules (and up to a point mine). (In regard, the Jimtex definition of metro areas is totally unique, and I don't think most folks would view Stafford and Spotsylvania as part of the DC metro area.) Among other things, I suspect courts are more interested in "art" than you are.

Your art has always differed from mine. For example I find that your NW peninsula out of CD 5 and jut and chops around Richmond to add far more erosity than the clean L-shape of my CD 7. I do hope you are not abandoning the idea of measurable metrics to judge maps.

edit: The Census agrees with jimrtex that Fredricksburg and the two adjacent counties are part of the DC metro.

edit2: I think I found the math discrepancy. First the April to July shift is 0.25 of a year. Then the formula to get the annual rate is (estimate/census)^(1/4.25) - 1. The projection is census*(rate + 1)^10. I also had to correct for the fact that Bedford city was separate from the county in 2010, but they are together for the county estimate.

[Torie]

Oh, that jut out as you call it is small beer. I did have trouble with the lines between VA-09 and VA-05 I admit. Anyway, do you like the version below better? It causes VA-06 to lose its more box like shape, but whatever. It does stop VA-05 from being inserted between VA-09 and VA-06, which is a point loser under your system I understand.

[muon2]

My eye tells me that this new version of 6 wouldn't be much worse than the old one for many conventional versions of compactness, and is probably about the same on the muon erosity scale. Since the new version reduces the erosity of 5 (and improves its compactness) it would be preferred by any system IMO. My guess is that it might get better still by rotating populations in Nelson, Louisa and Nottaway.

[Torie]

My eye tells me that this new version of 6 wouldn't be much worse than the old one for many conventional versions of compactness, and is probably about the same on the muon erosity scale. Since the new version reduces the erosity of 5 (and improves its compactness) it would be preferred by any system IMO. My guess is that it might get better still by rotating populations in Nelson, Louisa and Nottaway.

You are probably right. One map change leads to another. The only problem with your suggestion, is that Fluvanna gets boxed in on three sides by other CD's, which is a feature that I dislike quite a bit. Granted, Nottoway has the same problem, but its shape makes it look a bit more aesthetic that doing a box in of Fluvanna to my artistic eye.

[Torie]

After a lot more work, here are my two options for Virginia, with the correct population projections – at last.  I was reminded – painfully so – that for the ideal CD population, you cannot just take the statewide projected population, and divide by the number of CD’s. Rather you need to sum the counties’ projected populations, and divide by the number of CD’s, because as counties grow at different rates, the overall statewide projection will change a bit, and tend to be a bit higher, as faster growing counties become a higher percentage of the population as of July 1, 2014, than they were as of April 1, 2010.  Or something like that.

With the 2k or so higher population number per CD, it turns out that the population of VA-10 is almost perfect with no chops. It’s about 850 people too low in population.

And the first map also loses a second chop, where without a second chop, VA-02, 03, 04 and 07 collectively have almost a perfect population, collectively off by only 13 people (12.76 to be exact based on the population projections).  The lines of the second map incurs the cost of not taking advantage of this most fortuitous accident of a near perfect population count for the above referenced four CD's. However, the additional chop is a most aesthetic one of Louisa County, and while it generates a bit more erosity by moving Nottoway into VA-04, it has the virtue of moving the black percentage of VA-04 up by 60 basis points from 41.5% to 41.1% BVAP, which would please the black political establishment in VA.

VA-03 is 41.5% BVAP, which is probably enough to elect a black in the Dem primary, but it is cutting it a tad close since VA has open primaries, unlike Florida, where they are closed, with only party registrants eligible to vote in Dem primaries.  VA-03’s lines however look just so beautiful, and it’s compact, so I elected to go with the lower black population percentage. My thinking was the same when I gave up the chop of Chesterfield, which lowers the black population percentage of VA-04 by about 3 or 4 points, depending on which of the two maps one chooses.

Everything is a balancing test, including in the case of these maps, giving the finger to Muon2’s cover and pack rules for the DC metro area.   In that regard, I might note however, that the DC MSA includes Clarke and Warren Counties, even if Jimtex’s metric does not, so in his map if one chooses to hew to the official definition, VA-01 will need to chop into Stafford County, losing his microchop that is hidden along the Stafford-Spotslyvania County line.

Oh, in looking at the MSA's, I see Muon2's has a cover penalty for the Richmond MSA (using the standard definition), which it so happens I do not in my first map. So my first map loses two chops (assuming you don't count micro-micro chops), and a cover penalty, for three extra points, while incurring a 2 point penalty for my cover and pack penalty for the DC metro area. Thus, assuming Muon2 has VA-10 take in Warren and Clarke Counties, I still win by one point on the chops. He needs Jimtex's rules to win on the chops (presumably the Jimtex metric loses the counties that get Mon2's map into cover trouble). Screw Jimtex!

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