Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26

[cinyc]

Any predictions?

Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.

[cinyc]

Any predictions?

Since we're getting mid- and not end-2014 county estimates, Williams County, North Dakota (Williston) will be one of the fastest-growing counties again... for now.  It will be more interesting to see how much the population growth slows or declines by next year's estimates.

It's still towards the top. Have things slowed down since July?

In theory, yes.  Williams County, North Dakota is in the heart of the Bakken shale oil deposits.  With oil prices under $50 a barrel, there should be less drilling, and therefore, less need for workers, which should at least slow growth there, if not reverse it.

[cinyc]

Census' press release has been relocated here. 

The fastest-growing Metropolitan Area since 2013 was The Villages, Florida, which grew by 5.4%.  Myrtle Beach, SC-NC was next, at 3.2%, followed by Austin, TX (+3.0%), Odessa, TX (+2.9%) and St. George in Utah's Dixie (+2.9%).  Three of the top 5 are probably characterized as retirement areas, with one state capital and one oil area.  Like Williams County, ND, it will be interesting to see if Odessa, TX grows next year as oil prices have gone bust.

[cinyc]

When are the city estimates due?

May.

[cinyc]

Here's the top 10 fastest-growing counties by percentage increase from 2013 to 2014 in counties with an estimated population of 10,000 or more as of July 1, 2014, the principal city/region and likely reason for the increase:

1) McKenzie, ND +18.3% (Watford City; Oil) - over 10,000 for the first time and not included on Census' lists
2) Williams, ND +8.7% (Williston; Oil)
3) Stark, ND +7.0% (Dickinson; Oil)
4) Sumter, FL +5.4% (The Villages; Retirement community)
5) Pickens, AL +5.1% (Carrolton/Aliceville; New jail)
6) Hays, TX +4.8% (San Marcos; Austin sprawl in northern part of the county)
7) Fort Bend, TX +4.7% (Sugar Land/Rosenberg; Houston sprawl in Sugar Land area)
8) Forsyth, GA +4.6% (Cumming; Atlanta sprawl)
9) Wasatch, UT +4.3% (Heber City; Exurban Provo)
10) Comal, TX +4.0% (New Braunfels; San Antonio sprawl in southern part of the county)

And the bottom 5:
1) Chattahoochee, GA -4.2% (Cussetta/Fort Benning; Perhaps a correction of a big bump in 2012 or military build down)
2) Hale, TX -3.0% (Plainview; Rural, in between Lubbock and Amarillo, but not close enough to either for sprawl)
3) Colfax, NM -2.9% (Raton; Rural Northern New Mexico)
4) Las Animas, CO -2.7% (Trinidad; Rural SE Colorado, directly north of Colfax, NM)
5) Phillips, AR -2.4% (Helena; Rural Mississippi Delta)

[cinyc]

Interestingly, the entire population growth in NY is downstate. Since 2010 the state grew by 368,115 of which 368,179 is downstate (NYC, Long Island and Westchester - about 380 thousand if you include Rockland). The rest of the state actually lost a grand total of 64 residents

The core NYC metro counties are growing faster than the NYC exurbs in the CSA.  Bronx, Queens and Kings (Brooklyn) Counties picked up the most people, while Rockland grew fastest.  Nassau, Westchester, New York (Manhattan) and Orange grew slightly faster than the rest of the state, while Richmond (Staten Island) grew slower than the rest of the state, Suffolk was flat and Putnam, Dutchess and Ulster lost population. 

Similar patterns can be seen most of the more far-flung areas of the New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania parts of the CSA, with far-flung exurban Sussex and Hunterdon Counties, NJ losing population, along with Monroe, Pike and Carbon Counties, PA and New Haven and Litchfield Counties, CT.  Ocean County, NJ bucked the trend, likely due to its Orthodox Jewish and retirement communities, as did the two Allentown-area counties.

[cinyc]

Why are Illinois and New Mexico losing people? Especially Illinois? I know growth slowed, but with immigration it should be growing?

There is about three times more domestic outmigration (-95,000)  from Illinois as foreign immigration (32,000), and the natural birth/death increase (54,000) doesn't make up the gap.  In other words, three times more U.S. residents are leaving than foreigners coming in, and there are not enough new babies to make up the gap.  People are moving from high-tax, high-cost, cold states like Illinois to the Sun Belt.

Illinois would be in an even worse position without the Chicagoland collar counties (i.e. suburbs and exurbs).  Cook County itself (Chicago) lost 179 residents.

New Mexico hasn't typically been a fast-growing state.  It is too cold to be truly sunbelt, and its main city isn't a regional hub like Denver.  Residents are moving out (-14,200), while very few foreigners are moving in (2,700), and net births/deaths (10,000) don't fully make up the difference.   What little growth there is has been largely due to oil workers in the counties around Carlsbad in the Southeast, and slow growth in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe corridor.