Proposition 8 Today

[Mr. Illini]

What would a Prop 8 map look like today?

Here's the original one: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2008&f=0&off=67&elect=0

I think it is clear that LA county would be first to flip.

Other counties that would likely flip:

Nevada
Ventura
San Luis
Sacramento
Solano
San Diego

Thoughts on whether Orange County would flip?

In terms of margins, I think you'd see notably stronger "No" in San Mateo and Alameda Counties. San Francisco would probably be up at 85% at this point.

So something like this:

[Mr. Smith]

Trinity's a fairly libertarian place, that'd flip

Imperial probably would as well.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The map should be a lot redder. SSM has become much more popular since 2008.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Butte might flip too.

[RosettaStoned]

  Fresno County would flip too.

[Del Tachi]

The map should be a lot redder. SSM has become much more popular since 2008.

For sure. 

I think even Orange and San Bernardino would flip at this point.

[Mr. Smith]

The map should be a lot redder. SSM has become much more popular since 2008.

For sure. 

I think even Orange and San Bernardino would flip at this point.

Them too,...wouldn't be surprised if Modoc or Glenn were the final holdouts.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The map should be a lot redder. SSM has become much more popular since 2008.

For sure. 

I think even Orange and San Bernardino would flip at this point.

Them too,...wouldn't be surprised if Modoc or Glenn were the final holdouts.

Definitely Modoc. That was Donnelly's strongest county in 2014.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Guaranteed flips:

Los Angeles
Ventura
San Louis Obispo
Lake
San Diego
Nevada

Probable flips:
Sacramento
San Benito
Trinity

Orange County would probably be 50-50 for prop 8. Christian conservatives in the south and socially conservative minorities (just look at Imperial/Riverside/San Bernardino/Fresno County results) in the north make it tough to see it flipping, even today.