2014 Gubernatorial & Senatorial Swing Map by County

[Adam Griffin]

Gah, I hope something like this didn't exist already (Miles probably beat me to it).

Anyway, fun fact I just figured out: the county in which I conducted field and GOTV operations for Jason Carter swung more to him than any other county did to a Gubernatorial Democrat in the entire South!

http://i.imgur.com/nD7x7kB.png



And here's Senatorial (2008/2014):

http://i.imgur.com/iFusMmp.png

[Miles]

It looks great. Nope, I don't think I've done a map for this

[Adam Griffin]

And Senatorial (2008/2014):

http://i.imgur.com/iFusMmp.png



Laughing at how AR & WV (both of which had candidates - one an incumbent) are indistinguishable from Alabama, where there was no Democratic candidate.

[Miles]

Adam, for the CO Governor, it might be better to do the swing from Hick vs. Maes + Tancredo to Hick vs. Beauprez. The way Dave has it, its just calculating the swing from Maes to Beauprez, so the Republican swing is really exaggerated.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Crazy how Mississippi swung D pretty much statewide EXCEPT for the delta!

[smoltchanov]

Crazy how Mississippi swung D pretty much statewide EXCEPT for the delta!

Not really. Childers was from hills in NE of the state, while Cochran was in the past a congressman from area at least not far from Delta.

[free my dawg]

Crazy how Mississippi swung D pretty much statewide EXCEPT for the delta!

Not really. Childers was from hills in NE of the state, while Cochran was in the past a congressman from area at least not far from Delta.

I wouldn't say that was why Cochran did well in the Delta. He probably did best there because of his large base of black support (not to mention the bitter McDaniel voters in the southern part of the state - I'm pretty sure that dark red county there is McDaniel's home county).

[ElectionsGuy]

Crazy how Mississippi swung D pretty much statewide EXCEPT for the delta!

Not really. Childers was from hills in NE of the state, while Cochran was in the past a congressman from area at least not far from Delta.

I wouldn't say that was why Cochran did well in the Delta. He probably did best there because of his large base of black support (not to mention the bitter McDaniel voters in the southern part of the state - I'm pretty sure that dark red county there is McDaniel's home county).

Eh, exit polls show blacks voted 92-8 for Childers, but blacks were only 30% of the electorate (37% of the state as a whole) so it probably had more to do with low turnout.

Also, I found something really interesting. Those who strongly supported the tea party voted 73-20 for Cochran, but those who somewhat supported it voted 89-9 for Cochran. So it looks like most of O'Hara's votes were from tea partiers and there actually was quite a bit of defecting to Childers by some hardcore conservatives!

[smoltchanov]

Crazy how Mississippi swung D pretty much statewide EXCEPT for the delta!

Not really. Childers was from hills in NE of the state, while Cochran was in the past a congressman from area at least not far from Delta.

I wouldn't say that was why Cochran did well in the Delta. He probably did best there because of his large base of black support (not to mention the bitter McDaniel voters in the southern part of the state - I'm pretty sure that dark red county there is McDaniel's home county).

Cochran did better then most Republicans (who usually get no more then 5% of Black vote in states like Mississippi) among blacks, but, as numbers show - not by too much. Black support was critical for him in run-off with McDaniel, not in general election.. Turnout - yes, race with him as Republican candidate was noncompetitive, and Childers admitted that from very beginning and did little general election campaigning. And difference between two on non-economical issues was rather small as well...

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, for the CO Governor, it might be better to do the swing from Hick vs. Maes + Tancredo to Hick vs. Beauprez. The way Dave has it, its just calculating the swing from Maes to Beauprez, so the Republican swing is really exaggerated.

Good idea - I don't know why I didn't consider that before. As some may have noticed, I manually corrected a similar swing for Kansas Senate by counting Orman as a Democrat.

[Flake]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/29/1368912/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presents-our-fully-interactive-visualizations-of-the-2014-federal-elections