Which state would be more likely to go Republican?
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  Which state would be more likely to go Republican?
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Poll
Question: All of these states are bastions of the Democratic party, but if one was to go for the GOP, which would it be?
#1
New York
 
#2
California
 
#3
Vermont
 
#4
Illinois
 
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Which state would be more likely to go Republican?  (Read 5526 times)
Abraham Reagan
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« on: March 27, 2015, 01:00:48 PM »

I feel like it might be Illinois, if the entire state, outside of Cook County, went Republican.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2015, 01:03:24 PM »

Illinois has a GOP governor. Are you referring to electoral votes?
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Abraham Reagan
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2015, 01:12:12 PM »

Yeah, I guess I should've been more clear. Which state in a presidential election?
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2015, 01:20:59 PM »

Yeah, I guess I should've been more clear. Which state in a presidential election?

In that case, Illinois. I suppose California is potentially possible, but you won't get a Republican win of Vermont or New York's electoral votes.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2015, 03:01:37 PM »

Illinois. 
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2015, 03:09:22 PM »

Illinois can at least go Republican in a landslide.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2015, 10:07:39 PM »

The PVI of IL is almost the same as CA, but IL is more elastic.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2015, 12:08:29 AM »

Without Cook, Romney would have actually won Illinois
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HiramJohnson
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2015, 11:38:03 AM »

California, if/when the GOP manages to court Asian-American voters.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2015, 12:50:04 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2015, 01:01:20 PM by OC »

No question, it is IL then VT then Ca then NY.  We saw it play out that way in 2014, if one has a lackluster Dem nominee. Kerry was one as well, but David Axelrod, Edwards campain manager had ties to Chicago machine.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2015, 01:40:53 PM »

California, if/when the GOP manages to court Asian-American voters.

How are they going to do that?

Of the four states (and really, none of them are very likely), Illinois is most likely to go Republican.   The Rockefeller Republican doesn't exist at any significant level within today's party--so states like Vermont and New York are off the table.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2015, 02:39:08 PM »

Illinois.

You have to figure that Obama had a home-state advantage. So in a great year for Republicans, it could swing their way in a presidential election.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2015, 03:38:48 PM »

Vermont.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2015, 03:41:26 PM »

Illinois easily.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2015, 03:46:35 PM »


Sorry to break it to you, but the Vermont of today would never vote for a Republican. I can see how you think its easier with the right Republican and the small population that it has, but the chance of having that "right Republican" is almost non-existent.
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Frodo
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2015, 04:41:59 PM »

Illinois -if Chicago deteriorates to Detroit-like levels.   
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2015, 05:23:10 PM »


Sorry to break it to you, but the Vermont of today would never vote for a Republican. I can see how you think its easier with the right Republican and the small population that it has, but the chance of having that "right Republican" is almost non-existent.

I think Vermont is a lot more elastic than the other three, and it at LEAST has a lot of "RINOs."  The other three have too loyal of Democratic hotbeds.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2015, 05:26:24 PM »


Sorry to break it to you, but the Vermont of today would never vote for a Republican. I can see how you think its easier with the right Republican and the small population that it has, but the chance of having that "right Republican" is almost non-existent.

]I think Vermont is a lot more elastic than the other three, and it at LEAST has a lot of "RINOs."  The other three have too loyal of Democratic hotbeds.

Only in gubernatorial races.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2015, 03:04:20 AM »

Illinois, because all it takes for the Democrats to lose is a poor result everywhere outside of Chicago.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2015, 05:27:26 PM »

Without Cook, Romney would have actually won Illinois

"Without the most Democratic 1/2 of the population of the state, Illinois would vote Republican."

Well no sh**. Without downstate, which has significantly less population than the Chicago area, Pat Quinn would still be Governor. The old "well without X area, [heavily Dem state] would have voted Republican" is useless and misleading.

A President Hillary Clinton may actually loose Illinois in 2020 assuming she runs for reelection.

lol
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DS0816
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« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2015, 07:41:35 AM »

A Republican would have to win about 58 percent (kind estimate) to 60 percent (more likely) of the U.S. Popular Vote in order to carry any of these states. A 45-state Republican landslide would make Vermont—historically the polar opposite of Deep South duo Mississippi/Alabama—one of a handful of states to hold for a routed Democrat.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2015, 03:38:48 PM »

Illinois, though all could go for the GOP in the right circumstances.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2015, 05:23:43 PM »

Schwarzenegger would have been the only GOPer to win Ca, the same with Giuliani.  Notwithstanding, those individuals, the GOP is DOA in those states.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2015, 06:19:36 PM »

Illinois, though all could go for the GOP in the right circumstances.

Under which circumstances do you see NY or CA going Republican?

Extreme conditions.
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