Last time a VP delivered a state
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  Last time a VP delivered a state
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Author Topic: Last time a VP delivered a state  (Read 2365 times)
bobloblaw
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« on: March 27, 2015, 07:44:26 PM »

When was the last time a VP candidate delivered a state that would otherwise not have been won?

1992 and 1996: TN? I can see TN going Clinton even without Gore.
1968: ME for Humphrey. ME was a GOP state then.
1960: TX for JFK
anything else?

The VP pick rarely delivers a state that would otherwise not have been won.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2015, 07:57:23 PM »

In 2008 Alaska would've been a lot closer had it not been for Palin.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2015, 07:59:46 PM »

Indiana in 1992
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2015, 08:04:05 PM »

You could look at this topic the other way round, too:
Obama may have owed Indiana and North Carolina (and perhaps even some more states) to Palin.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2015, 08:21:36 PM »

1992 and 1996 with Al Gore and TN.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2015, 09:17:13 PM »

Minnesota for Mondale in 1980.
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2015, 09:18:18 PM »

Maine with Ed Muskie in 1968.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2015, 10:01:05 PM »


I dont think so.

I do think definitely Muskie and ME in 68.

Maybe MN and Mondale in 80. It is hard to tell given Mondale ran again in 84.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2015, 10:45:49 PM »

Dole gave Oklahoma to Ford

LBJ gave Texas to Kennedy

Muskie gave Maine to Humphrey

Bush dethroned Massachusetts "not since Eisenhower" Dem streak for Reagan

Bentsen almost gave Dukakis the Dakotas
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2015, 10:50:13 PM »

I still think the correct answer is 2008...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2015, 10:57:56 PM »

I still think the correct answer is 2008...

McCain still would've carried Alaska without Palin. It was polling like Montana and the Dakotas before he picked her.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2015, 11:19:39 PM »

Dole gave Oklahoma to Ford

LBJ gave Texas to Kennedy

Muskie gave Maine to Humphrey

Bush dethroned Massachusetts "not since Eisenhower" Dem streak for Reagan

Bentsen almost gave Dukakis the Dakotas

I meant the state the VP is from.
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2015, 11:21:17 PM »

I still think the correct answer is 2008...

McCain still would've carried Alaska without Palin. It was polling like Montana and the Dakotas before he picked her.

No, you misunderstood me.
Bobloblaw did not ask: "When was the last time a VP candidate delivered a state to their boss?" The way the question is posed it can relate to the opposing candidate.
Without Palin on the GOP ticket, Indiana and North Carolina could have voted differently.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: March 28, 2015, 08:04:42 AM »

1992 and 1996 with Al Gore and TN.

If Gore delivered TN in 92 and 96, why couldn't he deliver it in 2000 lol? Clinton won TN in 96 because of Perot, not because of Gore. And he would have won it in 92 without Gore, too.
Gore screwed up his 2000 TN efforts,  that's why.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2015, 09:21:32 AM »

Vice presidential candidates seldom brings their home states on their own (there's usually some favorite son effect, but it's around a couple of percents).

Without a doubt, Kennedy wouldn't have carried Texas in 1960 without LBJ on the ticket. Humphrey wouldn't have carried Maine without Muskie in 1980, since Maine was then a solidly Republican state.

Quayle had some effect in retaining Indiana in such a wild year as 1992, but we can't rule out it would have went to Bush anyway. The same for Gore in 1992 and 1996.

1992 and 1996 with Al Gore and TN.

If Gore delivered TN in 92 and 96, why couldn't he deliver it in 2000 lol? 

Tennessee had underwent a huge political changes between 1992 and 2000, becoming more and more Republican. It was close in both 92 and 96 so we can reasonably assume Gore's presence did make a difference. Whether enough for Clinton to carry the state, it's debatable.

However, Gore could've easily carried his home state in 2000, given how close it was (and it wouldn't be as close had Gore been from somewhere else). All he had to do is to actually campaign there a little.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2015, 09:29:38 AM »

Richard Nixon was reputed to have said that a VP candidate cannot help his partner, so the aim is for him not to harm the ticket. Seems to be true for 1968, as Agnew had failed to carry Maryland but, despite some controversy over his pick, there's little indication he did hurt Nixon in MD or nationally.

It's interesting to see that in most of the cases, VP selection was a non-factor. Johnson/Humphrey, Ford/Dole, Reagan/Bush, Bush/Quayle (1988), Bush/Cheney, Gore/Lieberman, Obama/Biden McCain/Palin would've certainly carry a VP nominee's home state with or without him or her on the ticket. On the other hand, Nixon/Lodge, Goldwater/Miller, Nixon/Agnew (1968), McGovern/Shriver, Mondale/Ferraro, Dukakis/Bentsen, Dole/Kemp, Kerry/Edwards and Romney/Ryan all failed to accomplish it.

As of the main question, I"d sat the last time a VP candidate "delivered" a state was 1980 (I cannot see Carter winning in Minnesota without Mondale on the ticket).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2015, 09:58:32 AM »

Muskie delivering Maine in 1968 was the last likely time.  It's possible that Dole delivered Oklahoma (a neighbor is his state) in 1976.  Maybe Bush delivered his birth state, Massachusetts, in 1980 and 1984.
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2015, 12:29:29 PM »

Dole gave Oklahoma to Ford

LBJ gave Texas to Kennedy

Muskie gave Maine to Humphrey

Bush dethroned Massachusetts "not since Eisenhower" Dem streak for Reagan

Bentsen almost gave Dukakis the Dakotas

I don't think that Bush SR gave MA to Reagan. That probably had more to do with Ted Kennedy loyalists either voting for Reagan or staying home.
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2015, 12:31:16 PM »

It's debatable whether Gore or Quayle delivered to their respective bosses.  
But it's clearly obvious that Mondale delivered Minnesota to Carter.

So 1968 was not the last when such happened. (And it's thus the wrong answer.)
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2015, 12:36:04 PM »

I think the argument can be made for Gore in Tennessee 1992 and 1996. Dukakis lost there in 1988 by a landslide and Perot wasn't nearly as popular there as elsewhere.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2015, 03:10:08 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2015, 03:12:20 PM by Liberalrocks »

1960 LBJ carried Texas for Kennedy
1964 No
1968 Muskie carried then Republican Maine for Humphrey
1972 No
1976 Difficult to tell as the midwest was close that year although Minnesota was a closer Nixon victory 4 years earlier and more democratic then the national average.
1980: I think the last time a VP delivered a state was 1980. Given this year was a national landslide and that Minnesota actually voted for Nixon in 1972 I think Mondale helped Carter carry it. Mondale eeked out a victory 4 years later when he ran in 1984 otherwise I think Reagan would have carried Minnesota both times.
1984: No but Ferraro made NYC more democratic for Mondale then it had been for Carter in 1980
1988: No but Bentsen may have made Texas a few points closer given that Dukakis was a Northern liberal.
1992: Difficult to tell with Perot but I would say no. Perot may have prevented Bush from taking Tennessee as Bush carried neighboring states with the exception of Kentucky which was razor close.
1996: Same although Clinton was crusing to a larger reelection then 1992.
2000: No Connecticut would have gone Democrat regardless
2004: No
2008: No
2012: No
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buritobr
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« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2015, 04:51:57 PM »

Reagan's margin in Texas in 1980 was very big. Maybe, Bush did not deliver the state, but that margin. Reagan's margin in Texas would be smaller if the VP was other.
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Sol
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2015, 07:05:02 PM »

Lieberman clearly helped Gore in Florida, even though that actually wasn't were he was from.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2015, 04:07:32 PM »

1960 LBJ carried Texas for Kennedy
1964 No
1968 Muskie carried then Republican Maine for Humphrey
1972 No
1976 Difficult to tell as the midwest was close that year although Minnesota was a closer Nixon victory 4 years earlier and more democratic then the national average.
1980: I think the last time a VP delivered a state was 1980. Given this year was a national landslide and that Minnesota actually voted for Nixon in 1972 I think Mondale helped Carter carry it. Mondale eeked out a victory 4 years later when he ran in 1984 otherwise I think Reagan would have carried Minnesota both times.
1984: No but Ferraro made NYC more democratic for Mondale then it had been for Carter in 1980
1988: No but Bentsen may have made Texas a few points closer given that Dukakis was a Northern liberal.
1992: Difficult to tell with Perot but I would say no. Perot may have prevented Bush from taking Tennessee as Bush carried neighboring states with the exception of Kentucky which was razor close.
1996: Same although Clinton was crusing to a larger reelection then 1992.
2000: No Connecticut would have gone Democrat regardless
2004: No
2008: No
2012: No

1980 Reagan won NY by 3 points, in 1984 he won by 6.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2015, 04:16:23 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2015, 04:18:11 PM by OC »

2000 Graham would have delivered FL to Gore
2004 Warner or Gephardt would have delivered Kerry OH
2008/2012 Biden delivered PA to Obama
2016 Hickenlooper or Kaine would deliver VA or CO
Tom Perez or Castro will help deliver Co and NV Hilary
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