The Bull Moose Lives On-Fractures in the System

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Republican Party

Vermont Governor George Aiken-29%
Indiana Senator Wendell Wilkie-25%
Ohio Senator Robert Taft-22%
Newspaper Editor Frank Knox-17%
Fmr. Connecticut Congressman Schuyler Merritt 7%
In a relatively crowded primary field, the GOP united around moderate internationalist George Aiken, who represents a confluence of ideas in the party and hails from a region with a strong GOP base and tradition. Willkie's platform was more populist economically and more interventionist, appealing to a base of Midwestern farmers and many Southerners. Taft represented the right wing of the party, appealing to regions with isolationist pockets and right leaning voters wary of the Conservative Party. Frank Knox entered the race as a moderate, but was never really taken seriously outside of a few Midwestern states. His performance shocked many observers who decried his weak platform. Schuyler Merritt remained quite unknown throughout the campaign and this showed in his results.

Conservative Party

Fmr. House Democratic Minority Leader John Nance Garner-44%
Aviator and Activist Charles Lindbergh-35%
Michigan Congressman Clare Hoffman-21%
John Nance Garner profited from his former Democratic connections and Southern roots as he vanquished a popular national figure in the primary election. He ran as a party establishment figure with a highly detailed platform. Garner was not an isolationist. Charles Lindbergh, the early favorite in the race, quickly lost support after being questioned on the issues and lacking a depth of knowledge. He failed to successfully appeal nationwide despite his popularity. Clare Hoffman also likely took votes, as both were on the right side of this offshoot party. Hoffman employed quasi fascist rhetoric that scared many voters but appealed to hardline anti-Communists in certain states. His support was spread out, but dug into Lindbergh's potential base.

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Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions?

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Setting Up the 1940 Election

After a tough midterm election where his party sustained major losses, President Wheeler struggled to drum up support. With a relatively low approval rating among members of his own party, Wheeler is concerned for his future. Although the economy has been trending upwards due to war preparedness spending, with lower unemployment figures and more consumer spending, the specter of war now looms over the horizon. The US appears to be divided on full out intervention, so it's said that this election will be a mandate on war policy.

The Bull Moose Party, despite a rough convention, soldiered forward with President Wheeler and Vice President Sinclair. The most prominent danger to Bull Moose support with their own base is composed of the independent socialist bid of Bull Moose Congressman Norman Thomas and Montana Senator Jeanette Rankin, both of whom coalesced around Elmer Austin Benson in the primaries and convention. The Republican Party's nominee, George Aiken, selected Newspaperman Frank Knox as his vice president to provide a geographical balance on the ticket and attract Midwestern support. Alben Barkley, the Democratic nominee, picked New York Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt as his running mate. Lastly, the Conservative Party's leader John Nance Garner picked New Hampshire senator Styles Bridges to run with him on a Right Wing ticket.

The Bull Moose Party is running on a platform of civil rights for women and minorities, continuing aid to allies but not intervening, and a minimum wage. The Democratic Platform consists of intervention in Europe to aid the UK and France in their fight against Germany along with continuing the economic policies of the last few years. The Democrats oppose a preemptive attack on Japan, but they do support a draft. Moreover, the Democratic Platform calls for a huge boost in research and science spending for weaponry and new technologies. The Republican consensus is on cutting some of the jobs programs of the 1930's in favor of war preparedness and combat spending. Republicans support keeping a wary eye on Japan and forging alliances, moving towards intervention on the European stage. However, at this stage, Republicans do not support a draft. The Conservative Party supports interning German Americans, immediately attacking Germany, and curtailing federally contracted companies' labor union rights. They support a crackdown on any 'subversive' activity conducted by Black liberation groups, ethnic Americans, or immigrants.

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1940 Election Results

Democratic-Alben Barkley [KY] / Franklin Delano Roosevelt [NY]--41%-361
Republican-George Aiken [VT] / Frank Knox [IL]--25%-132
Bull Moose-Burton Wheeler [MT] / Upton Sinclair [CA]--13%-20
Conservative-John Nance Garner [TX] / Styles Bridges [NH]--13%-18
Socialist-Norman Thomas [OH] / Jeanette Rankin [MT]--8%-0

In an absolute blowout of an election, the Democratic Party proved that it was not only the South's party. Alben Barkley, playing off his immense experience and charisma, maintained a considerable lead throughout the campaign. Barkley made the best of a hawkish American public sentiment, highlighting President Wheeler's somewhat wishy washy policies on the idea of war. Moreover, he seeks to evaluate the American Deal programs to ensure that investments make it to the people. As a Southerner, he made sure the Conservatives didn't make strong headway into his turf. However, his selection of a popular Northerner gave the ticket a sense of strong balance. In fact, Barkley was able to even win some Bull Moose strongholds. The Bull Moose Party was perhaps the greatest tragedy of this election. Their disenchanted base split by the Socialists, the Bull Moose Party suffered HUGE losses not only in the presidential field, but in congress too. Recovery from this election will require a lot of mending divisions. The Republicans once again finished with a middling result leaving them longing for more. Time will tell if the Republican Party can rebrand and become the party of the center. This election, the GOP was attacked as aristocratic and out of touch. There is a clear need for reform in order to carry a national message. The Conservatives made major headway into the plains states and even into the West. Along with this decent presidential result, they picked up a few senate seats and house seats too. Conservatives definitely have momentum and will be a force in the midterms if today's results are any indication.

[Intell]

Very Interesting Timeline!!!

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Thank you!

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The 'Other' Kentucky Great Compromiser
January 1941-A bomb explodes in Brooklyn at a Jewish-American club, killing 29 people. The NPB's investigation ties this explosion to a German spy.
January 1941-The German-American Security Act, which would grant the NPB additional powers to detain German Americans, remove all German language programs from schools, and watch over German-American institutions, passes by a quite large margin, with the only opposition coming from some Midwestern German-American members of congress and Bull Moose members concerned with civil liberties.
January 1941-Liquor restrictions are overturned.
February 1941-President Barkley declares war on Germany announces the deployment of US troops and aircraft to Europe to fight Germany.
April 1941-Congress passes a research and science funding package along with defense budget increases, paid for by scalebacks in some of the American Deal programs.
June 1941-US intelligence intercepts a telegram from Japan warning of an attack on Pearl Harbor Hawaii.
June 1941-The US declares war on Japan and moves naval forces out into the pacific.
September 1941-The American War Readiness Act, which establishes rationing and a draft system passes with an overwhelming margin.
December 1941-Conservatives and Republicans attempt to curb labor union rights through a national 'Right to Work' bill. This motion fails but a compromise curbing striking rights of some major industries passes.
January 1942-Italy, undergoing heavy losses, yields to American promises and switches sides in the war. In the pacific, war goes onward and the US and Japan begin to engage on a larger scale.
February 1942-Internment camps are established for Japanese Americans. The Bull Moose Party resists this step, but it passes easily with tripartisan support.
April 1942-Surplus farm production is bought up and distributed at schools with the passing of a national free school lunch program.
May 1942-The US leaves the gold standard entirely as it experiences creeping inflation.
July 1942-Civil service reform mandates that positions be appointed by merit.
November 1942-In the midterm elections, Democrats roll onward, picking up house and senate seats along with various governorships. They now control both houses of government and the White House. The Conservatives perform well in the midwest and south, picking up a few house seats, but no new senate seats. The Republicans, fractured by war issues, lose big to Democrats in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. The Bull Moose Party surprisingly pulls off a few nailbiter wins to gain back some house seats and a few statewide offices too. However, their isolationism is far from the majority view of most citizens.
March 1943-Democrats propose an international organization for post-war cooperation known as the United Forum of Nations. (UFN) The proposal is debated in congress but shelved for later.
June 1943-The war continues, although in the Pacific, Russian forces have now come to the aid of the US and Japan is starting to cave inward. In Europe, the UK, French resistance, the USSR, Italy, and the US are doing a good job pushing Hitler out of France in the west and Poland in the east.
August 1943-Bombing raids into Germany begin
October 1943-A meeting between the UK, Italy, USSR, and US leads to a strategy of encircling German forces. However, Spain joins the war on the side of Germany, making the struggle in France all the harder.
November 1943-Japanese forces are pushed off of major islands.
December 1943-Working with China and the USSR, Japan is bombed heavily, including the gutting of Tokyo. American and USSR forces invade the island and take over strategic points.
January 1944-Amidst heavy pressure, Japan surrenders as Germany and Spain grow more powerful and take back parts of France.
February 1944-Mass arrests occur as the NPB cracks down on the rights of Spanish and German American suspected of 'subversive' activities. Conservative Senator Millard Tydings chairs the congressional commission on subversion.
May 1944-President Barkley establishes the War Coordination Board.
June 1944-Some of the American Deal programs are deemed unconstitutional by the courts.
August 1944-Regulations on small business formation are cut.
September 1944-The US weapons program appears to be paying off as Americans develop a slew of super-powerful weapons.
October 1944-American cluster bombs rain down over German and Spanish bases. While both these axis powers continue to fight, they grow weaker by the day as casualties mount and the superior firepower of the allies begins to show. The USSR pushes Germany back through Poland.

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1944 Primaries

Bull Moose

MT Senator Jeanette Rankin-34%
WI Senator Merlin Hull-33%
NY Rep. John Rogan-20%
Fmr. MN Rep. Rich Buckler-13%

In a very contentious primary which many call the battle over the future of the Bull Moose party, Jeanette Rankin barely beats out Merlin Hull. Jeanette Rankin runs on a pacifist platform of ending the war soon and focusing on equal rights at home. She also proposes an economic plan to provide free healthcare and free university for all Americans. Merlin Hull runs a bit more towards the middle, calling for a strong fight for the moment and then economic redevelopment in war torn nations along with an international body for cooperation. His internationalist, idealistic policies falter in front of the very isolationist part base. Economically and socially, his policies are slightly more moderate than Rankin's. Finally, John Rogan coalesces support from some major urban labor unions and also got inner city worker support. His platform lies between both Hull and Rankin on most issues. However, he remains ambivalent on civil rights issues. Finally, former Rep Rich Buckler, a less notable agrarian candidate, runs to the center on war issues and emphasized agricultural policy. His ideas revolved around a more efficient government working in tandem with the private sector. Socially, he is in favor of strong anti-lynching laws. He draws enough voters from Hull to deny him states like Minnesota, Florida, Massachusetts, and North Carolina and the win as a whole. Some states have their results voided due to intimidation from other parties. (In gray)

Republican

Indiana Senator Wendell Willkie-65%
Missouri Governor Forrest C. Donnell-19%
Fmr. US Attorney General William D. Mitchell-16%

Internationalist Wendell Willkie, now quite well known, pretty easily wins the GOP nomination. The top two candidates don't really differ much. Frankly, Forrest Donnell campaigns on having a more southern appeal, but his halfhearted rallying cry seems to be more of a VP campaign than anything. The biggest difference is his emphasis on turning social programs over to states as opposed to just trimming them down. Wendell Willkie calls for a comprehensive post-war foreign policy that pushes back on potential enemies, tries Germans, and establishes an international league for peace. He also seeks lower taxes for the growing middle class and more efficiency overall. Fmr. AG William Mitchell campaigns as a strident anti-communist bent on rooting out any insurgency or traitorous sentiment in the US. He also cautions against allying too much with the USSR and becoming too entangled in European affairs. However, despite his conservative foreign policy, he speaks against segregation and in favor of equal rights for all Americans. He gains limited support and suffers from low name recognition throughout.

[/]

Very Interesting Timeline!!!

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Conservative Party

VA Senator Harry F. Byrd-37%
Fmr. House Minority Leader John Nance Garner-31%
GA Rep. Carl Vinson-17%
NY Rep. Merwin Hart-10%
Marine General Pedro Del Valle-5%

Popular Virginia senator Harry Byrd defeats 1940 nominee John Nance Garner. He strikes a distinctly populist tone and paints Garner as out of touch. Byrd plays off of racial and social prejudices to perform strongly in the South and along the east coast. He rails out strongly against the 'elites' in charge of the nation's fortune, and promises to totally defeat Germany and Spain. Garner runs a good campaign, but not as much of a fire-breathing populist one. He sticks to a general smaller government message, and his less racially coded rhetoric does not win him favors in the South so much as out west. Carl Vinson runs as the candidate of segregation and anti-Communism. This endears him to many Southerners, but his low name recognition hinders his efforts, and his blatant connections to groups like the KKK harm him deeply outside of the South. New York Representative Merwin Hart runs an isolationist campaign focused on defending the US first and foremost, and negotiating a tough peace in Europe in order to bring troops home. He distinctly opposes any port-war organization of international cooperation. Finally, the first ever Hispanic candidate, General Pedro Del Valle runs as a military candidate for a good win in Europe. He doesn't shy away from his associations and wants to funnel more effort into the war, paid for by making government smaller at home. His plans don't catch on, in part due to racism, and in part due to his lack of campaign skill.

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Setting up 1944

The Democrats come into this election riding as high as ever. Where during the 1920's, the Democratic Party was labelled as a dying brand, they are now in full revival mode. The economy has now completely recovered from the depression, and wartime spending has fueled a nearly unprecedented job revival. On the social front, there is strong unity, partially enforced by the NPB, but mostly created as a result of wartime patriotism. Racial tensions are comparatively low, but Black workers on the homefront are getting frustrated at their lack of rights and lower pay. Union membership has declined over the past few years, but wages have remained pretty stable. Perhaps one of President Barkley's most underrated reforms, his civil service reform, has revolutionized machine politics, angering a number of big city mayors. Whether this will be enough to destabilize the usually Democratic machine vote remains to be seen, due to the president's high popularity because of the US' war successes.

The Democratic ticket remains unchanged, with President Alben Barkley and Vice President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The Republican nominee, wealthy businessman and 1940 primary candidate Wendall Willkie, selects Sumner Sewall, Maine's governor. This selection is seen as favorable in that it provides geographic balance and credibility to the ticket due to Sewall's military experience. The Bull Moose Party, now led by Montana Senator and former Socialist VP nominee Jeanette Rankin, votes to pick Burton Wheeler's Former Secretary of Agriculture and current university professor Henry Wallace. Wallace is well liked among rural voters, although some doubt his appeal to city dwellers. Finally, Virginia Senator Harry F. Byrd selects Georgia Representative Carl Vinson as his vice presidential pick. While Byrd is very well known, his campaign appears to already be faltering, as seen by his weak VP selection. It is said that the Conservatives are just shooting for some Southern states.

Platforms
Democratic: Continuing current war strategy, negotiating post-war agreements with the USSR, UK, China, and France, occupying Japan and Korea, loosening restrictions on unions, funding infrastructure projects at home after the war, slightly restraining NPB powers
Republican: Working towards peace by boosting troop numbers in the short term, cutting waste at the federal level, gradually implementing civil rights, lowering taxes, increasing foreign trade, setting up a post war peace board
Bull Moose: Universal federally funded healthcare, free college for all Americans, immediate civil rights for Blacks and women, restoring federal programs, a withdrawal of troops from all theaters, shifting to a monetary support role of the UK and USSR, rolling back NPB powers, ending internment camps, nationalizing some energy companies
Conservative: Turning pension programs over to the states, bolstering the NPB, passing a national Right to Work law, privatizing major government initiatives, continuing the current war strategy, resisting civil rights

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1944 Election Results

Alben Barkley [D-KY] / Franklin Delano Roosevelt [D-NY]--43%-378
Wendall Willkie [R-IN] / Sumner Sewall [R-ME]--29%-115
Harry F. Byrd [C-VA] / Carl Vinson [C-GA]--17%-34
Jeanette Rankin [BM-MT] / Henry Wallace [BM-IA]--10%-4
Earl Browder [SOC-KS] / A. Phillip Randolph [SOC-FL]--1%-0

Alben Barkley holds on for an easy reelection. Widely expected by pundits, this victory margin is quite large considering the 4 party system. Voters appear to approve of the status quo when it comes to America's top issue, the war abroad, especially in Europe. Public trust in the president remains quite high. However, despite his amazing margin, the president lost some ground in the South to his right because of Harry Byrd's candidacy. The Conservatives expanded mainly in the South and appear to be a growing partisan force for the future. However, they bled Midwestern support to the GOP and will need to fix this if they hope to win on a larger scale someday. The GOP did alright, losing support to Democrats in the West and gaining in the Midwest. The Bull Moose Party, led by a radical ticket, failed miserably in most places, although they gained votes in a few states. Their future will be under scrutiny.

In Congress, Democrats gained seats on Barkley's coattails. The GOP made gains from Bull Moose territory in congress, with their centrist-progressive wing winning big. The Bull Moose Party bled support everywhere. The Conservatives picked up a few seats in the South, but lost some of their Midwestern seats to the GOP and Democrats. 

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More Barkley for You and Me
January 1945-Recent figures show a major exodus of Black-Americans from the South to the North as Blacks fill countless open factory jobs.
April 1945-Polish resistance drives a weak German army even further back into Germany proper.
June 1945-American attacks on Spain hit Madrid and Barcelona, causing chaos and utter collapse of thinly stretched Spanish forces, who begin to retreat out of France as allied troops land flood in from the North.
July 1945-Berlin is hit with a nuclear weapon and Germany surrenders 3 days later. Spain surrenders too.
July 1945-Pacifist Bull Moose Party members strongly condemn the nuclear weapons usage.
August 1945-President Barkley presides over the peace process, which leads to the formation of the UFN. It is composed of a security council with permanent and rotating members along with an overall council consisting of many nations.
September 1945-The senate passes this treaty, bringing an official close to the war and an opening to a better era.
January 1946-President Barkley's approval hits 65%
April 1946-NPB restrictions on German and Spanish Americans are eased and camps are closed thanks to a push from New York Representative WEB DuBois.
June 1946- A comprehensive bill is passed that gives free college to returning veterans and provides for their healthcare. Attached to this bill is a major spending provision to build a nationwide highway system.
November 1946-The UFN negotiates a tense peace between Soviet Russia and Poland. Moreover, the USSR is tasked with occupying Korea while the US occupies Japan. Both nations are put on a timeframe to independence.
Midterm Elections: The Democrats make major gains in both the senate and house, as well as in regard to gubernatorial elections. In Kansas, Democrat George McGill broke a long streak of GOP and Conservative senators and won his race. In New Jersey, Archibald Alexander defeated a strong GOP and a strong Bull Moose candidate to cruise to victory. Many traditionally GOP seats in the Northeast went to the Democrats. The Bull Moose Party, again, lost a number of seats in rural areas, although they made modest gains in cities. The GOP lost big, and Conservatives even lost some seats to Democrats, although they absorbed some Bull Moose support in the west.
March 1947-The minimum wage is increased.
June 1947-Israel is founded.
July 1947-Democrats boost price supports to farmers and cut taxes on the middle class.
October 1947-A major aid package is passed to send US aid to European nations with shaky economies.

BREAKING: Vice President Roosevelt Passes Away November 1, 1947
Yesterday, the US' vice president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, passed away in his sleep. He was instrumental in working out foreign policy issues and will be remembered as a great VP. President Barkley is likely to select Arizona Senator Ernest McFarland to carry on as VP until the election.

December 1947-Democrats and the Bull Moose Party combine to pass a sweeping rural electrification bill.
January 1948-President Barkley announces that he will not stand for reelection.
February 1948-The Department of Education is formed and funded in order to provide funds to schools across the country.
April 1948-Union restrictions passed by the GOP are rolled back
June 1948-A major fight erupts in congress concerning racial equality. A Bull Moose bill to enfranchise millions of Blacks through ending the poll tax and ensuring ballot fairness opens up a fault line in the Democratic Party and garners even stronger opposition from the Conservatives.
August 1948-Blacks across the country begin to strike, causing controversy as major police forces and the NPB brutally repress the disorder.

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1948 Democratic Primaries

Alabama Governor James E. Folsom Sr.-27%
Missouri Senator Harry Truman-24%
Delaware Governor James M. Tunnell-21%
New Mexico Governor John J. Dempsey-16%
Illinois Secretary of State Edward Barrett-6%
NC-3 Representative Graham A. Barden-3%

In a battle to suceed the legacy of incumbent president Alben Barkley, a number of Democratic candidates ran for president. These candidates ranged along the spectrum from right to left of the party.

Starting from the right, NC-3 Rep. Barden represents perhaps the party's most conservative wing. He runs as a protest candidate against what he believes to be overly anti-segregationist and pro-progressivism candidates. His run is not taken very seriously, but he makes it known that he is a vocal anti-communist who does not support the UFN. Next, Alabama Governor James Folsom represents a right leaning tendency in the party with a lot of crossover popularity with more centrist members. Late in the primary season, President Barkley's endorsement helped Folsom win numerous states outside the South. Folsom defends segregation and promises to crack down on protesters. His forte, however, is on economic issues. Folsom talks heavily about how to enhance quality of life through social programs and tend to agricultural issues.

Next, toward the centrist wing of the party lies Illinois Secretary of State Edward Barrett. While he is relatively unknown, Barrett runs on a platform based around rolling back what he perceives to be excessive civil service reforms, expanding education, and fighting for investment in cities. In many ways, a tool of machine politics, he gains a tiny following, mostly based in Illinois and also in New York, Philadelphia, and even Boston. Delaware Governor James Tunnell is also a centrist leaning candidate. He runs on a platform of spurring business, helping rebuild Europe, passing some minor civil rights reform, cracking down on crime, and supporting unions. New Mexico Governor John Dempsey bridges the centrist and liberal wings of the Democratic Party. While he is a staunch backer of high public investment, civil rights, more anti-monopoly laws, and stronger support of farmers, he is also a very strident anti-communist.

To the left of the party lies Missouri Senator Harry Truman. Senator Truman runs on a platform of civil rights for blacks, universal healthcare, and aid to foreign nations. His attempt centers around winning over Bull Moose voters and potentially forging a progressive alliance. However, his end goal of a party merger and strong support of civil rights make him a bit of an anomaly in the climate.

In the end, Governor Folsom profited off of domestic unrest concerning black riots in the North and took some states outside the South, also benefiting from his superior organization. Truman lost due to this sentiment, and splitting the vote with other candidates. James Tunnell was selected as a VP pick to provide the ticket with balance.

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1948 GOP Primaries

California Governor Earl Warren-41%
South Dakota Senator Karl Mundt-38%
Secretary of Commerce Eric Johnston-15%
OK-8 Representative Ross Rizley-7%
The GOP also reflects a spectrum of ideas, from old-school big business Yankee Republicans to leftover Progressives closer to the Bull Moose Party than to Wall Street. This has cast doubts upon the party's very future.

Starting from the left, the GOP's slowly waning progressive wing coalesced quickly around one candidate. At first, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen announced his run for the presidency on a domestic platform similar to president Barkley's with a more strongly anti-Communist foreign policy. However, independent California Governor Earl Warren was drafted into the race by a number of citizen and announced his campaign, running simultaneously to Alben Barkley's right and left. A strong supporter of civil rights, Warren also supports expanding social services but making processes simpler. Warren espouses strong internationalism and also stands against going to war. Stassen dropped out upon Warren's declaration that he was to run as a Republican.

Towards the middle of the GOP, President Barkley's Secretary of Commerce, Eric Johnston was the first to announce. A well heeled businessman by profession, he calls for expanded investment in Europe and across the globe alongside US military expansion to help restore economies, fight Communism, and spur US business. Moreover, he supports cutting back some social programs and takes a moderate stance on civil rights. OK-8 Representative Ross Rizley stands for pretty much the same thing, although he opposes expanding civil rights. His niche is a rare one in the party.

Senator Karl Mundt of South Dakota carries the standard for the GOP's right leaning factions. He is ambivalent on civil rights issues, but prides himself on standing strongly against crime, subversion, and government waste. He wants to take apart machine politics and crack down more on labor unions, lowering taxes on businesses too. He is internationalist but wary of too much intervention.

Earl Warren prevailed in a very close race for the nomination. His strong moderate stances propelled him to major victories in the West and also helped him edge out Mundt in states like Illinois. His pro-civil rights positions also helped him win across the Northeast. Mundt's relatively weak campaigning also served as a major detriment to his finish. Johnston was a non-factor in many places but squeaked by in some Northeastern states with support from business interests. This victory spells out a win for the progressive faction of the GOP. It remains to be seen if the Mundt faction will break for the GOP in the general election.

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1948 Bull Moose Party Primary

California Governor Earl Warren [Fusion]-52%
Fmr. West Virginia Governor Matthew Neely-48%
Earl Warren, the GOP nominee, proved popular among Bull Moose voters as well, which had already been seen in California when they helped him win as an independent candidate for governor. His social liberalism, support for expanded education, fight against corruption, and policy record of enacting progressive reforms cemented his reputation among Bull Moose Party voters. There were some worries, however, that Warren might not be the biggest ally of unions. He faced off against Matthew Neely, an experienced pro-union former governor from a traditionally weak state for the Bull Moose party. Neely, while not as socially liberal, was to Warren's left on economics, backing a single payer universal healthcare system and major expansion of rural development programs. Warren rode to victory on his name recognition and popular record, but faced a strong fight against Neely, who battled constant accusations of corruption from Warren's campaign.

1948 Conservative Primary

Nebraska Governor Howard Buffett-53%
Conservative House Whip and Mississippi Rep. William Colmer-43%
Fmr. WI State Senator Gerald L.K. Smith-4%
NE Gov. Howard Buffett, originally considered an underdog in the race, pulled off an upset victory over House Whip William Colmer. Colmer, representative of the party's large Southern constituency and strongly opposed to any sort of civil rights, held a huge early lead. On economic issues, he was not very conservative, and in fact, never spoke out against some of the government programs instituted during the depression. Howard Buffett, however, with his isolationist, right-wing economic stances, quickly gained traction through a self funded campaign. He stood for paleoconservative ideals, and when allegations of cronyism plagued Colmer, Buffett emerged as a man of integrity and experience. Also notable was the reappearance of former Social Credit Party state senator Gerald Smith. He was dismissed as a fringe radical and didn't ever catch on.

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Setting up 1948

Theoretically, this election appeared to be a perfect one for Democrats. Coming off a decisive wartime victory with a strong economy, expanded social and infrastructure programs, and increased international cooperation, president Barkley enjoyed high approval ratings before he decided not to run. Worries about the return of troops had been quelled with smart social policies, even though the US was running a deficit at the end of the war. Despite the seemingly good conditions for the Dems, somehow, things fell apart for them. The race issue became the number one issue and divided Democrats along regional lines. As Blacks across the nation protested, there was a gulf of difference between both wings of the party, with one wing desiring harsh punishment of protesters and another calling for more civil rights. The selection of a segregationist to head the ticket did nothing to repair this fault line and sent many progressive Democrats scrambling for an alternative. Democrats go into this election anxious and divided.

The Democratic ticket does not pacify liberals, with right leaning Alabama Governor James E. Folsom Sr. and centrist Delaware Governor James Tunnell leading the party onwards. The Republican/Bull Moose nominee, California Governor Earl Warren, decides to go all in for the progressive vote and picks former West Virginia Governor Matthew Neely, who leans to his right socially but his left economically. This pick provides geographic and ideological balance to the ticket while putting some non-traditional states into play. Analysts rank this ticket as having a very good chance of winning. Finally, Nebraska Governor Howard Buffett picks South Carolina 1st District Rep. L. Mendel Rivers, a fervent segregationist and an internationalist. He provides Southern outreach, although it is expected that the Democrats will improve on their performance in the South this election. Will the Conservatives be able to make any gains this cycle? Their outreach to the Old Right via Howard Buffett is likely to peel off Republican voters in the Midwest, and it remains to be seen if the endorsements of some right leaning GOPers will make a difference.

Platforms
Democratic: Stationing troops in Europe to quell Soviet expansionism, cracking down on protests, repealing state level civil rights reforms, helping grow small businesses, opening up trade with other nations
Republican/Bull Moose: Passing civil rights reforms and working with the Black community for progress, protecting American labor, a balanced budget paid for by trimming some social programs and unifying military branches (part of a compromise on the platform made with Bull Moose labor interests), keeping strong diplomacy with other nations, expanding healthcare, federal aid for housing expansion for veterans
Conservative: A crackdown on protests, lowering the US' global presence to focus on home, returning to the gold standard, lower taxes, cuts to social programs, educational reforms, cracking down on unions and machine politics, no action on civil rights

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1948 Election Results

Earl Warren [R/BM-CA] / Matthew Neely [R/BM-WV]--46%-292
James E. Folsom Sr. [D-AR] / James Tunnell [D-DE]--32%-173
Howard Buffett [C-NE] / L. Mendel Rivers [C-MS]--21%-66
A. Phillip Randolph [SOC-FL] / Norm Thomas [SOC-OH]--1%-0

The concept of a fusion ticket proved especially powerful. Not only did the fusion ticket mop up out west, but it garnered the vote of much of the old Northeastern Republicans. In general, both the GOP establishment and the Bull Moose voters came together to fight for the Warren/Neely ticket. Moreover, they even made inroads into some Appalachian areas, promising a fight for miners and unions. A few ancestrally Democratic areas in the West remained Democratic, but overall, the fusion ticket won with their blended stances. The Democrats lost around the country, even though they held onto the white vote in cities hit by riots. Outside of cities, across the northern parts of the US, Democrats were quite weak. The Conservative Party partially left their Southern base, despite their VP selection. With a crafted appeal to Old Right isolationists, the Conservatives shifted into the plains region, winning a number of states, some by narrow margins. Moreover, they were able to increase percentages in some New England areas among Old Right voters. Will this election demonstrate a shift in the Conservative Party over the long term?

In Congress, both the Republicans and the Bull Moose Party gained a number of seats. Many congressional races featured challengers running against eachother, although a number of districts maintained the fusion ticket for congressional races. The Bull Moose Party gained seats in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountain west. Republicans gained in the Northeast along with on the West Coast. Conservatives lost seats to Democrats in the South, but gained seats from Republicans in the Plains states. Democrats lost big around the nation, but won back seats in the South.

[msnmllr]

Very interesting topic so far. Too bad that this didn't occur in real life. Is this fusion ticket a one time thing? Or will the Bull Moose and Republican parties merge?

My only criticism is that yellow is much harder on the eyes than gold

[Intell]

Love that the bull moose, had a republican candidate for president. Yuck, would support Fosolm over Warren, this probably signals the death to the bull-moose party (to be replaced with a more left-wing party), with the rising of the conservative party.

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Warren-Neely: the Pre-Race Bill Battle
March 1949-The president appoints a commission, led by Conservative North Dakota Senator Gerald Nye (one of few in his party to approve of a dialogue on civil rights), Bull Moose Oregon Senator Wayne Morse, Colorado Republican Senator Eugene Milliken, and Democratic Kansas Senator George McGill.
March 1949-War breaks out in Greece as a shaky democratic government is struck by attacks from Communist insurgents backed by the USSR. The president decides to stay out of this conflict, much to the chagrin of congressional anti-communists.
April 1949-Conservatives and GOP officials roll out a plan to consolidate public works agencies, poverty aid programs, and other social programs. This plan is expected to cut into the deficit, but faces sharp opposition in congress, with many believing it will lead to cuts in services.
May 1949-The social service efficiency bill barely passes congress after concessions are made to Southern Democrats who seek to maintain full public works funding.
May 1949-The NMMM commission on race relations concludes that a number of problems are fueling racial unrest and provides a list of solutions, some more controversial than others.

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Racial Equality Bill of 1949
I. Bans the "separate but equal" schooling system
II. Bans segregated public accommodation
III. Desegregates the military
IV. Prevents hiring discrimination based on race and sex
V. Bans government discrimination against POC
VI. Bans poll taxes, literacy tests, etc
VII. Calls for the DOJ to intervene after a legal investigation process to end discriminatory voting practices/repression
VIII. Bans discrimination in voting
IX. Allows for ballots in different languages
X. Sets up a system of non-partisan independent panels for redistricting
XI. Bans redlining practices
XII. Increases funding to local police forces for riot combating and prevention

Passage
While agreed to by the 4 senators on the commission, the Racial Equality Bill went up against harsh opposition in congress, which was controlled by a Republican plurality. A filibuster quickly came into place in the senate, and after the inclusion of planks preventing nationwide implementation of school busing and the removal of a number of more controversial provisions, most Republicans and all Bull Moose Party members were prepared to lend their support to the bill. However, Northern Democrats were split, with enough holding out to prevent the bill's passage. The later addition of increased funding to local police forces to combat riots caused a few voted to flip, ensuring the bill's passage. The bill passed 52-48 in the Senate and 228-207 in the House.

Analysis
This bill is likely to be a realigning one for future generations. The Black community is now more likely to support the Republican Party and the Bull Moose Party. This will likely change the political dynamic nationwide, as Southern Democrats will fall victim to Conservative attacks on their party. The American public appeared to be generally supportive of more rights, but the extent of the racial equality bill is sure to enrage large parts of the population.

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Post-Racial Division to Midterms
July 1949-Congress votes down a proposal to expand healthcare to all Americans, thanks to an effort by Republicans, showing divisions in the coalition
October 1949-Soviet aid to communists in Greece leads to a surge in communist strength, and the Soviet Union occupies Iran
December 1949-The president's calls for an end to Soviet occupation of Iran fall on deaf ears, and the UFN intervenes to little success, leading Conservatives to call for an exit from the organization
February 1950-President Warren flips positions on Greece and pledges to aid them, signing a congressional bill authorizing aid to anti-Communists there and in Spain, where a fledgling democracy is struggling
May 1950-In an attempt to reach out to unions, president Warren calls for restrictions on company actions against strikers. However, congress shoots this down.
June 1950-Congress shoots down president Warren's appointment of a pro-civil rights, left leaning justice to the Supreme Court
October 1950-Congress takes down another appointment, of Henry Wallace as Secretary of Agriculture. This shows a high level of division.

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Midterms

House
Big Losses: Democratic Party
Moderate or seemingly ambivalent Southern Democrats took a clobbering in many districts, crowded out by segregationist Conservatives. Northern Democrats suffered slightly with rising black turnout at the hands of the Bull Moose Party in some areas and racial backlash votes for Conservatives.
Lost some seats: Republican Party
The Republican Party lost some Northeastern seats to the Bull Moose Party, which did not get as much association with Warren's failures. Republicans struggled to find their way, but did better in the great plains with a swing away from Conservatives in that region.
Gained a few: Bull Moose Party
The Bull Moose Profited from swings in other parties to gain in the Northeast, electing a host of new progressives to office on bold promises of reform. Moreover, the first Southern Black Bull Moose members of congress were elected due to newfound turnout. Medgar Evers (BM-MS), Edgar Nixon (BM-AL), and William Borders (BM-GA) joined northerners, namely, incumbent WEB DuBois (BM-MA) and newly elected Adam Clayton Powell (BM-NY) in congress.
Gained Many Seats: Conservative
The Conservative Party, pursuing a strategy of maximizing racial backlash, did very well. They won many seats in the south, and many districts in urban white ethnic areas swung towards them from Democrats. The Mississippi house delegation flipped to Conservative control, as with the Georgia, Arkansas, and South Carolina delegations. They promised to repeal civil rights laws and trim the federal budget. Some Southern areas held out against the tide, but the Conservatives have grown in power, even electing some reps in the Western US.

Senate
Much the same story as the House, with losses for the Democrats and Republicans. Some races were quite surprising or represented major shifts. Notable Races With Closish Finishers:
Alabama:John G. Crommelin defeats Lister Hill (i) and Mark Jenkins*
Arkansas:J. William Fulbright (i) (one of the south's few Bull Moose members, in a shocking win) defeats Orval Faubus and Wilbur Mills in an absolute nailbiter
North Carolina: John H. Kerr defeats Carl Durham and Emory McCall
New York: Joseph O'Leary defeats Leonard Hall (i) and Mary Louise Nice
Wisconsin: Edward Knappe defeats LaVern Dilweg (i) and Lawrence Smith

Governor
Same story as the senate and house.

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Midterms Onward
February 1951: President Warren passes his company strikebreaking restrictions, appeasing the wary Bull Moose Party
April 1951: US aid to Greece appears to be effective and the communists begin to collapse
July 1951: With support from Republicans and Democrats alike, the president passes a sweeping science bill that ups investment in nuclear technology, biological and chemical sciences, and health
August 1951: The Supreme Court rules that Alabama's attempts to change voting procedures without proper notice are unconstitutional, creating tension between federal and state governments
December 1951: A bill passes to cut income taxes overall, but institute capital gains taxes
March 1952: Left leaning Democrats and Bull Moose Party representatives try and fail to expand Social Security in the face of Conservative, Republican, and some Democratic opposition
June 1952: Earl Warren founds the Department of Education
August 1952: A last minute bill passes to eliminate a number of regulations on small businesses and also provide unemployment insurance to laid off workers
October 1952: Inflation starts to become an issue