2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[retromike22]

My current ratings:

Lean GOP:
Arizona
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio

Tilt GOP:
Indiana
Florida

Toss-up:
Nevada
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania

Tilt Dem:
Illinois
Wisconsin

Lean Dem:
None yet, but possibly Colorado in the future.

Current Prediction:

D+5: IL, WI, PA, and NH. FL a surprise win. Dems hold NV.

[smoltchanov]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I won't issue official ratings with full reasoning until July or so, but here's a rough idea:

Toss-Up:

NV
WI
PA

Lean D:

IL
CO (I personally feel that this will become a Toss-Up, but I'm giving Bennett the benefit of the doubt until Republicans prove they are willing to nominate a strong, electable candidate.)

Likely D:

WA
CA (Due to Top-Two Crap)

Lean R:

NH (Toss-Up if Hassan runs)
OH
NC
FL (as long as Rubio or Bondi is the nominee, Toss-Up otherwise)

Likely R:

AK (primary crap)
AZ (Lean R if McCain loses nomination or Dems nominate Sinema/Kirkpatrick)
MO
LA (Safe R if Vitter loses governorship and still runs for senate reelection)
GA
KY (Safe R if Rand Paul is the nominee)
IN

Safe D (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

OR *
MD
NY
VT
CT
HI

Safe R (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

UT
ID
ND
SD
IA *
AR *
KS
AL
SC
OK

[SWE]

Likely R:
Alaska
North Carolina (Given that democrats are planning on running Hagan)

Lean R:
Arizona (Likely R when McCain loses the primary)
Florida
Ohio

Tossup
Illinois (Tilt D)
Nevada (Tilt D)
New Hampshire (Tilt R)
Pennsylvania (Pure Tossup)
Wisconsin (Pure Tossup)

Lean D
Colorado

Likely D
California (Because of the top-two primary)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Optimistic about Toomey still. NC and IN are pretty vulnerable though. More than NH.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ratings:

Prediction:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Don't know how to do the map, but:

Safe R: SC, GA, AL, LA, AR, KY, MO, IN, IA, OK, KS, ND, SD, ID, UT, AK
Likely R: AZ
Lean R: FL, OH
Tilt R: NC, NH, PA, NV*
Tossup: WI, IL
Tilt D:
Lean D: CO
Likely D: MD
Safe D: CA, OR, WA, HI, NY, VT, CT

Predictions:
A national GOP-friendly election results in President Scott Walker or Jeb Bush and results in a GOP pickup in Nevada and nothing else- GOP 55, DEM 45.

For 2018:
Safe R: TN, MS, TX, NE, WY, UT
Likely R: AZ, MO*
Lean R: IN*, ND*, MT*
Tilt R: NV
Tossup: WV, OH, VA, FL
Tilt D: PA
Lean D: NJ, WI, MI, NM
Likely D: MN
Safe D: CA, WA, MD, DE, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI
Safe King (I/D/R): ME

Prediction: Republican pickups in Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio.  King agrees to caucus with the Republicans, giving the GOP a 62-38 majority.  2020 does see it come back to Earth a bit, with the Democrats winning in Colorado and North Carolina, but the Republicans still hovering around 60 with a re-elected President and a pretty much permanent GOP House.  But, it is amazing that three major victories in a row (2014, 2016, 2018) would only barely give a filibuster-proof majority.

[Miles]

FWIW, most of the maps here are leaving out Oklahoma.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FWIW, most of the maps here are leaving out Oklahoma.

adding OK to mine, with a rating of safe R.

[retromike22]

FWIW, most of the maps here are leaving out Oklahoma.

Thanks, fixed.

[IceSpear]

Likely R:
AK (in case Murkowski loses the primary)
GA
IA (in case Grassley retires and/or Dems get Vilsack)
LA (Vitter probably vacates this)

Lean R:
AZ
IN
MO
NH (will be a toss up if Dems can get Hassan)
NC

Toss Up:
FL (Rubio is clearly not running, and Murphy is)
OH
PA
WI (will be lean D if Feingold runs)

Lean D:
CO
NV (would've been a toss up if Reid didn't retire)
IL*

Likely D:
CA (in case it becomes R vs. R)

[Miles]

I'll move WI to pink if/when Feingold gets in and I'll maybe NH a notch or so down once Ayotte gets an actual challenger.

[IceSpear]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

If it ends up being a wave, 6-10 seats flipping is not outside the realm of possibility. The possibility shouldn't really be discounted when there hasn't been a non wave election in the Senate since 2004 (yes, 2012 counts. The only reason Dems gained "only" two seats was because they were starting from such a ridiculously high base. Similarly, if the GOP gained 2 seats in 2016, it would be a wave.)

[smoltchanov]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

If it ends up being a wave, 6-10 seats flipping is not outside the realm of possibility. The possibility shouldn't really be discounted when there hasn't been a non wave election in the Senate since 2004 (yes, 2012 counts. The only reason Dems gained "only" two seats was because they were starting from such a ridiculously high base. Similarly, if the GOP gained 2 seats in 2016, it would be a wave.)

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

[Miles]

^ 8 is the Democrats realistic ceiling, IMO. They'd need IL, WI, PA, FL, NH, OH, NC plus some sort of primary shenanigans in AZ/IN or a major upset in MO.

[PAK Man]

My current ratings:

Safe R:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Idaho
- Kansas
- North Dakota
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- Utah

Likely R:
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Missouri
- South Dakota

Leans R:
- Florida (I'll move to Tossup when Rubio officially announces presidential bid)
- New Hampshire
- Ohio

Tossup:
- Illinois
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin

Leans D:
- Colorado

Safe D:
- California
- Connecticut
- Hawaii
- Maryland
- New York
- Oregon
- Vermont
- Washington

[Orser67]

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

I honestly don't think 6 seats would require all that big of a wave. In a favorable atmosphere, Dems should easily hold all their seats and take Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, plus have a shot at North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Taking all those seats doesn't seem like a huge wave to me. In a huge wave, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona could all be in play, plus possibly Kentucky and Alaska.

[Xing]

My current ratings:

Likely R:
AK
AZ
IN
MO

Lean R:
NC
OH

Tilt R:
FL
NH
PA

Tilt D:
IL
NV
WI

Lean D:
CO

The rest are all safe, unless Grassley retires in Iowa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tier 1 Dem targets
Oh, Pa, WI, CO, NV, FL, IL

Tier 2
NH if Hassen runs

Wildcards
NJ and WV if Menendez gets into legal problems and Manchin is elected gov



2-6 pickups by Dems

Likely Pa, WI, CO, NH, NV and IL for a 4 seat net gain

[Mr. Illini]

Solid D = 90% red
Likely D = 70% red
Lean D = 40% red
Tilt D = 30% red
Toss up = 50% green
Tilt R = 30% blue
Lean R = 40% blue
Likely R = 70% blue
Solid R = 90% blue

[smoltchanov]

Surely - not 10. Even in a wave. 6? May be, but it will reuire a really BIG wave.

I honestly don't think 6 seats would require all that big of a wave. In a favorable atmosphere, Dems should easily hold all their seats and take Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pennsylvania, plus have a shot at North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Taking all those seats doesn't seem like a huge wave to me. In a huge wave, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona could all be in play, plus possibly Kentucky and Alaska.

I can't imagine wave big enough for Missouri (absent Akin), Indiana (absent Murdoch), Georgia and Arisona (in next 10 years) and Iowa (with Grassley) being in play. Even less - Kentucky and Alaska. That leaves 7 states. To win even 5 of them is a sort of achievement. In addition - all post-Bush Jr. waves were Republican. And polarization increased considerably since 2006-2008, while split-ticket voting decreased markedly. No, i am pessimistic about  Democratic chances in very NEAR future. Later on, beginning somewhere about 2022 - quite possibly..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Dems really need is four seats it will entail: Mastro, Bennett, Duckworth, Sestak and Feingold winning, and 1 of the following from NH, OH and FL. 

A wave of some sort would have tp entail more retirements from McCain, Rand Paul and Rubio.  Dems best hope in AZ was in 2012, KY in 2014, and a Christie or Huckabee Nomination in 2016, to win in FL.

Best bet in NH or Oh for the fourth seat.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

All the Dems really need is four seats it will entail: Mastro, Bennett, Duckworth, Sestak and Feingold winning, and 1 of the following from NH, OH and FL. 

A wave of some sort would have tp entail more retirements from McCain, Rand Paul and Rubio.  Dems best hope in AZ was in 2012, KY in 2014, and a Christie or Huckabee Nomination in 2016, to win in FL.

Best bet in NH or Oh for the fourth seat.

They need 5 if the Republicans reclaim the White House, but I agree that the two are somewhat correlated, meaning that a Democratic wave in the Senate would probably net a Democratic President and vice versa.

[xavier110]

Dem likely hold: CO
Dem likely pickup: IL
Tossup: FL, NH, NV, PA, WI
Rep likely pickup: --
Rep likely hold: AZ, IN, NC, OH

I doubt the map exceeds these states

[Nyvin]

I'm fairly confident that the Democrats will hold Nevada and Colorado and then have a clean sweep of all 8 competitive seats in the east.    

Dem Pickups:  IA, IL, WI, OH, PA, NH, NC, FL

To go further on this, the Dems so far have outstanding candidates and also Hillary is almost guaranteed to bring a boost in turnout being the first female president.   Also Hillary is a much better fit for all the midwestern states that are up this time than Obama was.   

Russ Feingold is probably my favorite candidate up in Wisconsin and he's still very popular unlike Ron Johnson who isn't well liked.

Patrick Murphy will be very competitive in Florida for the open seat being vacated by Rubio.

Ted Strickland will be able to ride the Hillary wave to victory in OH,  he as well is quite popular.

Mark Kirk is very vulnerable in Illinois and pretty sure darn near anyone can beat him there.

I'm confident Maggie Hassan in NH is going to run for the Senate seat, and incumbent governors have good track records in unseating incumbent senators. 

That leaves NC, IA, and PA.   Those will probably be the hardest races but Burr is unpopular and Toomey isn't popular enough to survive a wave in a blue state.    Grassley is old as dirt and I'm pretty sure he's going to retire, he's just holding out till they figure things out behind closed doors.   

And there you have it,  Democrats pick up 8 seats and go up into the majority 54-46.