2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions
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Author Topic: 2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions  (Read 52078 times)
Hydera
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« Reply #100 on: May 26, 2015, 09:52:15 PM »

Moreover, McCain is a great campaigner. He won by 24 points in 2010!
The AZ Senate race in 2010 speaks more about the ineptness of the Democrats in 2010 than it does anything about McCain.

Do you mean hopelessness?

2010 was a very bad year for democrats. Its not like any other candidate they put up would of been close to flipping the result.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #101 on: May 27, 2015, 06:19:39 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2015, 12:34:38 PM by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey (R-PA)...PPP

30% of voters approve of the job Toomey is doing to 37% who disapprove. Those numbers are little changed from when we polled the state in January and found 28% approving to 35% who disapproved. Throughout his first term we've consistently found Toomey with about a third of voters approving of him, about a third disapproving, and about a third having no opinion either way.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/toomey-leads-sestak-by-4-in-rematch.html

Close to his ceiling? If so, Pat  Toomey loses. He must campaign to win, and he will need to show what he believes. He has played things closely to his vest so far, avoiding controversy. He will have to take sides on some controversial issues, especially if he is to get the financial support that he will need.

He seems like a fairly good politician, at the least in keeping a potentially-toxic agenda concealed well enough, but that will not be enough should there be anything like a D wave.  His approval is in the league with Johnson in Wisconsin, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have some similarities.

He is not the new Rick Santorum -- that is beyond any question.

...but here's one contrast: the other Senator from Pennsylvania.


Q16
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?

 43% Approve
..........................................................
 33% Disapprove
......................................................
 24% Not sure
..........................................................






Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents

App      Rep  Dem

<40       3     0
40-44    4     0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #102 on: May 28, 2015, 03:20:00 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2015, 06:54:23 AM by pbrower2a »

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_spring_senrace052715.pdf

Ayotte 45
Hassan 43

Ayotte favorability: 48/28

I do not use favorability polls.






Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents

App      Rep  Dem

<40       3      0
40-44    4      0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2

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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #103 on: May 31, 2015, 03:21:59 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2015, 03:36:31 PM by Mr. Illini »

Update

Green toss up/30 tilt/40 lean/70 likely/90 solid

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #104 on: June 01, 2015, 02:47:59 AM »

Leaning Dem
Toomey; Kirk; Johnson; Rubio FL; CCM; Bennett

Leaning R
Portman; Ayotte; Burr; McCain
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #105 on: June 01, 2015, 03:24:43 AM »

Leaning Dem
Toomey; Kirk; Johnson; Rubio FL; CCM; Bennett

Leaning R
Portman; Ayotte; Burr; McCain

Never saw a poll with Toomey losing to any possible Democratic candidate. Quirky Florida is, IMHO, pure tossup even with Murphy (and guaranteed loss with Grayson). Nevada? Not clear whom Republicans will run. Portman, Burr, McCain - between Lean R and Likely R. Ayotte - depends on Hassan's decision.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #106 on: June 01, 2015, 03:34:25 AM »

Mine arent predictions; they're projections, more or less, and gives the clearest route to 272 and senate majority.

Toomey is mildly fav, but he, just like Ayotte is part of 272 blue wall.

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #107 on: June 01, 2015, 03:42:00 AM »

Mine arent predictions; they're projections, more or less, and gives the clearest route to 272 and senate majority.

Toomey is mildly fav, but he, just like Ayotte is part of 272 blue wall.



Another matter... Yes, to win Senate and Presidential majority Democrats will need something like this...
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #108 on: June 03, 2015, 01:07:29 PM »

Moving NC to Likely R:




Toss-Up:

NV (Likely R if Sandoval runs, Likely D if Angle runs. Toss-up otherwise.)
FL

Lean D:

IL
WI
CO (Toss-Up if Cynthia Coffman runs, Likely D if Buck runs. Lean D otherwise.)

Likely D:

WA
CA (Due to Top-Two Crap)

Lean R:

NH (Toss-Up if Hassan runs)
OH (Toss-Up if Sittenfeld drops out)
PA
AZ

Likely R:

AK (primary crap)
MO
LA (Safe R if Vitter loses governorship and still runs for senate reelection)
GA
KY (Safe R if Rand Paul is the senate nominee)
IN
NC

Safe D (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

OR *
MD
NY
VT
CT
HI

Safe R (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

UT
ID
ND
SD
IA *
AR *
KS
AL
SC
OK
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #109 on: June 03, 2015, 06:37:13 PM »

Senator Richard Burr, R-NC. PPP

There's been little change in the state of the North Carolina Senate race over the last month. Voters remain closely divided on Richard Burr- 35% approve of the job he's doing to 36% who disapprove- little different from his 36/37 spread a month ago. Despite his tepid approval numbers though Burr still starts out with pretty healthy leads for reelection. He's up by anywhere from 9 to 18 points against the 5 Democrats we tested against him.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/cooper-takes-small-lead-over-mccrory.html#more

I'm not going to make much of a 2% improvement.




Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents

App      Rep  Dem

<40       3      0
40-44    4      0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2


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morgieb
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« Reply #110 on: June 05, 2015, 10:21:59 AM »

Safe R

Alabama - hopefully this time the Democrats actually run a candidate Tongue

Arkansas - may have been competitive in the right circumstances, but the Democratic bench here has been decimated. Don't see Boozman losing.

Georgia - two strong candidates ran in 2014 and couldn't even make a runoff. Yes 2016 should be better than 2014, but unless Barrow was to somehow run, I can't see the Dems making a dent here.

Iowa - if Grassley retired would be a toss-up. He's running again though and at this stage it's very unlikely that he'll change his mind.

Idaho - Crapo's drink driving scandal might lead to a primary, but it doesn't matter.

Kansas - was hyped up in 2014. Instead the Dems (well techincally he was an Indie but still...) bombed. Will be a long time before another competitive race pops up here.

Louisiana - 5 years ago this might have gotten some attention as the seat is open and the bench was solid, but these days the Dems have no-one.

North Dakota - will Hoeven even get a candidate?

Oklahoma - lol. Maybe ODF could run, not like we have anyone better.

South Carolina - back in the day democracy in South Carolina was a foreign concept. The parties may have changed, but the theory in some ways still applies today.

South Dakota - let's hope the Dems can run a candidate against Thune this time. Even if they do, a loss isn't happening.

Likely R

Alaska - Murkowski is probably the most moderate Republican these days and will struggle to win a primary. Accordingly there's some potential for a Miller-level candidate hurting the Republicans here. Despite this it's hard to see the Dems winning here, unless Begich was to run.

Indiana - Coats has retired, and Hill is a reasonably attractive candidate. But he's not Evan Bayh, and as long as the Republicans don't nominate a complete disaster (which they shouldn't), this won't be particularly interesting.

Kentucky - pretty much every Dem candidate here looks attractive on paper but busts significantly in practice. Paul's potential retirement the only opportunity for the Dems here, and even then I'd expect whoever the Republicans put up to win, unless by some miracle the return of the Blue Dog actually does happen.

Utah - if Matheson was to run, this might actually be interesting given that Mike Lee isn't that popular in Utah. A primary challenge is also a risk, but unlike most this one comes from the establishment so I'd probably expect Lee to survive. Even so, Utah is Utah, and if the Dems don't get Matheson this won't be competitive. Even with him it'll be an uphill battle for Team D.

Lean R

Arizona - McCain is not well liked, and Kirkpatrick is a strong recruit. There's also a risk of a really right wing candidate getting the nomination and blowing it. That said, Arizona hasn't been very elastic lately so the Republicans should still be the favourites.

Missouri - Kander's a decent recruit and Blunt (IIRC) traditionally hasn't been super well liked. Plus the Dems have pretty good infrastructure in Missouri. I'm a bit more optimistic than most about this race, but that might be down to a lack of polling.

North Carolina - Burr leads the field by large margins and I don't know who the Dems will actually run here. That said, he's vunerable to the right candidate, he's still rather anonymous after 11 years in the Senate, and North Carolina is traditionally flaky at the Senate level. It's less competitive than some may have hoped, but there are parallels between Burr now and Dole around 2007-08.

Pennsylvania - more of a Tilt R than the rest of my Lean R's, but Toomey has been leading by robust margins and Sestak seems a bit of a dud recruit. He's also moderated pretty well. That said, I'd expect Hillary to win here by a comfortable margin, which forces Toomey to run a fair bit ahead of the ticket and also opens up the possibility of Sestak being swept in by her coattails.

Tossup

Florida - on paper you'd expect Floridan Senate races to be Lean R. Traditionally the Republican base here has been rather strong, whereas the FDP is notorious for being terrible. This time however the Dems got their best candidate in Pat Murphy, whereas the Republicans' best candidates pulled out. Definitely very winnable for Team D, though Alan Grayson will go negative on Murphy and potentially harm his positives, and he's still slightly raw and therefore may be not quite what he was cracked up to be in a statewide race.

Nevada - Harry Reid is retiring. That's probably not bad news for the Democrats as he was far from popular. His infrastructure in the state however is world-class so he'll help his chosen successor in Masto. Sandoval, the one Republican with enough appeal to make the race non-competitive is unlikely to run. The rest of the field is a bit mixed and it's hard to predict what sort of candidate the Nevadan Republican Party - which has a dodgy reputation but can find good statewide candidates - throws up. This is one race where it's hard to tell exactly what is going on, at least until the Republican field simmers down.

Ohio - Ted Strickland on the other hand is very tested statewide, and he's in a good position with the polls. The bad news however is that Portman is a strong incumbent with lots of money and a willingness to fight, and Strickland does have his negatives. He also is getting on and may not execute a strong campaign - think Tommy Thompson back in 2012. I doubt Sittenfield has much effect.

Lean D

Colorado - Bennett only just knocked off a terrible Republican candidate last time around, but it was in 2010. If the Republicans found an excellent candidate, he would be vunerable, but the best one is already in the Senate and won his race by a narrow margin anyway. In this climate he should be OK.

Illinois - although Tammy Duckworth isn't a terrific candidate, she's running in a very blue state that I struggle to see electing a Republican in a Presidential electorate. Kirk is a very good politican but he's running an uphill battle...and he's made a few gaffes along the way.

Wisconsin - Johnson isn't very popular here, and Russ Feingold is running again. Already Feingold is leading by huge margins. I expect Johnson to run a better campaign than Feingold, but I doubt it'll be enough, especially in a state where the Democrats should win Presidentially.

Likely D

N/A

Safe D

California - the top two primary I think will bite the Democrats on the ass eventually, but the Dems sucessfully cleared the field for Kamala Harris, whereas the Republican field seems to be a bunch of nobodies. Harris won't have any issues unless Sanchez breaks into the Top 2 - which won't matter for these purposes as she's a Democrat anyway.

Connecticut - in an open seat this might be interesting, but as it is? Nup.

Hawaii - Schatz had his one competitive race last year in the primary. He'll be safe for life.

Maryland - yes Hogan won a governor's race here last year, and yes an Edwards/Van Hollen primary will be interesting. But the state is still very blue, and the Republicans don't really have a bench here anyway.

New York - remember when this state was competitive? I don't.

Oregon - a Wyden retirement may make this interesting. But he's still young enough that I don't see why he would, and as it stands he's uber safe.

Vermont - Leahy's an institution in Vermont politics. Any Republicans worth their salt here will challenge Shumlin for governor.

Washington - Washington always seems quasi-competitive due to the strong Republican nature of the East. But rarely do Republicans win here. Murray won't have any problems here, the Republicans have some attractive candidates that could be good statewide candidates in the right circumstances, but most of them won't give up their House seat for a kamikaze misson like this.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #111 on: June 05, 2015, 02:44:19 PM »

Pure Tossup

FL Patrick Murphy v Gen R

Pa Toomey is more vul than Portman. Hilary should win state over Jeb by six, to help Sestak

NH Ayotte is tied with Hassan

The rest I leave as is

Dems net 3-5 seats; NH tipping pt race
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #112 on: June 10, 2015, 12:14:40 PM »

Ohio Senate Race a Toss Up

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/ohio-senate-race-a-toss-up.html#more

Portman is the one who counts. For a valid comparison in Ohio, consider the other side:

Quote
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Approval polls only.





White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.

Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange --  Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.

Blue  -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red --  Republican running for re-election with current polls available.


Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --

"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.

Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.

An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.

Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.

NO PARTISAN POLLS.

This shows less than many would like to see. I'm not rating the strength of the opponent or the likelihood of the incumbent seeing himself in good-enough health to last into the election.


What I see so far with incumbents:

App      Rep  Dem

<40       4      0
40-44    3      0
45-49    1      2
50-54    2      0
55-59    0      0
>60       0      2
retire    1       3  
indict     0      1
other   12      2



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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #113 on: June 10, 2015, 01:42:24 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2015, 01:54:17 PM by OC »

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #114 on: June 10, 2015, 06:37:08 PM »

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Keep watching. Knowing how Parkinson's works, do not be surprised of a retirement.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #115 on: June 10, 2015, 11:52:33 PM »

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #116 on: June 11, 2015, 12:05:26 AM »

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Keep watching. Knowing how Parkinson's works, do not be surprised of a retirement.

How exactly would that impact the race? "Likely R" instead of "Safe R", but still far from being a Toss-up.

It's Likely R with or without Isakson. People forget that he could be primaried by someone like Jody Hice or Karen Handel.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #117 on: June 11, 2015, 11:25:24 AM »

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))

More Dems will come like Strickland and CCM, because dems are enthusiastic about taking back senate.

Especially with the Ohio poll showing Clinton ahead, the bellweather.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #118 on: June 11, 2015, 12:06:52 PM »

Feingold, Duckworth, Sestak and Bennet and CCM will win. Waiting on Hassan as well. And Senate majority will be complete

I always envy an bsolutely unbridled optimism of our Democratic friends up to (and sometimes - including) election day. But after that - .... "The people are dumb" and similar accusations reign supreme)))))

More Dems will come like Strickland and CCM, because dems are enthusiastic about taking back senate.

Especially with the Ohio poll showing Clinton ahead, the bellweather.

As i always say - we will see in November. Next year..
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retromike22
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« Reply #119 on: June 29, 2015, 03:46:27 PM »

Can this thread be stickied?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #120 on: June 30, 2015, 03:21:49 AM »

Safe R:

Alabama
Alaska (Likely R if there are primary shenanigans and Mark Begich joins in)
Arkansas
Idaho
Iowa (Its Grassely, so yeah)
Kentucky (even if Paul is denied re-election, federal elections are heavily Republican)
Kansas
Louisiana (Dems have no bench + Jungle Primary)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah (Will move to Likely R if/when Matheson runs)

Likely R:

Georgia (only because its Georgia)
Indiana (like all Indiana races, dems have an outside chance of winning if there are too many shenanigans + open race)
Missouri (Blunt is not as vulnerable as people seem to think)

Lean R:

Arizona (He'll likely survive a primary, but he's weaker than he ever was before)
New Hampshire (Toss-Up if/when Hassan runs)
North Carolina (no matter the nominee)
Ohio (no matter the nominee Toss-Up if/when Strickland runs)
Pennsylvania (Yeah, Toomey is looking good starting out)

Toss-Up:

Florida (Lean R if Grayson is the nominee)
Illinois (This is on the verge of being Lean D)
Nevada (R's have a decent bench since the scored big in 2014)
Pennsylvania (despite Toomey's supposed early advantage, its still Pennsylvania)
Wisconsin (Will move to Lean D if/when Feingold announces)

Lean D:

Colorado (Toss-Up if Mike Coffman is the nominee)
Wisconsin

Safe D:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon (Likely D if Wyden retires, but Oregon R's are incredibly weak Even if Wyden retires)
Vermont
Washington
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #121 on: June 30, 2015, 06:03:11 AM »

FL; Pa; OH pure tossups
Lean R NH, AZ and NC
Lean D NV, CO, IL and WI

3-5 net pickup for Dems
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #122 on: June 30, 2015, 01:11:10 PM »

I'll update mine:

Pure toss-up:
-Florida

Tilt D:
-Nevada
-Wisconsin

Tilt R:
-New Hampshire
-Pennsylvania (I may move this to Lean R if Toomey is still polling strong in the coming months)

Lean D:
-Colorado
-Illinois

Lean R:
-Ohio (It Portman's doesn't poll better against Strickland in future polls, this will be moved to Tilt R or even Toss-up)

Likely D:
None

Likely R:
-Arizona (If McCain loses in the primary, this will be moved to Lean R or even Tilt R)
-Indiana
-Missouri
-North Carolina
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #123 on: June 30, 2015, 03:24:01 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2015, 05:13:13 PM by Wulfric »

Post-reevaluation:




Toss-Up:

NV
FL
NH

Lean D:

IL
WI
CO

Likely D:

WA

Lean R:

OH
PA
AZ

Likely R:

AK (primary crap)
MO
LA
GA
IN
NC

Safe D (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

CA
OR *
MD
NY
VT
CT
HI

Safe R (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

UT
ID
ND
SD
IA *
AR
KS
KY *
AL
SC
OK
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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« Reply #124 on: June 30, 2015, 04:25:53 PM »

First prediction:



It looks pretty Dem friendly at this point, and I anticipate turning a lot of the leans and likely Rs to likely and safe in the coming months.
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