2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Mehmentum]

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama- Safe R

Alaska- Safe R

Arizona- Tossup (With McCain), Likely D ( With Ward) (Ann Kirkpatrick is running a solid campaign, but a lot depends on whether McCain loses the primary and whether Trump carries the state in November)

Arkansas- Safe R

California (Safe D) Likely Harris (Kamala Harris starts out as the favorite post-primary.)

Colorado- Safe D

Connecticut- Safe D

Florida- Tossup (even with Rubio running for the GOP)

Georgia- Safe R

Hawaii- Safe D

Idaho- Safe R

Illinois- Safe D (Kirk isn't a fit for his state in a Presidential year)

Indiana- Likely R (Young is stronger than his primary opponents, but he showed little organization during the primary, and that may cost him dearly)

Iowa- Lean R (Grassley is beatable, but it'll take a lot of attack ads to win here. Judge is however, a solid candidate so far)

Kansas- Safe R

Louisiana- Runoff (Safe R)

Maryland- (Safe D)

Nevada-Tossup

New Hampshire- Tossup (Unlike "AngryNewHampshireWomen"Volunteer, I recognize Ayotte isn't out of it by any stretch.)

New York- Safe D (Congratulations Chuck Schumer)

North Carolina- Tossup (Polls show this one to be close, and Hillary is contesting the state)

Ohio- Tossup (The definition of a tossup race)

Oklahoma- Safe R

Oregon- Safe D

Pennsylvania- Lean R (Toomey's facing a slightly weaker opponent, but he can't afford to relax)

South Carolina- Safe R

South Dakota- Safe R (at least Democrats found someone to run against Thune this time around)

Utah- Safe R

Vermont- Safe D

Washington- Safe D

Wisconsin- Safe D (See Illinois , plus Johnson hasn't even tried to moderate)

[Green Line]

Florida and Arizona are subject to change depending on what happens in the primary.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Safe R - Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia, Alaska
Safe D - Maryland, New York, Vermont, Connecticut, Hawaii, Oregon, California, Washington
Strong Lean R - Missouri, Louisiana, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa
Strong Lean D - Colorado
Lean R - Arizona, North Carolina
Lean D - Illinois (pickup), Wisconsin (pickup)

Seats at least leaning toward Republicans: 49
Seats at least leaning toward Democrats: 47

Toss-Ups (republicans need 1-2, Democrats need 3-4): Nevada, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio

[Green Line]

In light of the Patrick Murphy story currently breaking,  FL Senate:  TOSSUP--LIKELY R

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In light of the Patrick Murphy story currently breaking,  FL Senate:  TOSSUP--LIKELY R

[Green Line]

In light of the Patrick Murphy story currently breaking,  FL Senate:  TOSSUP--LIKELY R

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqnF4JM0wtQ

[BuckeyeNut]

In light of the Patrick Murphy story currently breaking,  FL Senate:  TOSSUP--LIKELY R

Agreed. Rubio being the candidate probably does help.

[Gass3268]

In light of the Patrick Murphy story currently breaking,  FL Senate:  TOSSUP--LIKELY R

Lol, no understanding of the actual facts.

[ElectionsGuy]

CO: Lean D --> Likely D
PA: Toss-Up --> Lean R
WI: Lean D --> Likely D

We need polling data on Illinois. If Kirk is down and outside the margin of error in the next poll, I'll move Illinois to Likely D. Nearly impossible to overcome the impending double digit Trump loss in that state.

From most likely to flip to least likely to flip:

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. New Hampshire
4. Florida
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Pennsylvania
8. Nevada
9. North Carolina
10. Colorado
11. Missouri
12. Iowa
13. Indiana

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

[Xing]

PA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

[ElectionsGuy]

NV: Lean D --> Toss-Up
IN: Likely R --> Lean R (for now)
MO: Likely R --> Lean R

Still waiting on Illinois polling. Kind of stuck on Arizona whether I should be saying Toss-Up or Lean R, but I've seen two polls with Kirkpatrick leading so...

From most likely to flip to least likely to flip:

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. New Hampshire
4. Florida
5. Ohio
6. Nevada
7. Arizona
8. Pennsylvania
9. Indiana
10. Missouri
11. North Carolina
12. Colorado
13. Iowa

[Gass3268]

I agree with TN volunteer's moves and I'm putting moving NV down to Lean D.

[Xing]

Indiana: Likely R -> Lean R

[Gass3268]

Moving Iowa to Likely R, locking Pennsylvania into Lean D.

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Pennsylvania
5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Ohio
8. North Carolina
------------------------
9. Arizona
10. Nevada
11. Iowa
12. Missouri
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia
15. Colorado

[Gass3268]

Moving Missouri to Lean R

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Pennsylvania
5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Ohio
8. North Carolina
------------------------
9. Missouri
10. Arizona
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia
15. Colorado

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

[heatcharger]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

PA being Lean R is debatable, but Likely R just makes no sense.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

PA being Lean R is debatable, but Likely R just makes no sense.

I think Toomey will outperform Trump by about 7, and I have the PA Presidential race as Tilt R, so I think Toomey is strongly favored, right on the border of Lean R and Likely R.

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 6(IL, IN, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 1(FL)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

[Xing]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

PA being Lean R is debatable, but Likely R just makes no sense.

I think Toomey will outperform Trump by about 7, and I have the PA Presidential race as Tilt R, so I think Toomey is strongly favored, right on the border of Lean R and Likely R.

Even if that's the case, is he really more likely to win than Bennet? Glenn is certainly a weaker candidate than McGinty, not that she's great.

[Gass3268]

Moving Indiana to Lean D

Chances of flipping:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Pennsylvania
6. Ohio
7. Florida
8. North Carolina
------------------------
9. Arizona
10. Missouri
11. Nevada
12. Iowa
13. Louisiana
14. Georgia
15. Colorado

[ElectionsGuy]

IN: Lean R --> Toss-Up

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Florida
6. Ohio
7. Nevada
8. Arizona
9. Pennsylvania
10. Missouri
11. North Carolina
12. Colorado
13. Iowa

This is a officially starting to look like a disaster map for Republicans.

8/2/16 Update

PA: Lean R --> Toss-Up

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a officially starting to look like a disaster map for Republicans.

I wouldn't say that just yet. If they can hold the lean states on your map (NC/MO/PA) and then win FL/OH/AZ (where they're slightly favored), then they need to win either Nevada or one of IL/WI/IN. Difficult, but not impossible. The only state where they are doomed is NH.

Still they need way more toss-ups than the Democrats do. If one of Arizona, Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania falls, they're done. All the Democrats need is IL + WI + IN + NH with Hillary as president and they've got it. And if Ward wins the primary in Arizona or something bad happens in Missouri or North Carolina, forget about it.