2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[windjammer]

Rght now, I believe democrats will pick up IL, WI, IN, PA, NC and NH.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A week to go, and anyone who tells you that they know what is going to happen, or even which party will hold the majority, is delusional. Democrats looked to be pulling away in NV and IN for much of October, but new polling shows those races back to dead even, giving the republicans new paths to the majority. Also, democratic spending patterns show some level of concern about Feingold's race, which has remained stuck at only Lean D for weeks now, and there is new polling in NC that has to concern them.

 But Republicans also have reason to worry - they are still struggling in MO , and can't be pleased with the recent data out of PA. Republicans must also keep a careful eye on FL and AZ, and prepare for a potentially competitive runoff in LA.

Meanwhile, in NH, no one knows what is going to happen, with state fundamentals strongly favoring Hassan but the polls showing a dead heat and a possible late surge for Ayotte.




Leans - WI, FL
Strong Leans - LA, AZ

[Xing]

Control of the Senate is still up in the balance, but Democrats are clearly favored, as Republicans need all four Toss-Ups.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Iowa: Likely R -> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D -> Likely D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Lean D

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While the state is still a Toss-Up at the presidential level, Democratic Senate hopes appear to be completely gone in AZ, so that state locks in for the GOP. Meanwhile, after careful consideration, I am leaning PA to the dems. This does not mean the race is over and I will continue to watch it over the weekend, but the Susquehanna poll showing McGinty up 6 is a sign so good for her that it cannot be ignored.

I will make a call in the other Toss-Ups by Monday Evening.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Indiana appears to be choosing Todd Young as its next Senator

[Nyvin]

Control of the Senate is still up in the balance, but Democrats are clearly favored, as Republicans need all four Toss-Ups.

This would be my exact map.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Predicting a Manchin Majority:

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Making final calls:

[ShadowRocket]

My final guess is that the Democrats hold NV and the GOP hold OH, FL, and IN. The Dems pick-up IL, WI, PA, NH, MO, and NC giving them a 52 seat majority. I'm being bold about NC. Ross seems to have the momentum at the moment, but I wouldn't be surprised if Burr holds on.

[Kingpoleon]

Likely R: FL
Lean R: MO, NC, NH
Tilt R: NV
Pure tossup/Not called today: LA, PA
Lean D: IN
Likely D: WI, IL