2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[IceSpear]

[retromike22]

Updated ratings:

Lean GOP:
Arizona
Missouri
North Carolina

Tilt GOP:
Indiana

Toss-up:
Florida
Illinois
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Tilt Dem:
Nevada

Lean Dem:
Colorado
Wisconsin

Current prediction: D+6

[JerryArkansas]

[ElectionsGuy]

Same as before except Wisconsin moved to Lean D.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Toss-Up:

NV (Likely R if Sandoval runs, Lean R if it's Dina Titus vs. Heck/Krolicki, Likely D if Angle runs. Toss-up otherwise.)
FL

Lean D:

IL
WI
CO (Lean R if Mike Coffman runs, Toss-Up if Cynthia Coffman runs, Likely D if Buck runs. Lean D otherwise.)

Likely D:

WA
CA (Due to Top-Two Crap)

Lean R:

NH (Toss-Up if Hassan runs)
OH (Toss-Up if Sittenfeld drops out)
NC
PA

Likely R:

AK (primary crap)
AZ (Lean R if McCain loses nomination or Dems nominate Sinema/Kirkpatrick)
MO
LA (Safe R if Vitter loses governorship and still runs for senate reelection)
GA
KY (Safe R if Rand Paul is the senate nominee)
IN

Safe D (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

OR *
MD
NY
VT
CT
HI

Safe R (* means that while retirement is highly unlikely, such an event would make the state more competitive):

UT
ID
ND
SD
IA *
AR *
KS
AL
SC
OK

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CO (Lean R if Mike Coffman runs, Toss-Up if Cynthia Coffman runs, Likely D if Buck runs. Lean D otherwise.)

Why do you think that the race will be Lean R if Coffman is the Republican candidate?

Because I think the fact that he won in 2012 despite Obama winning his district 52-47, and the fact that he ran well ahead of Gardner in his district in 2014 against a very strong challenger shows a proven ability to win over swing voters, more of one than Gardner ever had.

[NewYorkExpress]

My Turn;

Alabama; Safe R I'll be impressed if Democrats even find an opponent to face Shelby

Alaska; Safe R Even if Lisa Murkowski retires, or loses her primary, I find it hard to see the GOP losing here. If Murkowski does draw a significant Democratic opponent keep an eye on Hollis French, Andy Josephson and Dennis "Johnny" Ellis Egan (Mark Begich also could win, but I'd rather see him run for Governor in 2018 against Bill Walker)

Arizona Tilt D Despite John McCain's unpopularity, he probably is the GOP's best chance of holding the seat If he is defeated in a primary, Democrats chances shoot up. Watch out for Matt Salmon, David Schweikert and Jan Brewer if a primary is to be had...all three look formidable but can easily be attacked.

Arkansas Safe R Even in the unlikely event that Hillary wins Arkansas, I find it unlikely that John Boozman would lose, as ticket splitting here likely would favor Hillary, and not down ballot candidates.

California Safe D Rocky Chavez is a better candidate than Elizabeth Emken by miles...too bad for the GOP, California is so Democratic. (Something tells me running against Congressmen Scott Peters/Juan Vargas, or State Senator Marty Block instead).

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

ConnecticutSafe D

Florida Lean R Patrick Murphy's a solid nominee, but he's the underdog to almost every possible nominee. To win he'll have to attack a lot, and hope that neither Bush or Rubio is atop the GOP ticket (VP is irrelevant). It's doable, but without having idea of which Republican he's facing, it's too early to go any further.

Georgia Likely R
The only reason isn't safe is because it's a Presidential Year. This should be moved there by Labor Day 2015, if all goes on it's current track.

Hawaii Safe D

Idaho Safe R

Illinois Likely D Kirk isn't quite toast (He should beat Pat Quinn, for example), but he's deep trouble, and arguably is in worse position than, say Ron Johnson because of the lean of his state.

Indiana Likely R It's not impossible to see Democrats gain the seat-Brad Ellsworth comes to mind, but it's unlikely at best.

Iowa Likely R Believe it or not, Chuck Grassley is beatable. It's just that the most likely candidates to defeat him-Chet Culver and Tom Vilsack, probably won't run.

Kansas Safe R

Kentucky Likely R While the GOP's chances take a hit if Rand Paul is not the nominee, it's not going to be a big one... and the odds of having Paul atop the ballot isn't that bad.

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Safe R The Riots in Ferguson not only sparked a discussion about race, it locked this seat up for the GOP.

Nevada Lean D Like Jim Bunning a decade ago, the Democrats odds of holding this seat go up with Harry Reid's exit. The math is now simple, if Brian Sandoval runs and survives the primary, he wins, any other Republican, Democrats win.

Nevada Tossup This likely will be the closest race in 2010...unless Ayotte is on the ticket, where she could lose New Hampshire as VP and win as Senator (or vice versa).

New York Safe D

North Carolina Tossup The big problem with Richard Burr is that he's an unknown, even after six years in service, meaning this race likely will be close no matter what the climate is like.

North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R Rob Portman will likely face a stiff primary challenge, and assuming he survives that he'll be a slim favorite over his opposition. If he loses the primary, it's a likely win for Democrats.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Likely R Pat Toomey is much stronger than people are giving him credit for, and should win with relative ease (though a matchup with Michael Nutter would be exciting).

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R (Wonder how Thune Daschle rematch would look)

Utah Safe R

Vermont Safe D

Washington Likely D If Dave Reichert runs and makes the top two, this could be close, otherwise it'll be a snoozer).

Wisconsin Lean D With Feingold running, Democrats are now favorites...Wisconsin is not Illinois, however and that means there is a minimal amount of room for Johnson to slip away

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tier 1 battlegrounds

Pa; OH; NV; WI; IL

Tier 2.Battlegrounds

CO; FL and NH

IL and WI are likely Democratic takeovers

NV Cortez-Masto is untested

Pa and OH where Dems have primary opposition and challengers will mount a charge at Toomey and Portman

NH is wildcard; it will give Dems the Senate and presidency without defeating Portman.

My predictions isnt based on polls; based on 272 map.

[publicunofficial]

Current predicted winner in parentheses:


Safe D:
California (Harris)
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
Hawaii (Schatz)
Maryland (Van Hollen)
New York (Schumer)
Oregon (Wyden)
Vermont (Leahy)
Washington (Murray)

Likely D:

Lean D:
Colorado (Bennett)
Wisconsin (Feingold)

Toss-Up:
Florida (Murphy)
Illinois (Duckworth)
Nevada (Masto)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)

Lean R:
Arizona (McCain)
Indiana (Stutzman)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)
Ohio (Portman)

Likely R:
Georgia (Isakson)
Kentucky (Paul)
Missouri (Blunt)
North Carolina (Burr)

Safe R:
Alabama (Sessions or Shelby, whichever one is the one up for re-election)
Alaska (Murkowski)
Arkansas (Boozman)
Idaho (Crapo)
Iowa (Grassley)
Kansas (Moran)
Louisiana (Whoever Vitter appoints)
North Dakota (Hoeven)
Oklahoma (Lankford)
South Carolina (Scott)
South Dakota (Thune)
Utah (Lee)


New Hampshire drops to Toss-Up if Hassan runs. North Carolina is toss-up/tilt R if Hagan or someone else really strong runs. Lol at Wulfric's constant praise of Mike Coffman.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

CO-6 2012 Results:

President: Obama +5
U.S. House: Coffman +2

CO-6 2014 Results:

Governor: Hickenlooper +3.5
U.S. Senate: Gardner +3.5
U.S. House (against an excellent democratic nominee): Coffman +9

If that doesn't demonstrate great ability to win over swing voters, I don't know what does.

For all the praise that Gardner still gets in terms of his strength as a candidate, he was effectively generic R. His narrow statewide margin showed that he didn't win because he was "republican jesus", he won because of:

1) The wave
2) Udall's terrible campaign
3) Local media being in the tank for him

You take any of those away, and Udall wins. Seriously.

If the CO GOP wants a gardner-like candidate who needs a lot of luck to win, Scott Tipton is the one. But if they want a candidate that not even the 2012 climate could take out, Mike Coffman is the guy to choose, and the only reason the atlas dem mentality says he isn't a great candidate is because they know he's a great candidate and think not admitting it will make him less great.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

CO-6 2012 Results:

President: Obama +5
U.S. House: Coffman +2

CO-6 2014 Results:

Governor: Hickenlooper +3.5
U.S. Senate: Gardner +3.5
U.S. House (against an excellent democratic nominee): Coffman +9

If that doesn't demonstrate great ability to win over swing voters, I don't know what does.

For all the praise that Gardner still gets in terms of his strength as a candidate, he was effectively generic R. His narrow statewide margin showed that he didn't win because he was "republican jesus", he won because of:

1) The wave
2) Udall's terrible campaign
3) Local media being in the tank for him

You take any of those away, and Udall wins. Seriously.

If the CO GOP wants a gardner-like candidate who needs a lot of luck to win, Scott Tipton is the one. But if they want a candidate that not even the 2012 climate could take out, Mike Coffman is the guy to choose, and the only reason the atlas dem mentality says he isn't a great candidate is because they know he's a great candidate and think not admitting it will make him less great.

By this logic, Florida should be leans D right now since Patrick Murphy won 60-40 in 2014 in a R-3 district.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

CO-6 2012 Results:

President: Obama +5
U.S. House: Coffman +2

CO-6 2014 Results:

Governor: Hickenlooper +3.5
U.S. Senate: Gardner +3.5
U.S. House (against an excellent democratic nominee): Coffman +9

If that doesn't demonstrate great ability to win over swing voters, I don't know what does.

For all the praise that Gardner still gets in terms of his strength as a candidate, he was effectively generic R. His narrow statewide margin showed that he didn't win because he was "republican jesus", he won because of:

1) The wave
2) Udall's terrible campaign
3) Local media being in the tank for him

You take any of those away, and Udall wins. Seriously.

If the CO GOP wants a gardner-like candidate who needs a lot of luck to win, Scott Tipton is the one. But if they want a candidate that not even the 2012 climate could take out, Mike Coffman is the guy to choose, and the only reason the atlas dem mentality says he isn't a great candidate is because they know he's a great candidate and think not admitting it will make him less great.

By this logic, Florida should be leans D right now since Patrick Murphy won 60-40 in 2014 in a R-3 district.

As if Domino (Murphy's 2014 challenger) is even in the same galaxy in terms of candidate strength when compared to Andrew Romanoff. Also, unlike Bennet, the republican nominee in Florida will not be someone who nearly lost to about the worst possible person the republicans possibly could have nominated.

[morgieb]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

CO-6 2012 Results:

President: Obama +5
U.S. House: Coffman +2

CO-6 2014 Results:

Governor: Hickenlooper +3.5
U.S. Senate: Gardner +3.5
U.S. House (against an excellent democratic nominee): Coffman +9

If that doesn't demonstrate great ability to win over swing voters, I don't know what does.

For all the praise that Gardner still gets in terms of his strength as a candidate, he was effectively generic R. His narrow statewide margin showed that he didn't win because he was "republican jesus", he won because of:

1) The wave
2) Udall's terrible campaign
3) Local media being in the tank for him

You take any of those away, and Udall wins. Seriously.

If the CO GOP wants a gardner-like candidate who needs a lot of luck to win, Scott Tipton is the one. But if they want a candidate that not even the 2012 climate could take out, Mike Coffman is the guy to choose, and the only reason the atlas dem mentality says he isn't a great candidate is because they know he's a great candidate and think not admitting it will make him less great.

By this logic, Florida should be leans D right now since Patrick Murphy won 60-40 in 2014 in a R-3 district.

As if Domino (Murphy's 2014 challenger) is even in the same galaxy in terms of candidate strength when compared to Andrew Romanoff. Also, unlike Bennet, the republican nominee in Florida will not be someone who nearly lost to about the worst possible person the republicans possibly could have nominated.

Because 2010 and 2014 were such Democratic years.

[publicunofficial]

lol at Wulfric's continued praise of Mike Coffman.

[free my dawg]

Mike Coffman is too pure for this world.

[smoltchanov]

Mike Coffman is too pure for this world.

Of course - no. But he really outperforms a "generic Republican" in his generally swing district..

[Maxwell]

The guy was a birther. He wouldn't do well under more scrutiny. He had a pretty good performance in 2014, but he'll barely survive in his district again, let alone win a SENATE seat.

[SWE]

Mike Coffman's support for banning condoms can only help him in Colorado

[Mechaman]

HEY GUYS MIKE COFFMAN FUCKED ME IN THE ASS AND HE LIKED IT!!!!!!
!!

[Xing]

Coffman would be a strong recruit, there's little denying that. But would he be favored against Bennett from the start? No, Coffman is untested in statewide races, and there's no telling what would happen to him under that much scrutiny.

[moderatevoter]

Coffman has won statewide before. He was Treasurer and Secretary of State before running for Congress.

[coloradocowboi]

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

Oh no! Mark Scheffel, look out! If there is one thing Bennet fears, it has got to be archconservatives from swing-voter rich Douglas Co.

I'm sorry, but once again you are all on crack. The GOP bench in CO is thin. Joke all you want about Coffman and buttsecks, but the guy has never been held to the kind of media scrutiny a Senate campaign would bring.

I have posted like seven times here, and every time it is to say the same thing. But here we go again.

Cory Gardner won Colorado by 2.5 points in a year that was really something special for Republicans. Yes, voter turnout was higher in CO than the nation as a whole, but it was still lower than a Presidential year. Gardner, the GOP's star recruit, would have gone down hard in 2012. He very well might have lost in 2010 as well. So, he really did just get lucky. He ran in the right year. Mike Coffman will not be doing that. He'll be running with Presidential level turnout, when Latinos and gays and college students make up a larger portion of the electorate.

Speaking of turnout, Coffman won Adams Co. this time around, when he lost it in 2012. Why? Because Adams Co. had some of the lowest voter turnout it has seen in decades. It is a reliably blue county that barely went for Udall and Hick, and even voted against its own district attorney for AG. Democrats in AdamsCo stayed home because the central party was too moderate on economic issues, and too left on social issues, and its a blue collar county. Something similar happened in Pueblo. However, there is no reason to believe that this will happen again. In fact, a Clinton campaign will probably appeal to working class Latinos even more than Obama or Hickenlooper does and give Bennet coattails.

Also, Michael Bennet is a better candidate than Mark Udall. Yes, he isn't as handsome or charming, but he is a smarter politician and more moderate. Also, he doesn't need to be handsome or charming against Mike Coffman, because Coffman is neither. Cory Gardner looks like the high school quarterback all grown up, has a lovely family, and is just a likable guy. Coffman looks like the murderer played by Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones," lives miles away from his wife (gay buttsecks rumors here?), and is frigid and weird. He easily lost every debate he had against Romanoff, but benefited from a general anger towards Democrats and low turnout in Adams Co. I am not even sure he will win his congressional seat next year, to be honest, with Morgan Carroll in the race.

Finally, Coffman has never been the subject of media scrutiny. In fact, the Denver Post has covered for his ass multiple times, and the cable networks never really paid attention to him. He is a birther, a flip flopper on immigration, a serial misspeaker, and I just don't see how he will make a favorable impression when the cameras are turned on him. Nominating this guy would be a huuuuuuge mistake for the Republican Party. If he or his wife (who is equally untalented and camera-awkward) is the nominee, I would move this to Likely Dem.

Now, on the other hand, there are a few possibilities for strong GOP candidates, but they might not be palatable to the COGOP's far-right primary electorate. If they want to move the needle and make this a toss up in a presidential year they need: A. a woman, B. or a Latino, C. or both Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff. They need someone who cuts a moderate profile and keeps their mouth shut about abortion and gay rights. And they need someone who is as camera ready as Conman Cory. These people exist, but I doubt they get nominated.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

Now, on the other hand, there are a few possibilities for strong GOP candidates, but they might not be palatable to the COGOP's far-right primary electorate. If they want to move the needle and make this a toss up in a presidential year they need: A. a woman, B. or a Latino, C. or both Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff. They need someone who cuts a moderate profile and keeps their mouth shut about abortion and gay rights. And they need someone who is as camera ready as Conman Cory. These people exist, but I doubt they get nominated.

Who are you thinking of in particular?

The CW is that the field consists of the below (listed in no particular order), so if you know people beyond this list, defintely interested to hear the names:

Mike Coffman
Ken Buck
Cynthia Coffman
Scott Tipton
Scott Gessler
Walker Stapleton
Mark Scheffel

[coloradocowboi]

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

Now, on the other hand, there are a few possibilities for strong GOP candidates, but they might not be palatable to the COGOP's far-right primary electorate. If they want to move the needle and make this a toss up in a presidential year they need: A. a woman, B. or a Latino, C. or both Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff. They need someone who cuts a moderate profile and keeps their mouth shut about abortion and gay rights. And they need someone who is as camera ready as Conman Cory. These people exist, but I doubt they get nominated.

Who are you thinking of in particular?

The CW is that the field consists of the below (listed in no particular order), so if you know people beyond this list, defintely interested to hear the names:

Mike Coffman
Ken Buck
Cynthia Coffman
Scott Tipton
Scott Gessler
Walker Stapleton
Mark Scheffel

None of those people except maybe Cindy or Stapleton could win. They all start off as underdogs.

Coffman 1--I've already gone over why he is a bad idea
C2 aka Cindy--Not exactly the sharpest bulb. She could win. But she would be an underdog unless 2016 is a GOP favored year, which it just doesn't look to be. Higher voter turnout would bury her. Also, people forget she outspent her opponent 20:1 last election. That won't happen with Bennet.
Scheffel--He's a nobody from CO's most conservative major county. A rightwing white male will lose CO under all circumstances in 2016, the electorate is too polarized and the precious votes in the middle are easily spooked.
This is also why Tipton is a bad idea, although he is more moderate. He won't run anyway. He is doing well in a nominally competitive district. He can stay there as long as he likes.
Scott Gessler and Ken Buck are even worse. One is known for corruption scandals and intimidating Mexican-American voters, while the other is known as being pro-life with no exceptions and thinking gay people are sick. They would be the worst ideas of all, because they could put CD 3 and 6 in jeopardy and hurt the GOP statewide.
Stapleton is also a wet blanket, but he has a ton of money and flip flops all the time. He is like the fat Cory Gardner. So, he could feasibly win. I still don't think he has Gardner's intelligence or charm though.

The best bet would be Jane Norton. She's a woman, a moderate, and can raise a ton of cash. She will never be nominated though. State senators/reps like Clarice Navarro-Ratzlaff, Ellen Roberts, Jeanne (sp?) White, and even ex-rep BJ Nikkel would have the cash and name-recognition disadvantage, but in the right climate could also make this race very competitive. None of them, I'm afraid, could clear the ridiculous conservative litmus test to get out of the primary unless the Tea Party vote was severely fractured. So, I'd write the GOP off on this race. It's fool's gold for them. They are gonna nominate a boring, old white guy a la Mitt Romney and then be shocked when he fails to win women or Latino voters.

The GOP has got to get with the times. Their voter base is dying out, and this weird propagandistic American exceptionalism that disenfrachises gays and people of color is going to destroy them. If they nominated moderate women they would probably win every election in Colorado, but instead they trot out Both ways Bob and then are shocked that he loses. I'm more shocked he ever even came close. He is out of touch. Most of them are. And it's only going to be harder and harder for them to win if they keep nominating people like that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike Bennett is prone to lose; it all depends on the candidates. But, dems dont necessarily need CO; Toomey, Portman, Ayotte, and FL open are Dem targets.

Its all about putting together 270 and four voted necessary for Dem majority