2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Under vote of Latinos in Vegas, anyways it was always gonna be a 51/49 Senate. Bayh entry into race deferred resources from FL and OH.

[smoltchanov]

Under vote of Latinos in Vegas, anyways it was always gonna be a 51/49 Senate. Bayh entry into race deferred resources from FL and OH.

There may be many explanations. But essentially Democrats have no room for errors now: they must win 4 out of 5 (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire) AND hold Nevada (or lose it and win all 5) - that will not be simple task...

[Figueira]

I don't feel like doing a map right now, but:

Safe D: CA, WA, OR, CT, NY, VT, MD, HI
Likely D: CO, IL, WI
Lean D: NH, PA
Tossup (Tilt D): NV, IN
Tossup (Tilt R): NC, FL
Lean R: AZ, MO
Likely R: OH, LA, IA, GA
Safe R: ND, SD, AK, ID, UT, SC, AL, OK, AR, KY, KS

[Figueira]

Under vote of Latinos in Vegas, anyways it was always gonna be a 51/49 Senate. Bayh entry into race deferred resources from FL and OH.

There may be many explanations. But essentially Democrats have no room for errors now: they must win 4 out of 5 (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire) AND hold Nevada (or lose it and win all 5) - that will not be simple task...

And Republicans have no room for errors either, in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, or Arizona.

A lot of this depends on the presidential race though; I think it's equally possible that the race will tighten, or that it will widen again and result in a Clinton semi-landslide dragging a few Republican Senators down. The Republican Senate candidates can distance themselves from Trump, but only up to a point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook PVI has Dems winning the electoral college Pa, Iowa, NV, CO and NH without OH or VA.

Remember Romney was at the same point but Sandy wiped the GOP out.

[smoltchanov]

I don't feel like doing a map right now, but:

Safe D: CA, WA, OR, CT, NY, VT, MD, HI
Likely D: CO, IL, WI
Lean D: NH, PA
Tossup (Tilt D): NV, IN
Tossup (Tilt R): NC, FL
Lean R: AZ, MO
Likely R: OH, LA, IA, GA
Safe R: ND, SD, AK, ID, UT, SC, AL, OK, AR, KY, KS

Very close to my, but Illinois wasn't polled of late at all, and i won't be too surprized if it's only Lean D...

[Xing]

CO: Likely D -> Safe D
GA: Safe R > Likely R (out of an abundance of caution)
IN: Toss-Up -> Lean D
NH: Toss-UP - > Lean D
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean R

FL: Toss-Up -> Lean R (*sigh*)
GA: Likely R -> Safe R
NV: Lean D -> Likely D
NC: Lean R -> Toss-Up
OH: Lean R -> Likely R

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 5(IL, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 2(FL, IN)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

I'll call Tossups if I must: IL: Kirk, MO: Kander, NV: Heck, NH: Ayotte, PA: McGinty

That's D+1 in tossups. D+3 is the projected final result there. That gives us a 51-49 R Senate.

[Young Conservative]

IN:  Tossup
FL:  Lean R
NC: Lean R
OH: Likely R
AZ: Safe R
NH: Tossup
Illinois: Lean D
Wisconsin: tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The disappointments were Strickland of course and Johnson who will lose.

Pa, NH, IL and NV were to stay with Dems

[ElectionsGuy]

IN*: Lean D --> Toss-Up
OH: Lean R --> Likely R
PA: Lean D --> Toss-Up

*As the state is strict on polling (yet another reason why the state is terrible) I have a feeling that there's not going to be many more polls between now and election day. Therefore I have to anticipate what's going to happen based on the fundamentals, and I think its going to end up super close in the end. Bayh's lead right now seems to be mostly based around name recognition and popularity from the past. If Young can convincingly connect him to Clinton, he can get the job done.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV goes from Leans D to Tilts GOP. Bayh, Duckworth, Hassan, McGinty & Feingold should win

[smoltchanov]

NV goes from Leans D to Tilts GOP. Bayh, Duckworth, Hassan, McGinty & Feingold should win

No more hopes for Murphy, Stricland, Kinder and Ross? Only 4 weeks ago Democrats tried to prove to me that they will win all of them (and, may be, Georgia and Arizona too), while keeping Nevada. Is it impossible to guess that 4 weeks for now Bayh, Hassan and McGinty (at least) will follow their path?))))

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

La has a jungled primary.  However, it's tough for women being elected in NV statewide. Shelly Berkeley and Sharon Angle and Dina Titus chose not to run and she lost to Gibbons for Gov.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

To win the Senate, Democrats need to win Illinois and Wisconsin and then three of Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Indiana.  I just don't see that happening, so the Senate is Tilt R at this point.

[Heisenberg]

>90%: Titanium
>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

Changes:
AK: Safe R -> Likely R
AZ: Lean R -> Likely R
FL: Tilt R -> Lean R
IL: Toss-up -> Tilt D
IN: Lean D -> Toss-up
IA: Likely R -> Safe R
MD: Likely D -> Safe D
NV: Toss-up -> Tilt R

Quick edit: Moving Missouri to Tilt R after that poll came out showing him behind. I'll need to see another poll showing Kander ahead to move it to toss-up, but it is very clear that Blunt is in trouble.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

MO: Lean R -> Tossup
NC: Lean R -> Tossup

IN: Lean D -> Tossup
NH: Lean D -> Tossup
FL: Tossup -> Lean R
AZ: Lean R -> Likely R
OH: Lean R -> Likely R

D+4 overall.

[Heisenberg]

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
>20%: Tilt
Green: Toss-up

Changes:


NC: Tilt R -> Toss-up
OH: Likely R -> Safe R
PA: Toss-up -> Tilt D
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With about a month to go, my ratings are at this:

Democrats 48 (2 I/D)
Republicans 48
Toss-Ups 4

Here's where they started back in July 2015 (while I discussed/issued unofficial ratings for the races before this date, they were not officially rated as I did not have my google doc launched before July 2015):

Republicans 51
Democrats 47 (2 I/D)
Toss-Ups 2

A year and three months (or so) changes things. Republicans started this cycle with 51 seats leaning their way. But they squandered that early advantage and are now fighting tooth and nail to capture 3 of the 4 toss-ups and secure a real majority, 51-49.


--------------------

Here's the 5 races most worth your time among the non toss-ups, in no particular order:

1. Alaska - A recent poll shows Murkowski up only 8 points, with Libertarian Candidate Joe Miller in 2nd. While I still consider Murkowski the clear favorite, this could be a sleeper, especially if Hillary overperforms Generic D in the state. If Democratic Candidate Ray Metcalfe can be dragged up to 25% or so by Hillary coattails, there's a chance that Murkowski could be dragged down enough for Joe Miller to squeak by and become the first libertarian U.S. senator in our nation's history. That being said, Miller will caucus with the GOP, so the seat is Safe R either way.

2. Louisiana - While David Duke and Rob Maness are going nowhere, a D vs. D runoff remains a distinct possibility since many black voters remain undecided between Campbell and Fayard. If they split about even, watch out. The only way this race goes to the Dems if it's a D vs. R runoff is if one side or the other has a real majority (51-49 not counting the VP) already, and even then it would still be a pretty uphill fight.

3. Illinois - Tammy Duckworth appears to be ready to be the Mark Warner of the year. After not getting any non-internals for the race for many months, two polls come out, showing her at pathetic leads of 41%-36% and 41%-39%. If she's really as inevitable as people seem to think, she really shouldn't be polling in the low 40s. I see anything between a 1 point win and a 10 point win as perfectly realistic, and there is some room for Kirk to pull out a remarkable win.

4. Indiana - Evan Bayh seems to have something of an edge, but IN's no-robocalls law makes polling there hard to come by. Anything could happen on election night.

5. Missouri - Jason Kander is actually ahead of Roy Blunt if you believe a recent Emerson College Poll. While Kander is a B-lister, he's held up well despite a deluge of polished ads from the incumbent. With Koster potentially running away with the governors race, Kander could be pulled across the line with a row officer or two. Blunt's hopes lie in the fact that Trump remains well ahead in the state.

While Rubio isn't pulling away enough for Florida to be rated more than leaning toward him at this point in time, Dems are sending signals through funding that they are giving up on the race. The R's are going nowhere in Wisconsin and Colorado, and once-promising D candidates are collapsing in Ohio and Arizona.

[ElectionsGuy]

GA: Likely R --> Safe R
IL: Lean D --> Likely D
NC: Lean R --> Toss-Up

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

[morgieb]

[windjammer]

I totally agree with that!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With a Bayh collapse looking likely, I'm reasonably confident that we're not getting anything worse for R's than 51-49 D. The 51 scenario is Dems picking up IL, WI, NH, PA, and NC, and holding NV. I still have MO as a Toss-Up, but ultimately I think Blunt should be OK. The fact that Remington was finally willing to release a senate poll this week after hiding it previously because they didn't like the data has to be a good sign for Blunt. There's also a perfectly reasonable Manchin Majority Scenario - just hack off NC from the 51 scenario. To get a majority, Republicans will need to win one of NH/PA/NV/WI. It honestly looks like NH might be the easiest of the four.

[morgieb]

I'd swap Pennsylvania and Indiana around, but otherwise I'm still sticking to this.