2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[NewYorkExpress]

My Turn;

Alabama; Safe R I'll be impressed if Democrats even find an opponent to face Shelby

Alaska; Safe R Even if Lisa Murkowski retires, or loses her primary, I find it hard to see the GOP losing here. If Murkowski does draw a significant Democratic opponent keep an eye on Hollis French, Andy Josephson and Dennis "Johnny" Ellis Egan (Mark Begich also could win, but I'd rather see him run for Governor in 2018 against Bill Walker)

Arizona Tilt D Despite John McCain's unpopularity, he probably is the GOP's best chance of holding the seat If he is defeated in a primary, Democrats chances shoot up. Watch out for Matt Salmon, David Schweikert and Jan Brewer if a primary is to be had...all three look formidable but can easily be attacked.

Arkansas Safe R Even in the unlikely event that Hillary wins Arkansas, I find it unlikely that John Boozman would lose, as ticket splitting here likely would favor Hillary, and not down ballot candidates.

California Safe D Rocky Chavez is a better candidate than Elizabeth Emken by miles...too bad for the GOP, California is so Democratic. (Something tells me running against Congressmen Scott Peters/Juan Vargas, or State Senator Marty Block instead).

Colorado Tilt R Michael Bennett will almost certainly be facing a stronger candidate than Jane Norton or Ken Buck, especially if the GOP nominates Cynthia Coffman, Walker Stapleton, or Mark Scheffel.

ConnecticutSafe D

Florida Lean R Patrick Murphy's a solid nominee, but he's the underdog to almost every possible nominee. To win he'll have to attack a lot, and hope that neither Bush or Rubio is atop the GOP ticket (VP is irrelevant). It's doable, but without having idea of which Republican he's facing, it's too early to go any further.

Georgia Likely R
The only reason isn't safe is because it's a Presidential Year. This should be moved there by Labor Day 2015, if all goes on it's current track.

Hawaii Safe D

Idaho Safe R

Illinois Likely D Kirk isn't quite toast (He should beat Pat Quinn, for example), but he's deep trouble, and arguably is in worse position than, say Ron Johnson because of the lean of his state.

Indiana Likely R It's not impossible to see Democrats gain the seat-Brad Ellsworth comes to mind, but it's unlikely at best.

Iowa Likely R Believe it or not, Chuck Grassley is beatable. It's just that the most likely candidates to defeat him-Chet Culver and Tom Vilsack, probably won't run.

Kansas Safe R

Kentucky Likely R While the GOP's chances take a hit if Rand Paul is not the nominee, it's not going to be a big one... and the odds of having Paul atop the ballot isn't that bad.

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D

Missouri Safe R The Riots in Ferguson not only sparked a discussion about race, it locked this seat up for the GOP.

Nevada Lean D Like Jim Bunning a decade ago, the Democrats odds of holding this seat go up with Harry Reid's exit. The math is now simple, if Brian Sandoval runs and survives the primary, he wins, any other Republican, Democrats win.

Nevada Tossup This likely will be the closest race in 2010...unless Ayotte is on the ticket, where she could lose New Hampshire as VP and win as Senator (or vice versa).

New York Safe D

North Carolina Tossup The big problem with Richard Burr is that he's an unknown, even after six years in service, meaning this race likely will be close no matter what the climate is like.

North Dakota Safe R

Ohio Tilt R Rob Portman will likely face a stiff primary challenge, and assuming he survives that he'll be a slim favorite over his opposition. If he loses the primary, it's a likely win for Democrats.

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Likely R Pat Toomey is much stronger than people are giving him credit for, and should win with relative ease (though a matchup with Michael Nutter would be exciting).

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R (Wonder how Thune Daschle rematch would look)

Utah Safe R

Vermont Safe D

Washington Likely D If Dave Reichert runs and makes the top two, this could be close, otherwise it'll be a snoozer).

Wisconsin Lean D With Feingold running, Democrats are now favorites...Wisconsin is not Illinois, however and that means there is a minimal amount of room for Johnson to slip away

[NewYorkExpress]

My Ratings;

Alabama Safe R (At least Shelby is getting an opponent this year)

Alaska Safe R (Murkowski is fine-2010 proved that)

Arizona Tossup (We probably won't know how competitive this race actually is until after the GOP primary)

Arkansas Safe R

California Safe D (Not really looking forward to much money will be sucked into the the Harris-Sanchez battle)

Colorado Tossup (though Bennett should eventually pull away)

Connecticut Safe D

Florida Tossup (though Murphy is a much stronger candidate than Grayson0

Georgia Safe R

Hawaii Safe D

Idaho Safe R

Illinois Likely D (Single most likely seat to flip, maybe can be moved to Safe D if HD by Christmas if the race stays on it's current course)

Indiana (Tossup with Stutzman, lean R with Young and Holcomb)

Iowa Safe R

Kansas Safe R

Kentucky Safe R

Louisiana Safe R

Maryland Safe D (Like California, I am not looking forward to the money being spent on the Edwards-Van Holien battle.

Missouri Likely R (Kander is a solid recruit, but Missouri is long gone in a Presidential year
year for any Democrat)

Nevada Tossup (Most likely GOP pickup...but their best chance was for Brian Sandoval to run and survive a primary)

New Hampshire Tossup (Even if Maggie Hassan runs, Kelly Hassan shouldn't be underestimated...at the same time, if Hassan doesn't run, watch out for Paul Hodes or or Ann McLane Kuster as late entrants).

New York Safe D (Republicans probably wish Pataki was running here)

North Carolina Tossup (Burr is anonymous, and should pull away here)

North Dakota Safe R

Ohio (Tossup with Strickland, Safe R with Satterfield)

Oklahoma Safe R

Oregon Safe D

Pennsylvania Tossup (Sestak isn't the strongest possible nominee-but Toomey starts in worse position than Portman)

South Carolina Safe R

South Dakota Safe R

Utah Safe R

Vermont Safe D

Washington Safe D

Wisconsin Lean D (Feingold probably isn't even the Democrats strongest nominee... that's how screwed Ron Johnson is)

[NewYorkExpress]

New York express had the right idea

AZ we dont know how competetive this race will be
CO Lean D
FL LeanD
IL Lean D
NV tossup
NH Lean R until someone jumps in
NC tossup
OH tossup-With Strickland in
Pa hard to put rating on this; but Sestak is underperforming, but can be considered a tossup
WI Lean D

Its hard to predict how many seats Dems will net, but Senate will flip as long as Clinton wins

That's a first, isn't it?

[NewYorkExpress]

My Ratings;

Likely D;

Illinois (Kirk is a horrible fit for the state, and Duckworth is one of the stronger D candidates

Lean D

Wisconsin (Feingold isn't the strongest candidate-that's probably Ron Kind, but he should be enough to beat an unpopular incumbent in a purple state)

California (Until after the jungle primary)

Colorado (Bennett appears to be a slightly stronger incumbent, though this could be a tossup soon)

Tossups

Florida (Should be obvious why)

Ohio (I think Portman holds the seat, but this will be close all the through in a Presidential race)

Nevada (The GOP's best chance to gain a seat)

New Hampshire (Hassan's entry changed the dynamics enough to make this a tossup -and conversely put the Governor's race at Lean R)

Lean R

Pennsylvania (Toomey is a stronger incumbent than Portman)

Arizona (McCain isn't unbeatable, he's got a real Democrat facing him)

Likely R

Alaska (See 2010)

Indiana (Baron Hill isn't that weak a candidate....)

Missouri (Blunt is unpopular, but he likely will be saved by how far right his state is).

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama- Safe R

Alaska- Safe R

Arizona- Tossup (With McCain), Likely D ( With Ward) (Ann Kirkpatrick is running a solid campaign, but a lot depends on whether McCain loses the primary and whether Trump carries the state in November)

Arkansas- Safe R

California (Safe D) Likely Harris (Kamala Harris starts out as the favorite post-primary.)

Colorado- Safe D

Connecticut- Safe D

Florida- Tossup (even with Rubio running for the GOP)

Georgia- Safe R

Hawaii- Safe D

Idaho- Safe R

Illinois- Safe D (Kirk isn't a fit for his state in a Presidential year)

Indiana- Likely R (Young is stronger than his primary opponents, but he showed little organization during the primary, and that may cost him dearly)

Iowa- Lean R (Grassley is beatable, but it'll take a lot of attack ads to win here. Judge is however, a solid candidate so far)

Kansas- Safe R

Louisiana- Runoff (Safe R)

Maryland- (Safe D)

Nevada-Tossup

New Hampshire- Tossup (Unlike "AngryNewHampshireWomen"Volunteer, I recognize Ayotte isn't out of it by any stretch.)

New York- Safe D (Congratulations Chuck Schumer)

North Carolina- Tossup (Polls show this one to be close, and Hillary is contesting the state)

Ohio- Tossup (The definition of a tossup race)

Oklahoma- Safe R

Oregon- Safe D

Pennsylvania- Lean R (Toomey's facing a slightly weaker opponent, but he can't afford to relax)

South Carolina- Safe R

South Dakota- Safe R (at least Democrats found someone to run against Thune this time around)

Utah- Safe R

Vermont- Safe D

Washington- Safe D

Wisconsin- Safe D (See Illinois , plus Johnson hasn't even tried to moderate)