2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

Ratings:

Prediction:

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R:

Alabama
Alaska (Likely R if there are primary shenanigans and Mark Begich joins in)
Arkansas
Idaho
Iowa
Kentucky (even if Paul is denied re-election, federal elections are heavily Republican)
Kansas
Louisiana (Dems have no bench + Jungle Primary)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah (Will move to Likely R if/when Matheson runs)

Likely R:

Georgia (only because its Georgia)
Indiana (like all Indiana races, dems have an outside chance of winning if there are too many shenanigans)
Missouri (Blunt is not as vulnerable as people seem to think)

Lean R:

Arizona (He'll likely survive a primary, but he's weaker than he ever was before)
New Hampshire (Toss-Up if/when Hassan runs)
North Carolina (no matter the nominee)
Ohio (no matter the nominee)

Toss-Up:

Florida (Lean R if Grayson is the nominee)
Illinois (This is on the verge of being Lean D)
Nevada (R's have a decent bench since the scored big in 2014)
Pennsylvania (despite Toomey's supposed early advantage, its still Pennsylvania)
Wisconsin (Will move to Lean D if/when Feingold announces)

Lean D:

Colorado (Toss-Up if Mike Coffman is the nominee)

Safe D:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon (Likely D if Wyden retires, but Oregon R's are incredibly weak)
Vermont
Washington

[ElectionsGuy]

Same as before except Wisconsin moved to Lean D.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Sabato says that Wisconsin leans Democratic, then Republicans can kiss 'their' Senate seat in Wisconsin goodbye.

Arkansas was Lean D at this point before 2014. Your point?

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R:

Alabama
Alaska (Likely R if there are primary shenanigans and Mark Begich joins in)
Arkansas
Idaho
Iowa (Its Grassely, so yeah)
Kentucky (even if Paul is denied re-election, federal elections are heavily Republican)
Kansas
Louisiana (Dems have no bench + Jungle Primary)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah (Will move to Likely R if/when Matheson runs)

Likely R:

Georgia (only because its Georgia)
Indiana (like all Indiana races, dems have an outside chance of winning if there are too many shenanigans + open race)
Missouri (Blunt is not as vulnerable as people seem to think)

Lean R:

Arizona (He'll likely survive a primary, but he's weaker than he ever was before)
New Hampshire (Toss-Up if/when Hassan runs)
North Carolina (no matter the nominee)
Ohio (no matter the nominee Toss-Up if/when Strickland runs)
Pennsylvania (Yeah, Toomey is looking good starting out)

Toss-Up:

Florida (Lean R if Grayson is the nominee)
Illinois (This is on the verge of being Lean D)
Nevada (R's have a decent bench since the scored big in 2014)
Pennsylvania (despite Toomey's supposed early advantage, its still Pennsylvania)
Wisconsin (Will move to Lean D if/when Feingold announces)

Lean D:

Colorado (Toss-Up if Mike Coffman is the nominee)
Wisconsin

Safe D:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon (Likely D if Wyden retires, but Oregon R's are incredibly weak Even if Wyden retires)
Vermont
Washington

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe R:

Alabama
Alaska (Likely R if there are primary shenanigans and Mark Begich joins in)
Arkansas
Idaho
Iowa (Its Grassely, so yeah)
Kentucky (even if Paul is denied re-election, federal elections are heavily Republican)
Kansas
Louisiana (Dems have no bench + Jungle Primary)
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah (Will move to Likely R if/when Matheson runs)

Likely R:

Georgia (only because its Georgia)
Indiana (like all Indiana races, dems have an outside chance of winning if there are too many shenanigans + open race)
Missouri (Blunt is not as vulnerable as people seem to think)
North Carolina (top tier candidates all taking a pass)

Lean R:

Arizona (He'll likely survive a primary, but he's weaker than he ever was before)
New Hampshire (Toss-Up if/when Hassan runs)
North Carolina (no matter the nominee)
Ohio (no matter the nominee Toss-Up if/when Strickland runs)
Pennsylvania (Yeah, Toomey is looking good starting out)

Toss-Up:

Florida (Lean R if Grayson is the nominee)
Illinois (This is on the verge of being Lean D)
Nevada (R's have a decent bench since the scored big in 2014 Heck is the best possible candidate)
Ohio (Strickland in)
Pennsylvania (despite Toomey's supposed early advantage, its still Pennsylvania)
Wisconsin (Will move to Lean D if/when Feingold announces)

Lean D:

Colorado (Toss-Up if Mike Coffman is the nominee)
Illinois
Wisconsin

Safe D:

California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon (Likely D if Wyden retires, but Oregon R's are incredibly weak Even if Wyden retires)
Vermont
Washington

[ElectionsGuy]

So, I realized something today that I probably should've known for a while and feel stupid for: Georgia has a runoff. I've said it was likely R for a while now because despite Isakson being somebody who nobody cares about but always wins re-election, its Georgia and the presidential race would be closely correlated to it, and the presidential race is Likely R. Well, Georgia has a runoff for non-presidential races. So Safe R, because the D's will not be able to get >50%.

And I decided to move North Carolina back to Lean R, I think it was foolish to move it to Likely R actually. Ohio is a toss-up but its a tilt R toss-up.

Edit: NH goes to a toss-up with Hassan now in the race.

Democratic Path to the Senate

Defending seats:

CO
NV

They need to pickup:

IL
WI

2-5 (depends on defending Senate seats and the presidential race, assumes they pickup IL and WI) of these 6:

AZ
FL
NH
NC
OH
PA

Extra pickups (big wave situation)?

IN
MO

[ElectionsGuy]

Georgia will turn purple at some point during the next few cycles. It could be 2016 if Cruz is the GOP Nominee.

How do you know?

The GA Senate race won't go to a runoff, 99% sure of that.

It wasn't likely to. But the likely option is when a race is almost assured but there's 1 or more outside circumstances that could turn the race the other way. For Georgia, it was the small possibility that the presidential and senate race becoming so close together (and the presidential race being very close in Georgia) that it would take down Isakson. Well, in the case of of having a runoff, it saves him from a situation like 2008.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm curious as to why Indiana is always on the Lean R list. Even Missouri I can understand, but I don't see much of an explanation of why the Republican presidential nominee would perform so much better than the Senate nominee.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm curious as to why Indiana is always on the Lean R list. Even Missouri I can understand, but I don't see much of an explanation of why the Republican presidential nominee would perform so much better than the Senate nominee.

One word - Stutzman. Who may be next Akin or Mourdock...

Why would Stutzman be an Akin or Mourdock?

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm curious as to why Indiana is always on the Lean R list. Even Missouri I can understand, but I don't see much of an explanation of why the Republican presidential nominee would perform so much better than the Senate nominee.

One word - Stutzman. Who may be next Akin or Mourdock...

Why would Stutzman be an Akin or Mourdock?

Because he is a "tea-party darling" (the type of politician i hate most). And they are prone of Akin-style gaffes..

OK. I doubt that it will happen again, I think Stutzman is smarter than that. But the main problem here is we're presuming something will happen that hasn't happened yet. Unless there's something objectively less electable about that person, we shouldn't change the ratings just because we think something will happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

A D+2 state with a Republican incumbent is Safe D, but an open seat in an R+11 state is a toss-up?

[ElectionsGuy]

There you go again. The Pubs have a better chance of holding Wisconsin and Illinois than NH. Where is that laugh track you just linked to?  

Yes, IL and WI are much more Republican-friendly states than NH. Ayotte's at 42% right now, that's not good for an incumbent Republican in a blue state where most undecideds are Democrats. Also keep in mind that Carol Shea-Porter is going to Blanche Frank Guinta in the 1st district while Hillary Clinton is going to crush the Republican nominee, that won't help Ayotte in her reelection bid. I just don't think that enough women will split their ticket and support Clinton/Kuster or Shea-Porter/Ayotte. Hassan is quite beloved in NH, more so than Ayotte - especially among female voters. This would have been Leans/Likely R with Pappas, no doubt about it, but Hassan will be the nominee, so...

Come on...

Last Illinois Senate race... 11 point D margin vs 3 point D margin for NH
Last presidential race... 17 point D margin vs 6 point D margin for NH

Its ridiculous and you know it. Please stop before I ignore you.

[ElectionsGuy]

Come on...

Last Illinois Senate race... 11 point D margin vs 3 point D margin for NH
Last presidential race... 17 point D margin vs 6 point D margin for NH

Its ridiculous and you know it. Please stop before I ignore you.

Republicans often come close to winning in NH but they never actually win there. Since 2010, Republicans have won six statewide races in WI, five statewide races in IL but just one statewide race in NH. And yet this forum seems to assume that NH is a much more competitive state than WI because reasons.

New Hampshire only has one statewide elected office - the Governor. Kind of unfair to judge it that way. Johnson is sitting at low 40's, and in the last poll he was at 38. Feingold is at nearly a majority in  all the polls conducted so far. How does Johnson have a better chance of winning than Ayotte?

[ElectionsGuy]

December Update:

 - NH still a toss-up, but predicting Hassan victory.
 - NV still a toss-up, but predicting Cortez-Matso victory.
 - PA now a toss-up, but still predicting Toomey victory.

Reasoning:

NH: Despite NH being a near toss-up in every poll, Ayotte is below 45% in nearly all polls conducted against Hassan, a somewhat weak position. There's reason to believe that the undecideds in New Hampshire are generally Democratic leaning, that's based on past presidential and Senate results. So Hassan is slightly favored at this point to take it

NV: With Trump increasingly likely to be the nominee, I see Democrats winning Nevada (with a large Latino vote) as increasingly likely. Joe Heck is a very strong contender, and polls are varied, but the fundamentals point towards Democrats winning this one.

PA: We know by election day that the polls that have Toomey up double digits won't last. This will be a competitive race. Today's polarization and elections basically guarantee the race won't be a blowout for either party (case in point - Wolf vs Corbett was only a 10 point margin despite some polls polls showing upwards of 20 points). I'm still predicting a Toomey win, nontheless.

Some other comments...

FL: Don't know who the Republican nominee will be for months, most Republicans don't know either. This will be a toss-up and I will default to predicting a Republican win here (even with Murphy) until the nomination is settled

AZ: A poll just came out with McCain being over 50%, even though the fundamentals suggest McCain is in trouble. Right now I have it at 'Lean R', but if Kirkpatrick shows no sign of improvement, I will move it to 'Likely R'.

NC: Even though Burr has consistently led, a competitive presidential and governor race will probably limit Burr's margin, and I suspect most of the undecideds thus far are Democrats. So while I would want to move it to 'Likely R', I don't think its appropriate yet.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

Then why rate the race "Lean R"?

Because McCain has an advantage but his approvals, Kirkpatrick being a strong and electable challenger, and Trump being the possible nominee all lead to a supposed close race. The fundamentals are far more important than the polls right now.

Same way I rate Colorado as Lean D, I don't expect a Republican to win Bennet's seat, but it could happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona: Lean R --> Toss-Up
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Nevada: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Florida stays Toss-Up even if Rubio runs for re-election.

[ElectionsGuy]

CO: Lean D --> Likely D
PA: Toss-Up --> Lean R
WI: Lean D --> Likely D

We need polling data on Illinois. If Kirk is down and outside the margin of error in the next poll, I'll move Illinois to Likely D. Nearly impossible to overcome the impending double digit Trump loss in that state.

From most likely to flip to least likely to flip:

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. New Hampshire
4. Florida
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Pennsylvania
8. Nevada
9. North Carolina
10. Colorado
11. Missouri
12. Iowa
13. Indiana

[ElectionsGuy]

NV: Lean D --> Toss-Up
IN: Likely R --> Lean R (for now)
MO: Likely R --> Lean R

Still waiting on Illinois polling. Kind of stuck on Arizona whether I should be saying Toss-Up or Lean R, but I've seen two polls with Kirkpatrick leading so...

From most likely to flip to least likely to flip:

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. New Hampshire
4. Florida
5. Ohio
6. Nevada
7. Arizona
8. Pennsylvania
9. Indiana
10. Missouri
11. North Carolina
12. Colorado
13. Iowa

[ElectionsGuy]

IN: Lean R --> Toss-Up

1. Wisconsin
2. Illinois
3. Indiana
4. New Hampshire
5. Florida
6. Ohio
7. Nevada
8. Arizona
9. Pennsylvania
10. Missouri
11. North Carolina
12. Colorado
13. Iowa

This is a officially starting to look like a disaster map for Republicans.

8/2/16 Update

PA: Lean R --> Toss-Up

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a officially starting to look like a disaster map for Republicans.

I wouldn't say that just yet. If they can hold the lean states on your map (NC/MO/PA) and then win FL/OH/AZ (where they're slightly favored), then they need to win either Nevada or one of IL/WI/IN. Difficult, but not impossible. The only state where they are doomed is NH.

Still they need way more toss-ups than the Democrats do. If one of Arizona, Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania falls, they're done. All the Democrats need is IL + WI + IN + NH with Hillary as president and they've got it. And if Ward wins the primary in Arizona or something bad happens in Missouri or North Carolina, forget about it.

[ElectionsGuy]

GA: Safe R --> Likely R
NH: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Still waiting on Indiana polling, if Indiana confirms a large Bayh lead, the Senate is looking like a near lock for Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

CO: Likely D --> Safe D
IN: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Senate tipping point now at 'Lean D'.

[ElectionsGuy]

IN: Toss-Up --> Lean D

Senate tipping point now at 'Lean D'.

Reasonable map but NV is definitely lean D, and NC should be tossup.

'Definitely' Lean D? The presidential race in Nevada is closer than expected and all the polls from Nevada either have a tie race or Heck up 1 or 2, that's well within the margin of error so I don't feel comfortable with any lean, not to mention Heck is a strong candidate. With NC, only the NBC/WSJ had Ross up 2 and that was an outlier, the fundamentals of the race (NC's small political lean towards R's, his anonymous generic R reputation) point towards him.