2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

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My current ratings:

Likely R:
AK
AZ
IN
MO

Lean R:
NC
OH

Tilt R:
FL
NH
PA

Tilt D:
IL
NV
WI

Lean D:
CO

The rest are all safe, unless Grassley retires in Iowa.

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Safe R
-AL
-AR
-GA
-ID
-IA (Unless Grassley suddenly retires)
-KS
-KY
-LA
-ND
-OK
-SC
-SD
-UT

Likely R
-AK
-AZ
-IN
-MO

Lean R
-NC
-OH

Toss-up/Tilt R
-NH
-PA

Toss-up/Tilt D
-FL (With Murphy in, and Rubio, Atwater, and Bondi out, this is looking better and better for Democrats. Still extremely competitive, but since I'm making every race as least tilt R or D...)
-NV
-WI

Lean D
-CO
-IL

Likely D
None

Safe D
-CA
-CT
-HI
-MD
-NY
-OR
-VT
-WA

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Coffman would be a strong recruit, there's little denying that. But would he be favored against Bennett from the start? No, Coffman is untested in statewide races, and there's no telling what would happen to him under that much scrutiny.

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I'll update mine:

Pure toss-up:
-Florida

Tilt D:
-Nevada
-Wisconsin

Tilt R:
-New Hampshire
-Pennsylvania (I may move this to Lean R if Toomey is still polling strong in the coming months)

Lean D:
-Colorado
-Illinois

Lean R:
-Ohio (It Portman's doesn't poll better against Strickland in future polls, this will be moved to Tilt R or even Toss-up)

Likely D:
None

Likely R:
-Arizona (If McCain loses in the primary, this will be moved to Lean R or even Tilt R)
-Indiana
-Missouri
-North Carolina

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I'll update mine:

Pure toss-up:
-Florida

Tilt D:
-Nevada
-Wisconsin

Tilt R:
-New Hampshire
-Pennsylvania (I may move this to Lean R if Toomey is still polling strong in the coming months)

Lean D:
-Colorado
-Illinois

Lean R:
-Ohio (It Portman's doesn't poll better against Strickland in future polls, this will be moved to Tilt R or even Toss-up)

Likely D:
None

Likely R:
-Arizona (If McCain loses in the primary, this will be moved to Lean R or even Tilt R)
-Indiana
-Missouri
-North Carolina

To continue to say OH is L R and it isnt.

Strickland will win.

Sheesh, I can't say anything about the Ohio senate race without someone complaining. Right now, Portman is doing a great job at fundraising, and he's not unpopular. Hard not to see him as a slight favorite at this point, though as I've said, that could change.

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It's been a while since I've updated my predictions.

Likely D
None

Lean D
Colorado
Illinois
Wisconsin

Toss-up
Florida (Tilt R, thanks to Grayson)
Nevada (Tilt D)
New Hampshire (Pure toss-up)

Lean R
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Likely R
Arizona
Indiana
Louisiana (If Vitter loses this year's gubernatorial race to a Democrat, he can't be considered completely safe in this race)
Missouri

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I agree with Nyvin ratings but FL and may go GOP and OH will eventually be a tossup.

Eventually? I thought it already was? Isn't Strickland the greatest Demojuggernaut in the world who will surely beat Portman?

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Likely R
AZ
IN
MO
NC

Lean R
PA

Tilt R
OH

Pure toss-up
FL
NH

Tilt D
NV

Lean D
CO
IL
WI

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I'm amazed that people still think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain. AZ truly is the ultimate fool's gold state.

I don't think many people think Kirkpatrick can beat McCain.

Then why rate the race "Lean R"?

Same reason you rate the NH senate race as "Lean D", when we all know that Ayotte is doomed in utlra-super-dark-blue-more-Democratic-than-DC-and-San-Francisco-combined New Hampshire Vermont.

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PA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

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Indiana: Likely R -> Lean R

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Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

PA being Lean R is debatable, but Likely R just makes no sense.

I think Toomey will outperform Trump by about 7, and I have the PA Presidential race as Tilt R, so I think Toomey is strongly favored, right on the border of Lean R and Likely R.

Even if that's the case, is he really more likely to win than Bennet? Glenn is certainly a weaker candidate than McGinty, not that she's great.

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CO: Likely D -> Safe D
GA: Safe R > Likely R (out of an abundance of caution)
IN: Toss-Up -> Lean D
NH: Toss-UP - > Lean D
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean R

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CO: Likely D -> Safe D
GA: Safe R > Likely R (out of an abundance of caution)
IN: Toss-Up -> Lean D
NH: Toss-UP - > Lean D
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean R

FL: Toss-Up -> Lean R (*sigh*)
GA: Likely R -> Safe R
NV: Lean D -> Likely D
NC: Lean R -> Toss-Up
OH: Lean R -> Likely R

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Control of the Senate is still up in the balance, but Democrats are clearly favored, as Republicans need all four Toss-Ups.