2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

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pbrower2a, your ratings never cease to amuse us! The funny part is that you aren't even trolling A+!

Anyway, my ratings changes:

MO: Likely R --> Leans R (Blunt will be in big trouble if he doesn't step up his game.)
NC: Likely R --> Leans R (Assuming Heath Shuler gets the nomination)
IN: Likely R --> Leans R (This race is even more unpredictable than I've thought. A strong Democratic challenger will make it competitive.)

Updated map 4.0:

This is a nice map; very accurate.

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Lean Dem:

- Wisconsin
- Illinois
- Colorado

Tilt Dem:

- Nevada
- Florida
- Ohio

Tilt Rep:

- New Hampshire
- Arizona
- Pennsylvania

Lean Rep:

- Missouri
- North Carolina
- Indiana

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Updated map with some big changes:

>60%: Safe
>40%: Likely
>30%: Lean
Green: Toss-up

Why is NH more likely to flip than IL/OH/FL?

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Safe Democratic:

Washington
California
Oregon
Hawaii
New York
Vermont
Connecticut
Maryland
Illinois
Wisconsin

Lean Democratic:

Colorado
New Hampshire
Ohio
Florida

Tossup:

Pennsylvania
Indiana
Missouri
Louisiana
Arizona
Nevada

Lean Republican:

North Carolina

Safe Republican:

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
North Dakota
South Dakota
Kansas
Oklahoma
Iowa
Arkansas
Kentucky
South Carolina
Georgia
Alabama