2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Nyvin]

I'm fairly confident that the Democrats will hold Nevada and Colorado and then have a clean sweep of all 8 competitive seats in the east.    

Dem Pickups:  IA, IL, WI, OH, PA, NH, NC, FL

To go further on this, the Dems so far have outstanding candidates and also Hillary is almost guaranteed to bring a boost in turnout being the first female president.   Also Hillary is a much better fit for all the midwestern states that are up this time than Obama was.   

Russ Feingold is probably my favorite candidate up in Wisconsin and he's still very popular unlike Ron Johnson who isn't well liked.

Patrick Murphy will be very competitive in Florida for the open seat being vacated by Rubio.

Ted Strickland will be able to ride the Hillary wave to victory in OH,  he as well is quite popular.

Mark Kirk is very vulnerable in Illinois and pretty sure darn near anyone can beat him there.

I'm confident Maggie Hassan in NH is going to run for the Senate seat, and incumbent governors have good track records in unseating incumbent senators. 

That leaves NC, IA, and PA.   Those will probably be the hardest races but Burr is unpopular and Toomey isn't popular enough to survive a wave in a blue state.    Grassley is old as dirt and I'm pretty sure he's going to retire, he's just holding out till they figure things out behind closed doors.   

And there you have it,  Democrats pick up 8 seats and go up into the majority 54-46.

[Nyvin]

Sabato changed Wisconsin from toss up to "leans dem"

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

[Nyvin]

Sabato changed Wisconsin from toss up to "leans dem"

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

Too early.

I believe that PA was also changed from toss-up to Leans R

Yes, those were the two that were changed.   He did write this though about the PA election -

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http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-sorting-out-the-democrats-best-targets/

[Nyvin]

Updated ratings:

Updated ratings 2.0:

Moved Georgia from "Likely R" to "Safe R" (I don't see any way how Isakson could lose his seat: Democrats won't be able to put up a great candidate and if the race goes to a runoff because of Hillary narrowly winning the state, Isakson will be heavily favored).

Moved Arizona from "Leans R" to "Likely R". Now that McCain will likely survive the Primary, he should be fine in the general election.

After Ann Kirkpatrick announces her run for McCain's seat you're changing AZ to likely???    Kirkpatrick is pretty popular,  much more than McCain is...

[Nyvin]

Moreover, McCain is a great campaigner. He won by 24 points in 2010!

The rest of points at least have some merit, but this one certainly doesn't.   The AZ senate race was a joke in 2010...the Democrats had a mayor of a small LA town in fricking California to run for an "Arizona" Senate race.    He was a nobody, squeaked out a narrow win against a bunch of other nobodies, and received practically nothing for funding.   He spent less than $3 mil against McCain who spent more than $25 mil.  

Napolitano was originally going to be the nominee possibly, but Obama took her for Homeland Security Secretary.    

The AZ Senate race in 2010 speaks more about the ineptness of the Democrats in 2010 than it does anything about McCain.

[Nyvin]

Apparently the Koch Brothers think NH, PA, and OH are vulnerable....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senate-races_55d77eb4e4b08cd3359c20fd?utm_hp_ref=politics&kvcommref=mostpopular

[Nyvin]

I think Ayotte will win, even if Hassan runs for senate.  

Not sure. It will be  very close. Ayotte moderated substantially since her 2010 cmpaign, but still - not sure.

Agreed. NH is still a very difficult state for Republicans to win.

Since when? Bush carried it in 2000 and lost it by the barest of margins in 2004.

Bush didn't even win a majority of the vote in 2000.    Kerry's 2004 margin was larger than Bush's 2000 in both percentage and total votes.

It's highly unlikely Bush would've won the state without Nader on the ballot in 2000.

[Nyvin]

I think Ayotte will win, even if Hassan runs for senate.  

Not sure. It will be  very close. Ayotte moderated substantially since her 2010 cmpaign, but still - not sure.

Agreed. NH is still a very difficult state for Republicans to win.

Since when? Bush carried it in 2000 and lost it by the barest of margins in 2004.

Bush didn't even win a majority of the vote in 2000.    Kerry margin was larger than Bushes in both percentage and total votes.

It's highly unlikely Bush would've won the state without Nader on the ballot in 2000.

There you go again.

I think it is.

Agreed (at least in a close election).

It's gone Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections, and it may have gone to Gore in 2000 if it wasn't or Ralph Nader taking a whopping 4% of the vote.

No.

Why not?   Bush's margin was around 7,000 votes in NH,  Nader got about 22,000.  

Even if Gore got just "half" of Nader's votes it would've been more than enough even if you added Pat Buchanan's votes to Bush's total.

Pre-election polls in NH showed Bush with a bigger lead (4-5 points) when Nader was polling around 2%/3%. The whole assumption that a majority of Nader voters would have just voted for Gore if Nader wasn't on the ballot is false. Take a look at the exit polls:

http://www.cbsnews.com/campaign2000results/election/index.html

Nader got a majority of his votes from Perot supporters and voters who wouldn't have voted if Nader wasn't on the ballot.

Also:

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http://politizine.blogspot.de/2004/02/debunking-myth-ralph-nader-didnt-cost.html

Agreed (at least in a close election).

It's gone Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections, and it may have gone to Gore in 2000 if it wasn't or Ralph Nader taking a whopping 4% of the vote.

No.

Care to explain?  

Well, exit polls showed that Ralph Nader took many (I think it was a majority) of his votes from 1996 Reform Party voters (Ross Perot supporters) who were more likely to vote for Bush than Gore (also "proven" by the 2000 exit polls). Nader may have cost Al Gore FL, but probably not NH.

That being said, I still agree with you that NH is almost unwinnable for the GOP.

/sigh...

Okay fine, forget the Nader thing.   Bush's 2000 win was still incredibly weak and was probably more luck than anything.    It was also 15 years ago,  NH has changed quite a bit since then.

[Nyvin]

Ayotte isnt make or break the Senate right now. Dems are more focused on Portman, Toomey & Blunt; as well as Kirk & johnson. Dems have a celebrity candidate in Strickland.

The are all toast if Trump, rather than Jeb is nominee.

Dems are foolish to go after Portman and Kirk over Ayotte and Toomey.

Portman and Kirk are substantially more entrenched and compromise more in the Senate.

The Dems would be idiotic to not target Kirk though.

[Nyvin]

Likely D:
Illinois

Lean D:
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada

Tossup:
Florida
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Lean R:
North Carolina
Missouri
Indiana
Arizona

Likely R:
Kentucky
Louisiana
Alaska

As a side note...it looks like California will be choosing between two Democrats (Harris and Sanchez) in the General election.   The Republican vote is too divided while the Democrats have largely unified behind those two.

[Nyvin]

There you go again. The Pubs have a better chance of holding Wisconsin and Illinois than NH. Where is that laugh track you just linked to?  

Yes, IL and WI are much more Republican-friendly states than NH. Ayotte's at 42% right now, that's not good for an incumbent Republican in a blue state where most undecideds are Democrats. Also keep in mind that Carol Shea-Porter is going to Blanche Frank Guinta in the 1st district while Hillary Clinton is going to crush the Republican nominee, that won't help Ayotte in her reelection bid. I just don't think that enough women will split their ticket and support Clinton/Kuster or Shea-Porter/Ayotte. Hassan is quite beloved in NH, more so than Ayotte - especially among female voters. This would have been Leans/Likely R with Pappas, no doubt about it, but Hassan will be the nominee, so...

Guinta is going to be primaried by Dan Innis, who will easily defeat Shea-Porter.

NH-1 will be a toss up regards of the candidates.

[Nyvin]

Control of the Senate is still up in the balance, but Democrats are clearly favored, as Republicans need all four Toss-Ups.

This would be my exact map.