2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Don't know how to do the map, but:

Safe R: SC, GA, AL, LA, AR, KY, MO, IN, IA, OK, KS, ND, SD, ID, UT, AK
Likely R: AZ
Lean R: FL, OH
Tilt R: NC, NH, PA, NV*
Tossup: WI, IL
Tilt D:
Lean D: CO
Likely D: MD
Safe D: CA, OR, WA, HI, NY, VT, CT

Predictions:
A national GOP-friendly election results in President Scott Walker or Jeb Bush and results in a GOP pickup in Nevada and nothing else- GOP 55, DEM 45.

For 2018:
Safe R: TN, MS, TX, NE, WY, UT
Likely R: AZ, MO*
Lean R: IN*, ND*, MT*
Tilt R: NV
Tossup: WV, OH, VA, FL
Tilt D: PA
Lean D: NJ, WI, MI, NM
Likely D: MN
Safe D: CA, WA, MD, DE, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI
Safe King (I/D/R): ME

Prediction: Republican pickups in Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio.  King agrees to caucus with the Republicans, giving the GOP a 62-38 majority.  2020 does see it come back to Earth a bit, with the Democrats winning in Colorado and North Carolina, but the Republicans still hovering around 60 with a re-elected President and a pretty much permanent GOP House.  But, it is amazing that three major victories in a row (2014, 2016, 2018) would only barely give a filibuster-proof majority.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

All the Dems really need is four seats it will entail: Mastro, Bennett, Duckworth, Sestak and Feingold winning, and 1 of the following from NH, OH and FL. 

A wave of some sort would have tp entail more retirements from McCain, Rand Paul and Rubio.  Dems best hope in AZ was in 2012, KY in 2014, and a Christie or Huckabee Nomination in 2016, to win in FL.

Best bet in NH or Oh for the fourth seat.

They need 5 if the Republicans reclaim the White House, but I agree that the two are somewhat correlated, meaning that a Democratic wave in the Senate would probably net a Democratic President and vice versa.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Excluding completely safe seats:

Safe R Seats: 14
Likely R: AZ, IN, IA
Leans R: PA, NC
Tilts R: OH, NH
Toss-up: FL, IL, NV
Tilts D: CO, WI*
Leans D:
Likely D: CA, OR
Safe D Seats: 6

Iowa and Oregon are safe for their respective parties barring retirements.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Sabato changed Wisconsin from toss up to "leans dem"

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/

Too early.

I believe that PA was also changed from toss-up to Leans R

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Changes:
Iowa: Safe R --> Likely R
Indiana: Likely R --> Lean R
Florida: Tossup --> Lean R
Louisiana: Likely R --> Safe R
Illinois: Lean D --> Likely D
Pennsylvania: Lean R --> Likely R

Chance to Flip:

1. Illinois
2. Wisconsin
3. New Hampshire
4. Nevada
5. Ohio
6. Arizona
7. Florida
8. Indiana
9. Colorado
10. Pennsylvania
11. North Carolina
12. Missouri
13. Iowa

PA being Lean R is debatable, but Likely R just makes no sense.

I think Toomey will outperform Trump by about 7, and I have the PA Presidential race as Tilt R, so I think Toomey is strongly favored, right on the border of Lean R and Likely R.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

To win the Senate, Democrats need to win Illinois and Wisconsin and then three of Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Indiana.  I just don't see that happening, so the Senate is Tilt R at this point.