2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Kingpoleon]

Ayotte isnt make or break the Senate right now. Dems are more focused on Portman, Toomey & Blunt; as well as Kirk & johnson. Dems have a celebrity candidate in Strickland.

The are all toast if Trump, rather than Jeb is nominee.

Dems are foolish to go after Portman and Kirk over Ayotte and Toomey.

Portman and Kirk are substantially more entrenched and compromise more in the Senate.

[Kingpoleon]

Green is a Democrat retiring, Yellow is a Republican retiring.

My Senate Ratings:

I'm putting Illinois at toss-up because Duckworth is an awful campaigner and Mark Kirk, though gaffe-prone, is rather lovable.

[Kingpoleon]

I agree with Nyvin ratings but FL and may go GOP and OH will eventually be a tossup.

Oh my.

GOP landslide in the Senate. +2 R.

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 6(IL, IN, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 1(FL)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

[Kingpoleon]

If this is also the place for endorsements:
AK: Lisa Murkowski(Republican)
AR: Frank Gilbert(L)
AZ: Ann Kirkpatrick(Democratic)
CA: Loretta Sanchez(D)
CO: Bill Hammons(Unity)
FL: Patrick Murphy(D)
GA: Jim Barksdale(D)
IL: Mark Kirk(R)
IN: Evan Bayh(D)
LA: Unsure between Caroline Fayard(D) and Joseph Cao(R)
KS: Robert Garrard(Libertarian)
MO: Jason Kander(D)
NC: Deborah Ross(D)
NH: Kelly Ayotte(R)
NV: Joe Heck(R)
NY: Alex Merced(L)
OR: Ron Wyden(D)
VT: Scott Milne(R)
WI: Russ Feingold(D)

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 6(IL, IN, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 1(FL)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 5(IL, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 2(FL, IN)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

I'll call Tossups if I must: IL: Kirk, MO: Kander, NV: Heck, NH: Ayotte, PA: McGinty

That's D+1 in tossups. D+3 is the projected final result there. That gives us a 51-49 R Senate.

[Kingpoleon]

Safe R: 11
Likely R: 2(GA, KY)
Lean R: 4(AZ, LA, NC, OH)
Tossup: 5(IL, MO, NV, NH, PA)
Lean D: 2(FL, IN)
Likely D: 1(WI)
Safe D: 9
/34

I'll call Tossups if I must: IL: Kirk, MO: Kander, NV: Heck, NH: Ayotte, PA: McGinty

That's D+1 in tossups. D+3 is the projected final result there. That gives us a 51-49 R Senate.

[Kingpoleon]

Likely R: FL
Lean R: MO, NC, NH
Tilt R: NV
Pure tossup/Not called today: LA, PA
Lean D: IN
Likely D: WI, IL